Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm actually quite interested in this next possible storm, unlike the storm the next few days. I just have a feeling that this might be if not the big one, at least one of the bigger ones, for this season. Also it isn't one of those case where it doesn't really start to get its' act together until it is beginning a pull away from the coast.

[Portastorm]

Looks like winter might be done after all just as I thought. Sure felt like an April day today.

Please do not focus on one model solution. Thank you.

Well in that case, I guess I can't post how the new 12z run of the European is icy cold for Texas starting Saturday.

You guys are spoiling all my fun!

Oh ... the link ... here it is:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif

No, I was just saying to look at the overall trend. I wasn't saying you couldn't look at one model solution, just don't put too much stock into it!

Oh I know ... I was j/k. You're absolutely right. I think forecasters will have their work cut out for them in the southern Plains for the month of February. It's going to take more than just computer models to handle this pattern.

[Portastorm]

By the way, if the last 2 runs of the Euro would verify ... the high temp in Austin on Saturday would be in the mid to upper 40s and the lows would be near freezing. Right now, NWS is saying highs in the mid 60s on Saturday. Gonna be interesting to see how it all unfolds this coming week. Pretty exciting stuff!

[Extremeweatherguy]

By the way, if the last 2 runs of the Euro would verify ... the high temp in Austin on Saturday would be in the mid to upper 40s and the lows would be near freezing. Right now, NWS is saying highs in the mid 60s on Saturday. Gonna be interesting to see how it all unfolds this coming week. Pretty exciting stuff!

yeah, I think the NWS will be revising their forecasts soon. If the models are right, I think most of central and SE Texas have a hard time getting above 50 this weekend (as you said).

[vbhoutex]

I'm actually quite interested in this next possible storm, unlike the storm the next few days. I just have a feeling that this might be if not the big one, at least one of the bigger ones, for this season. Also it isn't one of those case where it doesn't really start to get its' act together until it is beginning a pull away from the coast.

What makes you think this?

[ETXHAMXYL]

The NWS in FTWORTH has my area in the 70's on Sunday, Accuweather has us in the 60's. No mention of any change this weekend.
However Accuweather has us dropping into the 50's by the 7th with rain starting off in the 50s but dropping to mix rain and snow in the upper 20's and then mix again the next morning only changing back to rain in the 50's the next day. The rest of that week the temps highs are listed in the upper 40's. But you know accuweather that could change again with each run.
I can say this...don't know if it counts for much, but my grey haired Cat has more hair in her coat than she had in the Dec. cold spell. After that she started shedding, but now her coat is so thick and she is eating all the time. Maybe Mother nature knows more ahead of time then we humans are allowed to know.

[Rieyeuxs]

I hate disprove the mother nature stories, but my dogs are shedding like crazy and it's earlier for them to do so. Granted I can't read the models as well as most others, I have noticed that the NWS is issuing highs in the 70's for the Deep South next weekend. If it's going to get cold, as in snow cold, it looking less and lee likely.

Daffodils are up, serious budding on the trees....

[Tyler]

By the way, if the last 2 runs of the Euro would verify ... the high temp in Austin on Saturday would be in the mid to upper 40s and the lows would be near freezing. Right now, NWS is saying highs in the mid 60s on Saturday. Gonna be interesting to see how it all unfolds this coming week. Pretty exciting stuff!

The NWS will bust wildly all accross the south for the next weekend. NWS Houston has highs in the lows 70's and lows in the 50's. DON'T THINK SO!

[Tyler]

I hate disprove the mother nature stories, but my dogs are shedding like crazy and it's earlier for them to do so. Granted I can't read the models as well as most others, I have noticed that the NWS is issuing highs in the 70's for the Deep South next weekend. If it's going to get cold, as in snow cold, it looking less and lee likely.

Daffodils are up, serious budding on the trees....

Don't worry, those NWS forecasts are in serious trouble. The EURO has been very consistent with the storm and cold next weekend, and perhaps the GFS is finally catching on...

