Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3141 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:38 am

Portastorm wrote:
orangeblood wrote:There are some seriously aggressive ENS members with the storm next weekend....several members showing 1048+ HP's draped across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes with a trough digging into the southwest US. Increasing potential for another possible winter event next weekend :cold:


orangeblood, I don't know. That would go against pretty much everything I am seeing on the models and social media comments from the national "experts." Seems like we're in for a several week period of anomalous warmth. That being said, I know you look at these things closely and you often pick up on stuff that most of the rest of us don't see. So, I hope you're right! :D


It's true there is anomalous warmth and it will happen early to middle of next week. However as we mentioned the AO (a little iffy on this one) is forecasted negative and the WPO stays negative. The WPO has been dumping really cold air in Canada, just take a look at how they saw temps for today. It's a very risky pattern Portastorm, you can get quick hitting cold even in a warm pattern. That Pacific line of storms is no easy forecast for the models. You spin it in the GOA it's one thing, if it drives into land to the SW of us you get a different thing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3142 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:46 am

Speaking of warmth, It's warm in Florida

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Departure from normal

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3143 Postby orangeblood » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:47 am

Portastorm wrote:
orangeblood wrote:There are some seriously aggressive ENS members with the storm next weekend....several members showing 1048+ HP's draped across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes with a trough digging into the southwest US. Increasing potential for another possible winter event next weekend :cold:


orangeblood, I don't know. That would go against pretty much everything I am seeing on the models and social media comments from the national "experts." Seems like we're in for a several week period of anomalous warmth. That being said, I know you look at these things closely and you often pick up on stuff that most of the rest of us don't see. So, I hope you're right! :D


Well with all of this Arctic Cold around North America and continued cross polar flow projected over the next 7 days, I believe the cold will beat out any attempted warm up over the next 2 weeks. Sometimes models and social media members mistake the 500 mb chart as to what is occurring at the surface but sometimes you have to be very careful taking that approach. This low level Arctic Air is going to be very difficult to dislodge from this pattern and won't take much to overwhelm the pattern once again and sure enough it appears what we are seeing that late next week.

There is actually numerous similarities with the pattern at the surface late next week on all 3 Global Models - look at the position and strength of the HP draped across the plains late next week (on all 3 Global Models), any trough coming out of the southwest will attack that HP and potentially create quite a winter storm

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Last edited by orangeblood on Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3144 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:48 am

Certainly is not warm today my phone is still reading 19 degrees :froze:

Now we just need surprise moisture lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3145 Postby JayDT » Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:56 am

Is it colder than what they were forecasting?? I don't remember seeing that we would be at 22 degrees at this time..
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3146 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:02 am

Starting to snow pretty good here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3147 Postby DonWrk » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:06 am

Think a few surprises are going to occur through this evening if if the radar keeps filling in like it is to the west!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3148 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:11 am

DonWrk wrote:Think a few surprises are going to occur through this evening if if the radar keeps filling in like it is to the west!


The areas along the red river and immediate surrounding counties could do well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3149 Postby STX Expat » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:16 am

What Don, Yukon and Ntwx said. Things are covering up pretty well here. Much better than I anticipated for sure. Seems we're getting our biggest bursts when there are no RADAR returns at all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3150 Postby Theepicman116 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:17 am

Lake Enhanced snow has stopped in Keller. :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3151 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:18 am

STX Expat wrote:What Don, Yukon and Ntwx said. Things are covering up pretty well here. Much better than I anticipated for sure. Seems we're getting our biggest bursts when there are no RADAR returns at all.


It's happened before when temps are really cold and dendritic growth is optimum. The heavier radar returns can kickstart it but then it keeps going. But that -12C starting point low to the ground (850s) and dendrites are formed low in the atmosphere radar can miss it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3152 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:31 am

This lake effect-lake enhanced stuff looks legit. I was going through radar scans and the band started around the vicinity of Lake Lewisville and moved South/Southwest instead of west to east. There is a N/NE wind upstream of the lake and if you think about it FW/Tarrant county is a bit elevated than east of I-35. Very intriguing indeed.

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3153 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:33 am

Moderate Sleet Shower at Hwy 290 and Beltway 8 in Houston. Hard enough to accumulate for a little while in beds of trucks and on top of cars.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3154 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:36 am

Faucet mishap when a screw on plastic Y-valve (that drips into the dog's water bucket) froze and ruptured this morning.

The result? A massive ice storm on my back deck -- where's Jim Cantore?!?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3155 Postby Snowman67 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:36 am

Some really cold air in the U.S. A buddy of mine who lives in Sisters, OR just texted me that it is -22F there (elevation ~3000Ft).
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3156 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:40 am

GFS holds on to next weekend cold. 30s/40s on Saturday/Sunday.

Cold Front arrives in HGX around lunch time Saturday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3157 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:41 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3158 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:49 am

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So close, yet so far away!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3159 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:50 am

Just for you Wxman57. :cold:

And Portastorm, THIS is how you do freezing drizzle (frozen faucet effect drizzle, that is). :D

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#3160 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:51 am

:uarrow:

Texas Snowman ... ha ha! That is awesome. Those icicles are scary looking.
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