Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

If anyone misses warmth, just go back at look at summer 2011 heat records. Looking at it makes me shiver! You will get warmth and it will get hot again in Texas I guarantee it, but now is not the time!

[dhweather]

2011 - What a summer that was:

[gboudx]

I had a heat stroke looking at that table.

[wxman57]

Alright already ... is this better?

OMG!!! The 12z GFS has a snowstorm for Texas at about 360 hours! I'm psyched!! (It really does)

I believe it. Of course, we still can't trust the model output for next week - there MUST be cold coming! 12Z Euro indicates the cold air shunting eastward - not south to Texas, just as the GFS is and has been forecasting for 2-3 days. Unfortunately (for me), I don't see any lengthy period of southerly winds across Texas over the next few weeks, meaning temps probably staying a bit below normal.

Oh, and I don't ride my road bike in the city. I'd be on my mountain bike in Houston.

[gboudx]

Oh, and I don't ride my road bike in the city. I'd be on my mountain bike in Houston.

And how many miles do you ride on the mtn bike, and what kind is it?

[dhweather]

FTW AFD

NORTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE TOMORROW BUT HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND WARM ADVECTION AT
THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP TROUGH WILL DROP INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. AN INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
SATURDAY...BUT THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER. A LARGER
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ONLY BE A GLANCING
BLOW OF COLD AIR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT.
HOWEVER...DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS QUESTIONABLE AND WILL NOT MENTION
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. IF ANY SHOWER WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE
BELOW A STRONG INVERSION AND THUNDER WOULDNT BE EXPECTED.

[wxman57]

Oh, and I don't ride my road bike in the city. I'd be on my mountain bike in Houston.

And how many miles do you ride on the mtn bike, and what kind is it?

Typically, between 35 and 45 miles. Sometimes as much as 60 miles. I have a route that goes from SW Houston through downtown, over to the Heights trail then White Oak Bayou trail past the NW 610 loop near Ella and another 8 miles NW of the loop. That's the long 60 mile route. The wife and I typically bike about 100 miles a week on 3 rides, though I may ride more often than that. I ride a 2001 Klein dual-suspension bike and I like to go fast. I also like going up and down the grassy sides of Buffalo Bayou. Can be quite steep in areas.

12Z Euro high-res slowly coming in on my PC. Shows a light freeze almost as far south as Dallas next Tuesday. All the cold air is driven ESE-SE rather than south to TX. Another surge of cold air a little farther west into Texas on Friday/Saturday of next week.

[gboudx]

Oh, and I don't ride my road bike in the city. I'd be on my mountain bike in Houston.

And how many miles do you ride on the mtn bike, and what kind is it?

Typically, between 35 and 45 miles. Sometimes as much as 60 miles. I have a route that goes from SW Houston through downtown, over to the Heights trail then White Oak Bayou trail past the NW 610 loop near Ella and another 8 miles NW of the loop. That's the long 60 mile route. The wife and I typically bike about 100 miles a week on 3 rides, though I may ride more often than that. I ride a 2001 Klein dual-suspension bike and I like to go fast. I also like going up and down the grassy sides of Buffalo Bayou. Can be quite steep in areas.

On a mountain bike? Is the terrain mostly flat? I can barely manage 20 on my mountain bike with all the hills along my path. I have a Trek designed by Gary Fisher with 29" wheels. It kicks butt on trails, but can be a bear on the hilly roads up here. I need a nice road bike that doesn't require a 2nd mortgage.

I'm looking forward to some 50+ degree days so I can get out and ride. It's too painful in the 40's and below.

[wxman57]

On a mountain bike? Is the terrain mostly flat? I can barely manage 20 on my mountain bike with all the hills along my path. I have a Trek designed by Gary Fisher with 29" wheels. It kicks butt on trails, but can be a bear on the hilly roads up here. I need a nice road bike that doesn't require a 2nd mortgage.

I'm looking forward to some 50+ degree days so I can get out and ride. It's too painful in the 40's and below.

Moved the biking discussion to a PM.