[ETXHAMXYL]

I hate disprove the mother nature stories, but my dogs are shedding like crazy and it's earlier for them to do so. Granted I can't read the models as well as most others, I have noticed that the NWS is issuing highs in the 70's for the Deep South next weekend. If it's going to get cold, as in snow cold, it looking less and lee likely.

Daffodils are up, serious budding on the trees....

Well you are in Ala. right? So maybe it will get colder here in my part of the woods so my cats know that and maybe your dogs over there in your neck of the woods know that it may stay warm so they are shedding. Or maybe Cats are smarter than Dogs? LOL Who knows, except for the Creator of cats, dogs, guessing weather people, and the weather. LOL

[Brent]

I hate disprove the mother nature stories, but my dogs are shedding like crazy and it's earlier for them to do so. Granted I can't read the models as well as most others, I have noticed that the NWS is issuing highs in the 70's for the Deep South next weekend. If it's going to get cold, as in snow cold, it looking less and lee likely.

Daffodils are up, serious budding on the trees....

I know one thing, it's not going to be next weekend.

[aggiecutter]

The Canadian is carving a deep trough down the plains next weekend...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_144.jpg

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hate disprove the mother nature stories, but my dogs are shedding like crazy and it's earlier for them to do so. Granted I can't read the models as well as most others, I have noticed that the NWS is issuing highs in the 70's for the Deep South next weekend. If it's going to get cold, as in snow cold, it looking less and lee likely.

Daffodils are up, serious budding on the trees....

I know one thing, it's not going to be next weekend.

well you can think that if you want, but when you notice a chill in the air next weekend, don't tell me that I didn't warn you. Also, next weekend will probably only be the start of this pattern. Remember, next Saturday is only 6 days away. It is beginning to look more and more likely that next weekend will be the start to the cold followed by a cold week of the 5th-12th...and may be a colder week of the 12th-19th.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Above is the EURO for day 7. Looks mighty cold to me! (Day 6 looks just as cold)

**May take a while for the picture to load**

[Rieyeuxs]

ETXHAMXYL wrote:

Or maybe Cats are smarter than Dogs?

Thems fight'n words!

[jkt21787]

That big weekend storm no longer exists on the GFS run, at least in a way that would bring about the pattern change, much less the winter storm/severe weather outbreak it showed at 18z.

Personally, I prefer something in the middle of the 18z and 0z, not a major bomb and subsequent massive severe weather event and winter storm, but not a non-event either like the new GFS is practically hinting at.

[Brent]

well you can think that if you want, but when you notice a chill in the air next weekend, don't tell me that I didn't warn you. Also, next weekend will probably only be the start of this pattern. Remember, next Saturday is only 6 days away. It is beginning to look more and more likely that next weekend will be the start to the cold followed by a cold week of the 5th-12th...and may be a colder week of the 12th-19th.

I want cold just as much as you do, but I'm getting sick and tired of hearing about it and it never happening. Pretty soon it's going to be April and we're still going to be waiting on it.

I hope it does get cold, but I don't see it getting REALLY cold(as in cold for Early February), anytime soon.

[Brent]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/ecmwf_850_temp_168.gif

Above is the EURO for day 7. Looks mighty cold to me! (Day 6 looks just as cold)

**May take a while for the picture to load**

Hmmmmm....

[Tyler]

On days 7 and 8, a ridge starts building in the west, and that is before hour 180, and by days 9 and 10, the ridge is very strong in the west, with cold arctic air flowing into the US. Good signs people! The pattern change is now closer than its ever been!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[southerngale]

On days 7 and 8, a ridge starts building in the west, and that is before hour 180, and by days 9 and 10, the ridge is very strong in the west, with cold arctic air flowing into the US. Good signs people! The pattern change is now closer than its ever been!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

But what about the GFS losing it as jkt21787 just posted?