Texas Winter 2020-2021

[orangeblood]

Euro Ensembles are warmer but differences over a 5 day period aren't too bad - 3-4 Deg F difference. Arctic Air is coming but crap shoot beyond 5 days

00zZ ENS


12Z ENS

[Iceresistance]

The 12z Euro is strangely lagging behind other models with the Arctic front, but I get all of the winter fun, I feel really bad for y'all down in Texas.


(12-hour setup to save time in-between storms)

Storm #1 is dependent on where the rain goes over to snow: Trace to 3 inches

Storm #2 is .25 to .5 inch of Ice

Storm #3 is 2-5 inches of snow

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS has stopped at 330 Hours for some reason, but I'll show the ensembles anyway . . .



My Personal Favorites are Members 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 12 & 14.

[rwfromkansas]

Not sure I would call a dusting to an inch for most people a lot. But, it's better than nothing.

Not that it matters at this point, because the event is still too far away, but snow falling at that temp would probably amount to more than depicted. I would imagine precip in the low 20s would have ratios a good deal higher than 10:1

Good point. I had some great snows growing up with high ratios due to temps in the mid-20s or so. That would be very rare for here, but awesome. We can't get too hung up on precip until closer, which is a good reminder.

[Iceresistance]

What is going on!? The CFS Model may have stopped working & the GEFS has stopped early!

[gboudx]

What is going on!? The CFS Model may have stopped working & the GEFS has stopped early!

wxman57 is re-calibrating them to show blow torch flow from the Pacific, and keeping the arctic air above his wall on the Canadian border. He's done it before, and he'll do it again. Don't let tales of his sore shoulder lull you into thinking he can't turn all this around.

[BTAYLOR5021]

How much of a chance does DFW airport have for a temp of 10 or below next week? A single digit temp would be crazy awesome.

[bubba hotep]

Euro Ensembles are warmer but differences over a 5 day period aren't too bad - 3-4 Deg F difference. Arctic Air is coming but crap shoot beyond 5 days

00zZ ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1612483200/1613476800-J7QQ0M7k24U.png

12Z ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1612526400/1613476800-9fVTy3yFIng.png

As Ntxw posted earlier, the cold air is up there in Canada now. How it comes down is the question. The 12z Euro is slower but it gets the cold much farther west. If you roll those two images forward, the 12z ENS 5 day will end up colder for Texas but just delayed vs 00z.

[wxman57]

Nevermind on the GEFS....I see that's run-to-run change.

Other questions...what can we do to protect our pipes? We have one of the subdivision homes from a few years ago....tons of good things like radiant barriers keeping out heat. But, not sure on the cold. I do have heated gloves coming today from Amazon.

Ideally, you want your attic to always be the same temperature as the outside air. This prevents moisture issues, which can be common in winter. I just went to Home Depot and got some faucet covers (like mittens for outdoor faucets) along with 6 strips of 1" foam pipe wrap. If your pipes are in your attic, then you can make sure you either insulate them with foam or run a strip of fiberglass insulation over them. For extreme cold, you may have to shut the water off to your house then open all spigots/faucets. Some of the water in your pipes may freeze, but the ice should have room to expand along the length of your pipes vs. cause them to burst.

[Iceresistance]

What is going on!? The CFS Model may have stopped working & the GEFS has stopped early!

wxman57 is re-calibrating them to show blow torch flow from the Pacific, and keeping the arctic air above his wall on the Canadian border. He's done it before, and he'll do it again. Don't let tales of his sore shoulder lull you into thinking he can't turn all this around.

I was not thinking about that!

It's the NCEP that is having Data Flow issues

[InfernoFlameCat]

Good info thanks because here in GA temps are going to dip into single digits.

[bubba hotep]

How much of a chance does DFW airport have for a temp of 10 or below next week? A single digit temp would be crazy awesome.

I don't know chances but I can't ever remember so many runs across multiple models showing the potential like this sequence.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Note: This thread is as alive as a thread with a Cat 5 bearing down on the USA.

[wxman57]

What is going on!? The CFS Model may have stopped working & the GEFS has stopped early!

wxman57 is re-calibrating them to show blow torch flow from the Pacific, and keeping the arctic air above his wall on the Canadian border. He's done it before, and he'll do it again. Don't let tales of his sore shoulder lull you into thinking he can't turn all this around.

Funny you should mention me. I have already taken hold of the ECMWF model. Below is a graph of the GFS, CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles predictions for next weekend. This is from today's 12Z runs. Euro now only predicts a light freeze in Houston next Sunday. Same morning, it has 11F in D-FW.

[Iceresistance]

Note: This thread is as alive as a thread with a Cat 5 bearing down on the USA.

CAT 5 Cold blast? Maybe

[InfernoFlameCat]

What is going on!? The CFS Model may have stopped working & the GEFS has stopped early!

wxman57 is re-calibrating them to show blow torch flow from the Pacific, and keeping the arctic air above his wall on the Canadian border. He's done it before, and he'll do it again. Don't let tales of his sore shoulder lull you into thinking he can't turn all this around.

Funny you should mention me. I have already taken hold of the ECMWF model. Below is a graph of the GFS, CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles predictions for next weekend. This is from today's 12Z runs. Euro now only predicts a light freeze in Houston next Sunday. Same morning, it has 11F in D-FW.

http://wxman57.com/images/HOUTemps12ZFeb5.JPG

Wxman57: Euro model is my best bet. What actually happens: Canadian model. Keep your wall up Wxman57!

[wxman57]

It seems very strange, sleeting here in Ville Platte La, at 48 degrees.

HRRR indicates freezing level is at about 750mb (maybe 8500 ft). There is no moisture in sub-freezing air. If this is true, then the only thing you could be seeing is small hail. Sleet is frozen rain.

[Iceresistance]

wxman57 is re-calibrating them to show blow torch flow from the Pacific, and keeping the arctic air above his wall on the Canadian border. He's done it before, and he'll do it again. Don't let tales of his sore shoulder lull you into thinking he can't turn all this around.

Funny you should mention me. I have already taken hold of the ECMWF model. Below is a graph of the GFS, CMC, Euro, and GFS ensembles predictions for next weekend. This is from today's 12Z runs. Euro now only predicts a light freeze in Houston next Sunday. Same morning, it has 11F in D-FW.

http://wxman57.com/images/HOUTemps12ZFeb5.JPG

Wxman57: Euro model is my best bet. What actually happens: Canadian model. Keep your wall up Wxman57!

I'd say the best model is the GFS model even though the Euro has the Highest Accuracy (Maybe why Wxman57 took control of the Euro is because it has the highest chance of being accurate. )

[txtwister78]

Part of EWX (AUS/SAT NWS) AFD that is important to remember as it relates to the models (as I and others have discussed)

It should also be pointed out that there is a rather large spread in temperatures with the GEFS members. Global models can struggle this far south with shallow airmass like this. Historically colder
guidance has verified max temperatures better with these types of dense, arctic air masses with clouds and precip. With that said, we have have trended colder Thursday and Friday. Highs on Thursday are
forecast generally in the 40s, with upper 30s across the Hill Country and near 50 along the Rio Grande. Highs on Friday, as the re- enforcing surge arrives, are currently only forecast in the mid to
upper 30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, to low 40s south, with a widespread freeze Friday morning. Blustery northeast winds will make it feel even colder, with wind chill values by Friday
morning in the teens across many areas, possibly single digits in some Hill Country locations.

[txtwister78]

Updated CPC guidance for temps (days 6-10 outlook)