Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

South Texas Storms mild weather isn’t beautiful lol

[Cpv17]

Well that's quite a flip from just a couple of days ago. Is there much sudden confidence in this?

Major MJO influence showing up, it showing signs of stalling in the warmer US phases and if it lags too long...winter will have already passed us by!!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

This shows the entire North American continent being flooded by Pacific Air, from Alaska to Baja to start February. Hope we see this flip quickly in week 3 and beyond
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1705665600/1706961600-NLo5kdPce2U.png

What a beautiful sight! Let's keep the above normal rainfall pattern going as long as possible!

I’m fine with it being warm as long as it means rain.

[Cpv17]

Absolutely disgusting, thats all that map shows, pure utter atrocity

Models change all the time. I wouldn’t lose sleep over it.

Sure but Ensemble Model consensus is tough to beat in the 10-14 day range

Yeah but from February 10th through March 10th, winter can still produce.

[orangeblood]

Models change all the time. I wouldn’t lose sleep over it.

Sure but Ensemble Model consensus is tough to beat in the 10-14 day range

Yeah but from February 10th through March 10th, winter can still produce.

No doubt, extended models are adamant about high latitude blocking returning Mid to Late Feb

[ElectricStorm]

If it's going to be less than freezing all day like today, I would rather be getting snow than just having a dry cold like now. I don't mind cold but days like today are a bit too much for my liking. I do like the looks at getting some rain early next week, just hoping we don't get much in terms of freezing rain here.

[bubba hotep]

Well that's quite a flip from just a couple of days ago. Is there much sudden confidence in this?

Major MJO influence showing up, it showing signs of stalling in the warmer US phases and if it lags too long...winter will have already passed us by!!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

This shows the entire North American continent being flooded by Pacific Air, from Alaska to Baja to start February. Hope we see this flip quickly in week 3 and beyond
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1705665600/1706961600-NLo5kdPce2U.png

What a beautiful sight! Let's keep the above normal rainfall pattern going as long as possible!

Yes, it looks like the Pacific jet will be shifted equatorward this round, which should favor Southern Plains rain. Also, for the people throwing in the towel, February is looking to set up a more traditional Nino pattern where it will take a dynamic closed low system to pull down enough cold air. Even though Canada will be above normal with a +AO/NAO pattern, there is still enough cold air to get it done with the right system.

[Gotwood]

Major MJO influence showing up, it showing signs of stalling in the warmer US phases and if it lags too long...winter will have already passed us by!!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

This shows the entire North American continent being flooded by Pacific Air, from Alaska to Baja to start February. Hope we see this flip quickly in week 3 and beyond
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1705665600/1706961600-NLo5kdPce2U.png

What a beautiful sight! Let's keep the above normal rainfall pattern going as long as possible!

Yes, it looks like the Pacific jet will be shifted equatorward this round, which should favor Southern Plains rain. Also, for the people throwing in the towel, February is looking to set up a more traditional Nino pattern where it will take a dynamic closed low system to pull down enough cold air. Even though Canada will be above normal with a +AO/NAO pattern, there is still enough cold air to get it done with the right system.

I would take another Valentine’s Day snow storm. Seems like February is the money month for winter weather.

[South Texas Storms]

South Texas Storms mild weather isn’t beautiful lol

Sure it is! Whenever there's rain involved and temperatures below 80 it's a beautiful day!

[jasons2k]

Major MJO influence showing up, it showing signs of stalling in the warmer US phases and if it lags too long...winter will have already passed us by!!!!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

This shows the entire North American continent being flooded by Pacific Air, from Alaska to Baja to start February. Hope we see this flip quickly in week 3 and beyond
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1705665600/1706961600-NLo5kdPce2U.png

What a beautiful sight! Let's keep the above normal rainfall pattern going as long as possible!

I’m fine with it being warm as long as it means rain.

This is perfect for me. Mild and wet. I'm covering things again this weekend and I'm done with hard freezes, hopefully.

[jasons2k]

South Texas Storms mild weather isn’t beautiful lol

Sure it is! Whenever there's rain involved and temperatures below 80 it's a beautiful day!

This Florida native agrees!!

Also, based on observations and judging by when people are outside in the neighborhood - jogging the trails, playing basketball and tennis at the courts, dog walking, etc., during the wintertime it's when we have nice mild, southerly flow -- the vast majority of the public agrees on this too because that's when they're out and about.

I didn't see anyone outside during the deep freeze earlier this week. Trash day was Monday, and the trash wasn't picked-up because of the ice. (Incidentally, the recycling was, but not the trash). Well, we all bring in the trash cans the same day because our HOA will send letters if you leave the trash cans out.

This week, most of the trash cans stayed outside until trash day #2 on Thursday. Since it was below freezing most of the time, at least the trash didn't decompose any more.

By Thursday, when we hit 68 - the neighborhood was full of people outside being done with cabin fever. I was one of them. I cleaned the pool, walked the dogs, opened-up the garage to let out the cold air -- ahh it was wonderful.

Can't wait for Monday to get here

[Stratton23]

Hey since we have the heat miser on here, I could be the cold miser, after all my hatred for the warmth is as much as wxman’s for the cold lol, maybe I need to change my icon

[Tammie]

:ggreen: Hey since we have the heat miser on here, I could be the cold miser, after all my hatred for the warmth is as much as wxman’s for the cold lol, maybe I need to change my icon

Love the idea, but you’d need to be the Snow Miser! And then we’d need to elect someone Mother Nature

From The Year Without a Santa Claus:
The Heat Miser is a character from The Year Without a Santa Claus. He lives in a volcano and controls the hot weather around the earth. He and his stepbrother Snow Miser are the offspring of Mother Nature.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It feels downright balmy after being in below zero weather for half of the last week. I ran right into a north wind tonight in summer running gear and a 35 degree wind chill.

It felt great.

[Texas Snow]

Was surprised to see FWD put this out this evening as it seems so marginal, short lived, and a couple days away at that. Hmmm

[Brent]

Was surprised to see FWD put this out this evening as it seems so marginal, short lived, and a couple days away at that. Hmmm

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full6.jpg?497ff3309f7db8e4fd849733a01c583d

I think messaging may be getting pushed harder because of the day and time of day... Monday morning commute. There's already enough problems on a normal day

[Stratton23]

500 mb height pattern look better on the 00z GFS, doesnt flood the US with pacific air, and instead has intermittent cold shots, it’s trying to link up the Alaskan ridge again

[bubba hotep]

Was surprised to see FWD put this out this evening as it seems so marginal, short lived, and a couple days away at that. Hmmm

http://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image_full6.jpg?497ff3309f7db8e4fd849733a01c583d

Some of the 12z runs are very aggressive, but just as models tend to struggle with incoming arctic air, they also tend to struggle with how fast an air mass will moderate. So it wouldn't surprise me if things end up colder or warmer than the current models.

[Iceresistance]

I would not be surprised if there is Ice as far south as San Antionio.


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0Zfo.png

[bubba hotep]

I would not be surprised if there is Ice as far south as San Antionio.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0Zfo.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0Zfo.png

The 00z SPC FRAM highlighted the risk very far south. It will be interesting to see what the 12z shows.

[gpsnowman]

I would not be surprised if there is Ice as far south as San Antionio.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0Zfo.png
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/S0Zfo.png

The 00z SPC FRAM highlighted the risk very far south. It will be interesting to see what the 12z shows.

I was thinking this ice threat would shift off to the north and disappear leaving DFW with a cold rain. Now it appears to be getting stronger. Monday morning would be a disaster if this verifies.