Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

Blah... pouring rain as I walked to class earlier. Snowstorm FAIL! It's not even cold here.

[HURAKAN]

Cancelled.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EST MON 02 FEB 2009
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z FEB 2009
WSPOD NUMBER.....08-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THE 3 MISSIONS ON A DEVELOPING ATLANTIC
SYSTEM ALL CANCELED BY NCEP BY O2/1325Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. P1/ 39.5N 144.7W/ 03/1200Z
B. AF301 09WSC TRACK1
C. 03/0700Z
D. DROPS EVERY 20 MINTUES ON TRACK WEST OF 135W
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 03/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE TRACK
WITH A 04/0500Z TAKEOFF.

[Daktar]

Looks like the energy has been shifted to the Atlantic side now! Looks to me that the storm is going to closer to the coast then expected..However it is also WEAKER than what was expected.. I am still having trouble to find a center of circulation. This storm was really HYPED by the media. It is interesting that so many people got caught up in the HYPE of a super storm.. Well any way looking to see any great pressure drops and I don't see it! right now a average YANKEE SCREAMER!

[Daktar]

Latest pressure reading out the gulf of Mexico shows the lowest pressure is located on the Gulf side of Fl. (Clear water Beach) showing a pressure of 29.79.
This seems to be the center of this storm..(I think)..A lot of clouds on the Atlantic side I think a new center will form on this side tonight and then turn N.N.E... At this point in time it does not look as this storm will bomb..

[Brent]

Hmmmm, very VERY minor ice accumulation on the car tops and the grass is crunchy. Guessing water from earlier refroze because I don't think anything ever fell? Very weird.

[Daktar]

Froze in here this morning..BLACK ICE..17.2 snow on the ground with another chance moving in by mid day.. Let it snow let it snow..

[Daktar]

well it has been snowing since about noon..Air temps 35.6 winds gusting to 11 mph>>Tennessee Blizzard ... We have between 1 to 2 inches on the ground with a little more accumulation expected..


Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
257 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2009

...SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
BRINGING COLDER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. PERIODS
OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

TNZ036>040-067>071-073-040400-
/O.EXB.KMRX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090204T1800Z/
ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-
JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...
RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...
KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE
257 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY.

OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY...CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH IS
EXPECTED. THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE WIND CHILLS TO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SO DRESS APPROPRIATELY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING AND
WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR
DESTINATION.


Let it snow let it snow

[Daktar]

I think tonight a read a very good blog on weather modeling and why they are not accurate..I think everyone should read this.

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blog ... curate.asp

or just google accu weather and look under the blog area..

I thought I would post this since many people were very discouraged in this last storm..

[grentz7721]

I just woke up to snow earlier this morning, and, again, wasn't enough to cover the ground.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Just thought I'd go ahead and put a jinx on it for Brent.

NWS Birmingham:

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE FINAL FEW DAYS OF THE WEEK.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE REGARDING THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...NOT
ONLY WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BUT ALSO WITH PRECIP TYPE.
TEMPERATURES JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SEEM TO HAVE A QUICK SPIKE
UP...AND THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE COLD BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF SATURDAY`S SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION LIQUID PRECIP IN OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS.

ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH SOME MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, 18z GFS shows Snow in the Deepsouth in 5 days

[Brent]

lalala, I can't hear you or the 0z GFS.

I'm not getting excited til I see snow falling. It would be fitting to happen though since I'm ready to give up on this sorry pathetic winter.

[AL Chili Pepper]

The NAM sure looks interesting, FWIW...at least for Northern MS.

[Brent]

Oh boy...

Saturday Night: Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow showers before midnight, then a chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of snow showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I started a South Carolina WINTER STORM DISASTER thread...

[Daktar]

Here we go! I had to check in after looking at the latest models. Snow for the deep south! I do want to caution everyone who is beginning to get hyped up about this.."The storm track will be the biggest factor other than cold air.. I have been watching this developing situation for the last few days... Right now it appears the models are coming together better than yesterday..However remember models are computer generated.. This means storm track could be hundred mile one way or the other. If you really want to get an Idea about where the storm is going to tract watch how far south this first cold front pushes south. It appears that this will be the highway for the upper low to form and track.. NWS is trending towards the low becoming cut off from the southern branch of the jet stream. If this happens it is possible for snow totals to reach higher amounts..

Now let's try to do the best we an with the information we have at this time..Deep south snow storm I don't think so..Southern snow could be cities like Birmingham, Atlanta is well possible! Back west towards Jackson Mississippi I think will be to far from the track of the upper low.. Nooga could see it's first measured snow of the year.

Now this brings the question will I see snow here in the Knoxville area?? Once again it will depend on the track of the upper low..Local weather has been raising it's pop's over the last day now says 60% chance..No snow totals have been posted..I am sure the mountains will see a coating for sure..

I have seen the most snow this year since I moved to this area I would say 6 to 8 this year over several small events.. Last weekend we received about two inches..Started out rain changed over to mixed and then to a heavy wet snow..Wind was blowing about 15 mph so the heavy wet stuff was driven sideways for a period of time..More cold air got involved and it changed to a light powder snow..