As far as the 12Z models, I'm liking what I'm seeing for next week in that it will not be nearly as cold as this week across southeast TX. Unfortunately, I don't see any indication of significant warm weather across Texas through next week (mid 70s or warmer).

[Kelarie]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
302 PM CST WED JAN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LA TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MS WILL WRAP BACK ACROSS MS RIVER AND
WILL LIKELY CLIP EASTERN CWA. COLDER AIR ALOFT TONIGHT...AND A
SLIGHT EVAP COOLING EFFECT...MAY ALLOW FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
TYPE PRECIP...WITH SFC TEMPS IN CLOUD COVER REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING. FURTHER WEST...SKIES MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPS
WILL FALL CONSIDERABLY LOW..AS DEWPOINTS IN UPPER TEENS WRAPPING
INTO NE TX WITH NW WINDS. A GRADUAL CLEARING OF THESE CLOUDS
EASTWARD SHOULD BE COMPLETED FINALLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW EJECTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO AFFECT
REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. MORE SEASONAL...BUT STILL FAIRLY
DRY...AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE RIDGE BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY
MORE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD./VII/.

[Ntxw]

Since it's about to quiet down for a few days lets take a look at what the first half of January brought to us



So far NOAA and the weather channel outlooks from back in October/November is not standing up very well, at least for the west and plains

[pwrdog]

2011 - What a summer that was:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fwd/clim ... ompare.png

1980 seemed much hotter.
Maybe that's because of the days over 105? Or that I was in Two of Days football practice during that heat wave.

That's back when it did not matter how hot it was, we practiced.
Running around in full pads at temps of 108, 109, 111 was brutal... I can recall looking up at the sky and hoping a cloud would move over and give us a break for even a few seconds.

Nobody died but many passed out and I don't recall much worry about people passing out back then at all. Times have changed..

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:
Well, Dallas is home and will be for a while. Outside of the unrelenting summer heat, weather wise Dallas is not a bad place to be. Plus my wonderful wife would never allow a move to a colder climate.

Change Dallas for Houston and we have the same "problem". When I was looking for a job once I was going to apply to a firm in Wisconsin. I was told in no uncertain terms what would happen if I took a job there. LOL!! Now, about this time share thing SS...

[GaryHughes]

I've been alive for 42 years and the Summer of 2011 was by far the worst I have experienced, the drought and all those consecutive 105 + days ...

I was outside in it every day 9 + hours a day.

[gpsnowman]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... xt/4270948
A glimmer of hope from this article. A met mentions possible southern plains arctic air for early Feb. We shall see. The fact the southern plains is even mentioned on Accuweather is enough to give me hope.

[Palmer divide shadow]

How can I forget the summer of 11.scorched lawn! The driest summer I remember and im 37. I got married august 27th which happened to tie the all time record of 109.Needless to say,The wife said she couldn't endure another summer like that and we moved back to Colorado.

[MGC]

As I recall, the scope of the 1980 heat wave was much larger...Notice the higher lows in 2011...those higher lows are causing the average temp to be higher. How much more has DWF area grown since 1980? Greater heat island I would think.

Looks like the ULL currently over you guys is going to give central Mississippi a decent shot at some snow. All I will get is some cold. Ready to see the sun for a few days........MGC

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Ah maybe an annual winter holiday up North (one with the guys) would be best then.

I know Texans love their State but to love winter's gifts of snow is really a heartbreaker there (esp even if you get it it only lasts for a fleeting moment)..... as you are all more than aware.

Maybe you could rent your house out to a bunch of crazy Storm2k'ers next winter. Then you could laugh at every single one of us as we get a taste of what real winter is like.

Now, about this time share thing SS...

Hmmmmm now just what time of year were you boys looking at?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

For some reason or other I'm thinking it might be our hunting season? Some of which usually falls in the snow season here

Your right about me at the thought of you fellows coping with our snow and ice.

I really do have this picture, in my head, of how many folks down there react to snow:



p.s. our sky has been overcast for months (guess what drops snow).

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Actually most idiots around here do that when it starts to rain. When somebody sees a snowflake or ice pellet it turns into mass chaos. Interstates, roads, schools, and businesses all shut down. Pretty funny to sit back and watch and laugh at the them.