Texas Winter 2023-2024

[gpsnowman]

The wind is howling and cold!! Woke me up in time to watch Novak at the Australian Open.

[Tammie]

The NAM isn’t backing off the freezing rain for parts of north Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. Even with a quick thaw late morning/early afternoon Monday, I can see tons of traffic troubles headed our way if it verifies.

[Gotwood]

The NAM isn’t backing off the freezing rain for parts of north Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. Even with a quick thaw late morning/early afternoon Monday, I can see tons of traffic troubles headed our way if it verifies.

I doubt it. It would be different if temps were in the upper 20s but with temps close to freezing and temps in the upper levels warm you might just see a tad of ice on trees and stuff.

[Tammie]

The NAM isn’t backing off the freezing rain for parts of north Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. Even with a quick thaw late morning/early afternoon Monday, I can see tons of traffic troubles headed our way if it verifies.

I doubt it. It would be different if temps were in the upper 20s but with temps close to freezing and temps in the upper levels warm you might just see a tad of ice on trees and stuff.

I live a mile from highways 82 and 75. Lots of overpasses, bridges and construction. There will be road problems if this verifies.

[Fifty Rock]

The NAM isn’t backing off the freezing rain for parts of north Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. Even with a quick thaw late morning/early afternoon Monday, I can see tons of traffic troubles headed our way if it verifies.

I doubt it. It would be different if temps were in the upper 20s but with temps close to freezing and temps in the upper levels warm you might just see a tad of ice on trees and stuff.

I live a mile from highways 82 and 75. Lots of overpasses, bridges and construction. There will be road problems if this verifies.

I would only worry about bridges, but they will probably be treated already. This should be a low impact if that.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Made it down to 15 this morning with a -1 windchill.

[orangeblood]

Here's an animated view each year. It isn't the darkest reds but rather expansion of the overall field. Something similar is happening in the Atlantic since also that is effecting ENSO.

https://i.imgur.com/efW5Yk8.gif

Best theory I've heard is an uptick in geothermal activity in both basins

That area has seen a lot of activity along the "Ring of Fire" and It's also an area of many underwater geothermal vents so that may have a part to play?

I agree, February will be for the most part a cold month.

Joe Bastardi is all over it, saying that the line of oceanic hot spots almost perfectly coincides with the line of seismic events in that part of the Pacific

[Iceresistance]

The NAM isn’t backing off the freezing rain for parts of north Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. Even with a quick thaw late morning/early afternoon Monday, I can see tons of traffic troubles headed our way if it verifies.

KTWV said I could get up to 1/2 inch of Ice, yikes.

[Tammie]

The NAM isn’t backing off the freezing rain for parts of north Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. Even with a quick thaw late morning/early afternoon Monday, I can see tons of traffic troubles headed our way if it verifies.

KTWV said I could get up to 1/2 inch of Ice, yikes.

I know! Everyone seems to be of the opinion it will be a non-event. 1/2” of ice will be crippling, even for a few hours!

[Ntxw]

Overnight suite of models looks mild until mid February, after this bout of cold.

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner regarding the rain next week for SETX.

Hard Freeze Warning tonight/Saturday AM for areas generally north and west of metro Houston.

Widespread rainfall next week…some heavy.

Another arctic cold front will push across the area this morning ushering in another cold air mass. The trajectory of this air mass is more toward the SE US so we will get a glancing blow here in SE TX. However, this air mass will be cold enough to result in a freeze across the entire area tonight into Saturday morning and a hard freeze to the north and west of the Houston metro area. Temperatures will fall to the upper 20’s along the coast, mid 20’s along the I-10 corridor, and low 20’s north of HWY 105.

Upper level pattern undergoes changes over the weekend as a large slow moving upper level trough develops over northern MX. As the cold arctic surface high of today begins to move eastward over the weekend deep southerly flow will begin to return moisture to the area as early as late Sunday. Additionally, a trough will begin to form over the TX coast late Sunday into Monday. With the slow moving upper low to the west southwest flow aloft will bring copious Pacific moisture in the upper level into Texas along with several disturbances that will help aide in lift across the area. A fairly potent disturbance looks to arrive across the area on Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Additional disturbances will then move across the area through mid week with rounds of rainfall. Moisture levels are forecasted to be near maximum values for mid to late January which increases the risk of heavy rainfall when combined with the dynamics of this weather system.