I love the snow last weekend it was up till 3pm watching it..To me it never gets old.. I love to watch it snow.. One thing I don't like is when it melts it become a mess..Any guys and gals I do hope this becomes a big event that alot of people gets to enjoy..

[Dionne]

Wow.....I keep seeing all these posts about snow on it's way for the deep south. Maybe someone should tell the NWS about this impending disaster? I just looked for Jackson, Birmingham, Atlanta......32F-35F Rain/Snow mix possibilities. I did not see any winter storm warnings for the deep south. It's going to rain with spring thunderstorms. How do I know? Because it's happening right now in north Mississippi. Maybe it's just the perception of where the "deep south" is latitude wise?

[srainhoutx]

Latest Update from HPC...snipet...

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
343 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2009

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 27 2009 - 12Z MON MAR 02 2009


DAY 2...

KY/MID APPALACHIANS...
A DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE S
VALLEY OR THE TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE APPALACHIANS ON DAY 2. THE
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN RESOLVING SOME KEY
DETAILS...AND MANY OF THE PROBLEMS ARE RELATED TO PHASING BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LOW-MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGING INCREASING PW VALUES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...PRODUCING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.

MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES OVER EASTERN
KY/WESTERN VA...
WITH AN INITIAL WAR LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KY AND SOUTHWEST VA. WET BULB
COLLING RESULTS IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE AS QPF VALUES IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF HALF TO
THREE FOURTHS OF AN INCH ARE SPLIT AMONG THE PRECIP TYPES. MANUAL
PROGS BLENDED THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS/00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIP AND THERMAL PROFILES.

DAY 3...

SOUTHEAST...

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD CONTINUES ON DAY THREE WITH 85-700 MB
LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES LEADING TO AN ARRAY OF
POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT GA...TO A NEAR
MISS.
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDED THE UKMET LOWS SFC/ALOFT DEPARTING
FASTER AND PRODUCING LESS PRECIP...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TO THE
NORTH AND ENDING PRECIP EITHER NEAR THE TIME IT GETS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GLOBAL
MODELS WOULD PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND DEFORMATION BAND TO THE LEFT OF THEIR 850
MB LOW TRACK...WITH TEMP PROFILES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR SEVERAL
HOURS WHEN PRECIP IS FCST. THE 00Z ECMWF TREND TO INDICATE THE
85-700 MB LOW FURTHER NORTH A FEW HUNDRED MILES HIGHLIGHTS THE
CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SO A MDT RISK OF FOUR INCHES TO LOW RISK
OF TWELVE INCHES IS INDICATED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
EVOLUTION ALOFT.
MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE 00Z NAM/18Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.

[Brent]

ON TO THE SECOND HALF...SNOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS...AND PERHAPS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW...BUT FOR NOW AM LEANING WITH THE
FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION FROM THE EURO AND MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...FURTHER SOUTHWESTERN TRACK IS THE
MAIN OUTLIER AT THIS JUNCTURE. IF THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...MUCH
OF THE DEVELOPING SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO...AND WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
STATE THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO COME IN
WETTER AND WETTER WITH EVERY RUN...SO IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE
WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATION ISSUES...PERHAPS A FEW INCHES NORTH AND
EAST OF BHM. DON`T WANT TO GET CARRIED AWAY YET...AS WE STILL HAVE
FIRST THINGS FIRST TO DEAL WITH TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BE OF INTEREST SOON.

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the evening...then snow showers likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows around 34. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy. Breezy at times. A chance of snow showers in the morning...then a slight chance of showers or snow showers in the afternoon. Highs around 43. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

[Brent]

Huntsville:

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD WITH THE VERY
STRONG UPPER LOW NOW DROPPING THROUGH WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. THE
LOW CONTINUES TO PRESENT VERY STRONG -DIVQ AND RESULTING UVV
FIELDS SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z WHEN SOUNDING PROFILES
CONVERT RA/IP TO SN. THERE WILL BE STRONG UVV IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER
AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG QG AND KINEMATIC FORCING AND A DEEP TROWAL
SIGNATURE DOES LEND SOME CONCERN THAT CYCLOGENESIS MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATED...ESPECIALLY WITH A GOOD INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR
INCREASING THE BAROCLINICITY ACROSS THE SE U.S. EVEN SO...THE 09Z
SREF/12Z GFS/NAM RESULTS IN A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING STIFF
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20-30KT LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A QUICK LOOK
AT THE 12Z ECMWF EVEN REINFORCES THE CONCERN FOR AN IMPACT WINTER
EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER TN AND N AL.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THIS SITUATION CAUTIOUSLY...BUT WE WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO CONSIDER A WINTER STORM WATCH EITHER TONIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY IF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECWMF...CONTINUE THIS
TREND.

Peachtree City(usually very conservative on snow)

AS THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST
OF THE STATE...GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVE
IN FROM THE NW BEGINNING SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS THIS BACKSIDE MOISTURE MOVES IN...540
THICKNESSES DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FL PANHANDLE AND CONTINUE TO
STAY THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA
COULD SEE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW. HAVE PUT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE FOR SUNDAY.