Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[BigB0882]

Oh, I agree, I am not expecting anything to materialize BUT at least is something to watch. We don't have very many weeks left to watch, it would be rare to see anything down here after March begins. Besides, this isn't showing any snow for us so it isn't like a big storm that we know will disappear. Since it isn't there now maybe it can pop up later, lol

[Brent]

I'm ready for spring and tornadoes. Tired of wasting time on snowstorms that don't materialize, oh and sick of this endless cold for weeks on end.

[MississippiWx]

I'm ready for spring and tornadoes. Tired of wasting time on snowstorms that don't materialize, oh and sick of this endless cold for weeks on end.

Lol...You can have the tornadoes. There is nothing fun about one of those.

[BigB0882]

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

GFS hasn't been kind to us along the coast but this shows a period of SN in Baton Rouge. Seems wacky but it is there, also shows it quite cold on the 4th, highs in the upper 30's. I thought the GFS was keeping the cold well to our West...hmmm

[Metalicwx220]

I'm ready for spring and tornadoes. Tired of wasting time on snowstorms that don't materialize, oh and sick of this endless cold for weeks on end.

Exactly! BRING on the thunderstorms with 58mph winds. I love these storms. Says to avoid the windows im in the windows during the whole storm. LOl

[Metalicwx220]

Wednesday
Feb 2
Chance for rain and thunder 71°Lo 53°
more Thursday
Feb 3
Cloudy, rain possible; cooler 58°Lo 37°
Cooler than yesterday. lol. Also we have rain in the forecast for almost two weeks. A few sunny days here and there next week and so on.

[Ivanhater]

We will see what happens with the upcoming system, the models are still having a hard time with the extremely cold air coming out of Canada.

Regardless, the GFS has been painting an extreme February coming up.

1052 High in the U.S and reinforced by an even stronger High (1056) coming out of Canada, accompanied by an active Southern jet. February looks very interesting.

[hurricanehunter69]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false Wow! you don't see too many snow maps that widespread that far south...? I gotta really good feelin about this one!

[Ivanhater]

06z DGEX

[heelgolfer]

06z DGEX

So this is saying SE NC is supposed to be covered in a foot of snow by Feb 5th?

[Brent]

Tuesday Night...Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

LOL what snow/cold?

[BigB0882]

I am not expecting anything until we can get a -NAO again. That seems to be what is killing us with this storm. I'm just not sure if we will before Feb is done.

[Ivanhater]

While not certain yet, the reason for possible severe wx is because the low cuts west so much of the SE is in the warm sector. If the deep south gets snow, it will be after the cold outbreak and energy swinging through from the SW. If you take a look at the GFS long range, NW Canada continues to crank out ridiculous High pressure maxes and keeps an active Southern jet. It would be crazy to try to pinpoint snow but the pattern is as good as we can ask for in February.

[BigB0882]

Is there any chance the NAO will go negative within the next 2-3 weeks?

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from this afternoon's NWS discussion out of Shreveport, LA.

20 CENTS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF BREAK
FROM RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ON THIS DAY. THEN A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR COMING
IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE COLDEST OF THE
MODELS. ECMWF BRINGS IN THE COLDEST AIR...BUT NOW IS DRY SLOTTING
US BEHIND THE RAPIDLY PROGRESSING LOW. WHILE GFS HOLDS IN THE
MOISTURE...BUT DOES NOT GIVE US THE DEEP COLD AIR. SO FOR A
SCENARIO...I KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS MAYBE WE COULD GET THE ECMWF/S COLD AIR AND THE GFS/S
MOISTURE. ANYWAY...THIS IS RATHER ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF HOPE.

[Stormcenter]

Below is the NWS afternoon discussion out of New Orleans.
It amazes me how different the discussions and actual forecast can
be from NWS bureau to another. There isn't even any mention of any
very cold air.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER TEXAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER UPPER
SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL HELP SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EASTWARD...THEY WILL FORCE A WARM
FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA SHOULD BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING IN FROM THE GULF...COMBINED WITH
THE FORCING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL JET...SHOULD RESULT
IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...
AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS.

THE LOW WILL FORCE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NO PRECIP
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE
IS THAT IF THE COLD FRONT STALLS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED...WE COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY
OR EVEN THURSDAY.

[BigB0882]

Well that might be because the temps around New Orleans may not be any colder than they have been the last month or so. High in the 50's? We have had that non stop since Christmas. I see no reason to expect highs colder than the 50's unless the models start showing the cold air coming further East.

[wxman57]

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

GFS hasn't been kind to us along the coast but this shows a period of SN in Baton Rouge. Seems wacky but it is there, also shows it quite cold on the 4th, highs in the upper 30's. I thought the GFS was keeping the cold well to our West...hmmm

I can't see any precip forecast in that text past the 2nd, and that's all rain.

[BigB0882]

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbtr.txt

GFS hasn't been kind to us along the coast but this shows a period of SN in Baton Rouge. Seems wacky but it is there, also shows it quite cold on the 4th, highs in the upper 30's. I thought the GFS was keeping the cold well to our West...hmmm

I can't see any precip forecast in that text past the 2nd, and that's all rain.

It has since updated, it updates twice a day at midnight and noon central time. As usual, it completely changed and now my post is very confusing.

[Metalicwx220]

06z DGEX

So this is saying SE NC is supposed to be covered in a foot of snow by Feb 5th?

Your foot disappeared like that. LOL WHATs that area of snow in central georgia?