Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves . That's another blast we have yet to model. Wxman57 already has his hands full with this first one! He won't survive if we move for the cold apocalypse

[natlib]

5 days out, the GFS always seems to back off, then 12-24 hours later, it comes back on.

Larry Cosgrove said he believes another big cold snap is coming after the Dec 11th period

Larry has a great handle on the global models......He's been warning of this weeks blast for two weeks now. He is talking already of moderation from the 15th thru the 23rd....then a cold end of the year.

[Portastorm]

Tweet of note this morning from Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi):

Piggly Wiggly get ready. Ice/Snow coming as far south as I-20 in Texas, maybe to I-10 weekend into next week. ECWMF not messing around

[orangeblood]

All 4 CFSv2 ensemble members are on board for a winter storm across a big portion of the state over the next week

[Tireman4]

The HGX NWS is still lowering the temperatures for the weekend. Stay tuned folks...

Friday A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 46.
Friday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 37.
Saturday A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 44.
Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Sunday A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... pyo_ieaiSo

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD ....


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEATHER STORY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE
THE EARLY DECEMBER WARMTH FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AFTER SOME
MORNING FOG THIS MORNING...THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND WARM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE/LOWER LEVEL WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORDS (83 AT CLL...84 AT
BOTH IAH AND HOU...AND 79 AT GLS). COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
THINGS START TO GET A LITTLE TRICKY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO INCREASING MODEL
DIFFERENCES. GFS MODEL BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE MUCH SLOWER NAM/ECMWF MODELS THAT DO NOT BRING THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED COOL DOWN INTO THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. THE AREA COULD
SEE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAYBE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COLDER WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEAD ON INTO THE
WEEKEND. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY PRECIPITATION MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH COUNTIES DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD. STAY TUNED. 42



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Texas Snowman]

Tweet of note this morning from Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi):

Piggly Wiggly get ready. Ice/Snow coming as far south as I-20 in Texas, maybe to I-10 weekend into next week. ECWMF not messing around

The season's first Piggly Wiggly Watch!

More Joe B:

@BigJoeBastardi: Under and over at DFW for lowest temp is 19.5, with over under of 2 days of temps staying below 32.

[Texas Snowman]

From Joe B's counterpart:

"@RyanMaue: Expect temps 50-60°F below normal in Alberta Thurs morning as near-record Arctic blast buries West http://t.co/hmVtM5u3hZ"

[Portastorm]

No, despite what you may think, the PWC did not draw up the maps for the 12z GFS at and beyond 216 hours ... but still ... oh my.

[South Texas Storms]

No, despite what you may think, the PWC did not draw up the maps for the 12z GFS at and beyond 216 hours ... but still ... oh my.

How many years has it been since you've received over 1 inch of snow Porta?

[wxman57]

Here are some new meteograms based on the 12Z GFS. About another degree warmer in both Houston & Dallas for this weekend. Check out the following weekend on the Houston forecast, though:

[Rgv20]

No, despite what you may think, the PWC did not draw up the maps for the 12z GFS at and beyond 216 hours ... but still ... oh my.

Took a quick peek at the 12zGFS and oh my....Ice age coming?

Start packing wxman57!! lol

[Portastorm]

No, despite what you may think, the PWC did not draw up the maps for the 12z GFS at and beyond 216 hours ... but still ... oh my.

Took a quick peek at the 12zGFS and oh my....Ice age coming?

Start packing wxman57!! lol

If that GFS run were to verify ... we are talking 1983/1989 type cold. It would be devastating for you and your area, rgv.

[Portastorm]

No, despite what you may think, the PWC did not draw up the maps for the 12z GFS at and beyond 216 hours ... but still ... oh my.

How many years has it been since you've received over 1 inch of snow Porta?

Nine years ago on February 14, 2004 ... we had 1.6 inches of snow. We did have close to an inch of a sleet/snow mix back in February 2011 but it was about .8 or .9.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Goodness graceous. I think were very lucky some of this air is being modified by the Pac. If there is a strong snow cover and another big front comes down after the one this coming weekend, man thats going to be a cold one.

[South Texas Storms]

Man its been a while for you! If the long range GFS forecast of very cold temps verify, hopefully we get at least one storm system to bring us some snow! I don't wanna waste the cold temperatures.

[wxman57]

I plotted the extended range GFS meteograms for Dallas and Austin (next week and the following weekend). Time to head a lot farther south! Note that the graphs below only depict temps at 6am and 6pm, not the daily high. Unfortunately, I doubt that the highs on the 14th and 15th are going to reach acceptable levels for me. Also note the very low dew points (very dry air = no precip):

[Portastorm]

Thanks for those meteograms, wxman57! That certainly helps put that model run into some perspective.

This may surprise some of you but I also prefer precip with my sub-freezing temperatures. Those meteograms show roughly 60 hours of consecutive sub-freezing temps for Austin. With no precip. Now how can that be any fun?!

[Rgv20]

No, despite what you may think, the PWC did not draw up the maps for the 12z GFS at and beyond 216 hours ... but still ... oh my.

Took a quick peek at the 12zGFS and oh my....Ice age coming?

Start packing wxman57!! lol

If that GFS run were to verify ... we are talking 1983/1989 type cold. It would be devastating for you and your area, rgv.

Down here 1983/1989 are known for the freezes that killed the Palm Trees! Hopefully nothing that extreme comes our way.

[wxman57]

The current GFS projection is nowhere near the freezes of 1983 or 1989 in terms of cold air or duration, but it's way too cold for me. I'm sure Portastorm had something to do with that run...