Rainfall Amounts:
There has not been much change in the rainfall numbers over the last 24 hours with widespread amounts of 3-5 inches increasingly likely over a 3-4 day period. Monday is starting to key in as a day where some of the heavier rains could fall along with potentially some higher hourly rates in the 1-2 inch range if we get thunderstorms going over the area. Isolated higher totals are certainly possible and over the next 36-48 hours we will begin to get the higher resolution guidance that will help with rainfall amounts and possibly the location of some of the higher totals. Given the slow moving nature of the entire weather system, there is concern for repeat cell training which could locally enhance the rainfall amounts and flood/flash flood threat.

Hydro:
While the area has not seen widespread rainfall in a while, the time of year and post recent hard freezes have primed the area for maximum run-off potential. Cold season rainfall events generally produce greater run-off than warm season due to the cold hard ground and lack of lush vegetation cover this time of year. The upcoming pattern will almost certainly bring responses to area watersheds and the set up favors the greater and longer duration responses on those watersheds that respond slower to rainfall (Cypress Creek, Spring Creek, Lt Cypress Creek, Luce Bayou, Willow Creek, the San Jacinto River basin, Cedar Bayou, Clear Creek, and the creeks that feed into Addicks and Barker Reservoirs). Since these watersheds drain slower the cumulative effect of multiple rounds of rainfall can result in sustained rises over the duration of the rainfall event. Will also need to keep an eye on any periods of sustained heavier rainfall for more rapid responses on other watersheds.

WPC has placed all of SE TX in a slight risk for flash flooding on Monday.

[Tammie]

Larry Cosgrove weighs in on the upcoming week, with a warning of a foot of rain
EXCELLENT analysis!
https://clearskyweather.com/2024/01/19/ ... -rainfall/

[cheezyWXguy]

The NAM isn’t backing off the freezing rain for parts of north Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. Even with a quick thaw late morning/early afternoon Monday, I can see tons of traffic troubles headed our way if it verifies.

KTWV said I could get up to 1/2 inch of Ice, yikes.

I know! Everyone seems to be of the opinion it will be a non-event. 1/2” of ice will be crippling, even for a few hours!

I could see window for ice accumulation near the red river and north, but even the nam has backed off a bit from previous runs for north Texas. It does show a brief period of freezing rain around midnight, but temps are at or above freezing by morning commute in the metro. Would need to see these temps trend down a few degrees for this to be a big problem. I guess we’ll see what future runs show

[txtwister78]

Overnight suite of models looks mild until mid February, after this bout of cold.

Yup. MJO doesn't appear to be cooperating if you want a quick return of cold after this stretch passes. That's ok by me. Bring on the rain!

[cajungal]

Overnight suite of models looks mild until mid February, after this bout of cold.

Yup. MJO doesn't appear to be cooperating if you want a quick return of cold after this stretch passes. That's ok by me. Bring on the rain!

I read not to except another arctic intrusion til after Feb 3rd. Time is running out in SE Louisiana before we have to wait yet another winter

[BTAYLOR5021]

DFW Should finish January at about 52/33, given current temp trends though Jan 31st. Just a guesstimate in temps.

[Gotwood]

#WinterCancel https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1748376118351012311?s=46

[orangeblood]

Overnight suite of models looks mild until mid February, after this bout of cold.

Yup. MJO doesn't appear to be cooperating if you want a quick return of cold after this stretch passes. That's ok by me. Bring on the rain!

The Indo Pacific area is a major X Factor that the Larry Cosgroves of the Met World seem to overlook, it's a MAJOR factor and a big problem for the remainder of Southern US Winter!

Not a good look, flood of warm Pacific Air that may take several weeks to flush out with no sign of Greenland Block...

[Iceresistance]

KTWV said I could get up to 1/2 inch of Ice, yikes.

I know! Everyone seems to be of the opinion it will be a non-event. 1/2” of ice will be crippling, even for a few hours!

I could see window for ice accumulation near the red river and north, but even the nam has backed off a bit from previous runs for north Texas. It does show a brief period of freezing rain around midnight, but temps are at or above freezing by morning commute in the metro. Would need to see these temps trend down a few degrees for this to be a big problem. I guess we’ll see what future runs show

Sunday has already trended colder because the models underestimated the cold.

[Iceresistance]

#WinterCancel https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1748376118351012311?s=46

 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1748376118351012311