Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

The GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away. Cold delayed until January 14th on the current run. It's just playing with you all...

[BigB0882]

I am not even expecting to hit freezing at this point. I have seen this one too many times. If it gets within the 3 day period then I MIGHT believe it.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Steve McCauleys Stat Method is not supporting any wintry weather for DFW this weekend or next week according to his FB page.

Of course it doesn't.

But then, If I remember correctly his Stat Method changes back and forth until about 48 hours prior.

[weatherguy425]

12z Euro drives Arctic front hard into Texas on Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like a helluva storm for the South Plains and Panhandle by Saturday night.

This weekend is looking more and more interesting.

While I'm 100% sure there will be further changes in model depictions between now and this weekend - neither ECMWF, nor CMC, really go 'bonkers' with any sort of precipitation. Light, overrunning, precip behind Arctic front late Saturday, through Sunday. IMO, would agree for lighter accum totals, if it were to occur verbatim.

Though, as mentioned, if more energy hangs-back or is deeper than progged, this could all change.

[wxman57]

Ryan Maue just posted an ECMWF height anomaly for Jan 6th. It's OK to post here as it's a made-public WxBELL image. Kind of a deep low over the Ohio Valley, I'd say...

Note that the 12Z Euro doesn't indicate any extreme cold for Texas, just mid to upper 20s for lows in the Dallas area the second week of January. Very cold for the NE U.S.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away. Cold delayed until January 14th on the current run. It's just playing with you all...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx12zdec30.gif

I'd say that is pretty damn cold. And while I want a Winter Storm, I'll just take some damn cold weather.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW Afternoon Discussion last part.

CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK IS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...BUT FROM WHAT I SEE OF THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE THE TEMPERATURES WILL
VERIFY AND THE PRECIP MAY BE OVERSTATED. JANUARY IS A DRY MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SO A FEW EVENTS COULD PUSH THE PRECIP ABOVE
AVERAGE.

[Portastorm]

Ryan Maue just posted an ECMWF height anomaly for Jan 6th. It's OK to post here as it's a made-public WxBELL image. Kind of a deep low over the Ohio Valley, I'd say...

Note that the 12Z Euro doesn't indicate any extreme cold for Texas, just mid to upper 20s for lows in the Dallas area the second week of January. Very cold for the NE U.S.

{Image deleted}

Poor fella ... you're really trying to stem the changing tide coming against you.

If the polar vortex ends up over the Great Lakes or, worst yet, in the Midwest ... we both know those surface temps progged are garbage. C'mon man.

[Portastorm]

12z Euro drives Arctic front hard into Texas on Saturday night into Sunday. Looks like a helluva storm for the South Plains and Panhandle by Saturday night.

This weekend is looking more and more interesting.

While I'm 100% sure there will be further changes in model depictions between now and this weekend - neither ECMWF, nor CMC, really go 'bonkers' with any sort of precipitation. Light, overrunning, precip behind Arctic front late Saturday, through Sunday. IMO, would agree for lighter accum totals, if it were to occur verbatim.

Though, as mentioned, if more energy hangs-back or is deeper than progged, this could all change.

12z Euro deeper and stronger than 0z run. That and some backside energy coming down the trough is what caught my attention, assuming the 12z Euro verifies.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That image is insane, has that ever happened before? The PV that far south?

[Rgv20]

So far today I have gotten 3/4 of an inch of Rain down here and its still coming down at a pretty good clip. Temperature wise it has been stuck at 41 in my back yard since this morning, classic winter day in the RGV (London in the Valley! )

[srainhoutx]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON DECEMBER 30 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 05 - 09 2014

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE PREDICTION OF A 500-HPA
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS TO CENTRAL ALASKA.
MODELS AGREE ON BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS IN A BROAD TROUGH PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. THE DETERMINISTIC
RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS,
WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS PREDICTING A TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE EAST. YESTERDAYS 12Z AND
TODAY'S 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF RUNS AGREE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS, AS DOES
TODAY'S 12Z GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN, THUS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION MOST
HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN TODAY'S BLEND.

THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS UNDER EXPECTED NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST TOOLS BASED
ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MODELS FAVOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CONFIDENCE IN BELOW-NORMAL MEAN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS LOW DUE TO AN EXPECTED WARM START TO
THE PERIOD, AND ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BEING STRONGER
THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATES. A STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WOULD FORCE THE
MID-CONTINENTAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE POSITION PREDICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS. THIS POSSIBILITY IS SUGGESTED BY BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS DETERMINISTIC
RUNS, AND ALSO IS FAVORED BY TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A POSITIVE 500-HPA
ANOMALY CENTER NEAR 51N, 141W. THIS ALSO LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE
PREDICTION WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDER THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE CHANCES
FOR NEAR TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS AND THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE WEST OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. MODELS INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
ELEVATED CHANCES ARE RESTRICTED TO A FAIRLY NARROW BAND, REFLECTING SHORT WAVES
MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN ALASKA, WITH ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FAVORED IN THE WEST, REFLECTING THE RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE DURING THE PERIOD.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

[perk]

Ryan Maue just posted an ECMWF height anomaly for Jan 6th. It's OK to post here as it's a made-public WxBELL image. Kind of a deep low over the Ohio Valley, I'd say...

Note that the 12Z Euro doesn't indicate any extreme cold for Texas, just mid to upper 20s for lows in the Dallas area the second week of January. Very cold for the NE U.S.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BcwRT3YCAAEbtbJ.png:large

I was wondering when Darth Vader aka(heat miser) was gonna pull out his lite saber and slice our hopes into shreds.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Will the brewing Nor'easter have any kind of effect to the upcoming patter change that seems to be emerging? I'm jealous of them right now for sure!

[wxman57]

I was wondering when Darth Vader aka(heat miser) was gonna pull out his lite saber and slice our hopes into shreds.

I'll regain control of the weather machine soon enough and winter will be history!

Meanwhile, I've been spending much of my remaining vacation time since the 20th under an electric blanket on the couch. We did get out for a 40 mile ride yesterday. Wasn't too bad with temps in the upper 60s and sunshine. Debating whether to ride the Houston Bike Club's annual New Year's Day ride. I have enough cold weather gear to ride with temps in the 50s. Would rather the temperature be closer to 100, though.

Here is a meteogram off the 18Z GFS. One semi not cold day, next Monday, the 6th. I'll be on jury duty that day...

[Ntxw]

I'm more interested in the progged HP system than the PV. The PV is a huge player for the lakes and northeast but for us the HP is the key. It will determine how far south and how cold. Anything above 1050mb aimed at the plains will bring a prolonged arctic blast. We would need a 1060+ for anything crazy to be up there with a Jan 62 or 49. We sha'll see, in the span of a few days from nothing to something so who knows. All we can do is go by the teleconnections and guess. Too close for comfort for wxman57, he will need a blowtorch to stay warm before us cold mongerers are done!

[wxman57]

I'm more interested in the progged HP system than the PV. The PV is a huge player for the lakes and northeast but for us the HP is the key. It will determine how far south and how cold. Anything above 1050mb aimed at the plains will bring a prolonged arctic blast. We would need a 1060+ for anything crazy to be up there with a Jan 62 or 49. We sha'll see, in the span of a few days from nothing to something so who knows. All we can do is go by the teleconnections and guess. Too close for comfort for wxman57, he will need a blowtorch to stay warm before us cold mongerers are done!

Enjoy it now, because in 60 days you'll be waving bye to winter and summer will be fast-approaching!

[Ntxw]

I'm more interested in the progged HP system than the PV. The PV is a huge player for the lakes and northeast but for us the HP is the key. It will determine how far south and how cold. Anything above 1050mb aimed at the plains will bring a prolonged arctic blast. We would need a 1060+ for anything crazy to be up there with a Jan 62 or 49. We sha'll see, in the span of a few days from nothing to something so who knows. All we can do is go by the teleconnections and guess. Too close for comfort for wxman57, he will need a blowtorch to stay warm before us cold mongerers are done!

Enjoy it now, because in 60 days you'll be waving bye to winter and summer will be fast-approaching!

El Nino potential says no! Those warm, sunny bike days sha'll be limited to clouds and rain

[ThunderSleetDreams]

60 days? More like 90 days plus

[katheria]

wxman57,

I say we send all these cold mongers to Thief River Falls MN for a few days

i think they would be begging to come home in 24 hours!

Tonight: Clear, with a low around -33. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Sunny and cold, with a high near -15. Wind chill values as low as -39. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -26. Wind chill values as low as -39. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

New Year's Day: Cloudy and cold, with a high near -7. Wind chill values as low as -34. Light south southeast wind.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -25. Calm wind

sorry portastorm, the ice storm this year was enough winter for me