Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

FWIW DFW is -5.5F for Jan so far. Weekend cold air mass will keep it below. Barring a major torch, this month will be below normal and we have about made our annual snowfall.

[DallasAg]

I am trying to go with LC and the optimistic feel we had recently that February will be cold and wet. I hope.

But, hard not to admit this is a weird El Nino.

Today's the 3rd Thursday of the month, so new monthly outlooks from CPC should be out this afternoon sometime. Will be interesting to see what they think.

[CaptinCrunch]

That’s wild great info.

Here's an animated view each year. It isn't the darkest reds but rather expansion of the overall field. Something similar is happening in the Atlantic since also that is effecting ENSO.

https://i.imgur.com/efW5Yk8.gif

Best theory I've heard is an uptick in geothermal activity in both basins

That area has seen a lot of activity along the "Ring of Fire" and It's also an area of many underwater geothermal vents so that may have a part to play?

I agree, February will be for the most part a cold month.

[Ntxw]

Here's an animated view each year. It isn't the darkest reds but rather expansion of the overall field. Something similar is happening in the Atlantic since also that is effecting ENSO.

https://i.imgur.com/efW5Yk8.gif

Best theory I've heard is an uptick in geothermal activity in both basins

That area has seen a lot of activity along the "Ring of Fire" and It's also an area of many underwater geothermal vents so that may have a part to play?

I agree, February will be for the most part a cold month.

Whatever the reason, ENSO is highly dependent. When you have a strong gradient (warm west, cold east) the base state tends to be La Nina. During an El Nino the western warmth is distributed more evenly to the east, thus lesser gradient along the equatorial Pacific. Bathtub slosh theory. We are not getting enough sloshing to the east, instead continue to pile warm waters at the surface in the west. There are other factors at play such as NPMM, SPMM, PDO etc but for the past decade it has favored one way more than the other.

[vxskaxv]

Any viable current predictions for next weeks rain event in Galveston? Just trying to understand why some locals are even remotely talking about Harvey or Alison type setups.

@wxman57

[Iceresistance]

Y'all should not complain about the rainfall in SE Texas and into Louisiana.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0jMR.gif

[Tammie]

Any viable current predictions for next weeks rain event in Galveston? Just trying to understand why some locals are even remotely talking about Harvey or Alison type setups.

@wxman57

Cosgrove explained it well this morning:
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/18/ ... louisiana/

[Cpv17]

Y'all should not complain about the rainfall in SE Texas and into Louisiana.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0jMR.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0jMR.gif

This needs to expand west.

[gboudx]

This is from Jeff Lindner regarding the rain next week. He also included a graphic from Pivotal Weather, but it doesn't paste from email. It had a bullseye of 6"+ of rain over the Galveston area, but all of SETX within the 3"+ area. This is forecasted over 7 days.

Widespread rainfall…some heavy…increasingly likely next week.

The area will transition out of the cold weather and into an active weather pattern after the weekend into much of next week with good chances for multi bouts of rainfall some of which will be heavy.

Another cold front will move across the area this evening ushering in a modified arctic air mass…the core of this air mass passes to our northeast, so SE TX will feel a glancing blow compared to early this week. Low temperatures Saturday AM in the 27-34 range over the reach with many having a light freeze.

By late this weekend a large upper level trough will begin to organize over the SW US and only slowly move eastward into the southern plains. This feature will help to bring both low level Gulf moisture and upper level Pacific moisture into the region as early as late Sunday on into the early to mid part of next week. A series of upper level disturbances will pass over this increasingly moisture laden air mass producing periods of showers and possibly thunderstorms with some heavy rainfall. Model guidance is impressive with moisture values over the region for mid to late January and this will bring a threat for heavy rainfall…it will be interesting to see if we will actually get the levels of moisture forecasted after the recent cold frontal intrusions well out into the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal boundary may also work into the area at some point Mon-Wed which could help assist in the rainfall production and organization of showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall Amounts:
As of now widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches will be possible over a 3-4 day period. Guidance has been showing several rounds of rainfall with breaks in between rounds. Isolated higher totals will be possible. Concern would be if any cell training in bands develops and anchors the heavier rainfall for a period of time over any one location. Since we are still a few days out, the high resolution guidance which can sometimes help define the better threat area is not available…so any confidence on where the heavier rains may fall will not be available until the weekend. Another aspect on rainfall rates will be if we can actually get any deeper convection (thunderstorms) going…and that is questionable at this time which may help keep rainfall rates in a more manageable position.

Hydro:
While rainfall has been lacking of late, the recent hard freezes have resulted in a lack of vegetation cover and additionally the cold temperatures make the ground harder and less porous….thus increasing run-off potential. While forecasted rainfall does not pose a high threat for creek and bayou flooding, responses may be more than normally expected given the background conditions in place. Additionally, higher rainfall rates could result in street flooding. With the spread out and widespread nature of the rainfall…slower response creeks and larger rivers systems would tend to have greater rises than the faster responding urban bayous systems.

[IcyTundra]

Y'all should not complain about the rainfall in SE Texas and into Louisiana.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0jMR.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0jMR.gif

I'll complain if there is flooding.

[Cpv17]

Y'all should not complain about the rainfall in SE Texas and into Louisiana.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0jMR.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0jMR.gif

I'll complain if there is flooding.

Your area looks to be about in the bullseye right now.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Wind Advisory for up here tonight. Potential 45-50 mph gusts with this front. Low tonight back into the teens with probably below freezing high for tomorrow. Winter is back for a couple of days!

[rwfromkansas]

Same old same old.

Far east TX bullseye.

[Brent]

Wind Advisory for up here tonight. Potential 45-50 mph gusts with this front. Low tonight back into the teens with probably below freezing high for tomorrow. Winter is back for a couple of days!

Yup we just dropped below freezing til Sunday again.

Totally dry front though ugh. My friend in Wichita did report some flurries but not here

[Cpv17]

Same old same old.

Far east TX bullseye.

I’m hoping it trends back west. Don’t like this Louisiana trend today.

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM shows quite a bit of freezing rain across the northern half of TX Sunday night into Monday morning. Cold air remains in place longer allowing a large area to see ice accumulations over 0.25 inch. Hope that is overdone...

[bubba hotep]

0z NAM shows quite a bit of freezing rain across the northern half of TX Sunday night into Monday morning. Cold air remains in place longer allowing a large area to see ice accumulations over 0.25 inch. Hope that is overdone...

NAMmmed!

[bubba hotep]

[HockeyTx82]

0z NAM shows quite a bit of freezing rain across the northern half of TX Sunday night into Monday morning. Cold air remains in place longer allowing a large area to see ice accumulations over 0.25 inch. Hope that is overdone...

NAMmmed!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2024011900/084/zr_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Yup. That's right over me for the Bullseye in Denton County. Buckle up.

Any other model agreements?

[bubba hotep]

The new Euro Weeklies are very Ninoisque, showing a wet, cool Southern Plains and a Canada-wide torch.