Texas Winter 2017-2018

[EnnisTx]

Bubba Hotep has it right I think mentioning this pattern being prolonged. The ridge is retrograding out west, not progressing east like past years. Progressive ridges brings out warmth with them, this is going to send shot after shot of cold, that will track west with time. Snow and ice is luck and timing, but for an ensembles mean is quite impressive. I still don't expect yet the OP guidance to have true grasp of the magnitude of cold coming. Thinking we skip just a freeze and go to hard freeze, possibly highs in the 30s and 40s. Past patterns have yielded such in dark times (nearing winter solstice)





I don't see any reason the cold won't be pushed due south from the big cold surface highs.



Make no doubt about it, the pattern is -EPO tank. I dare not say the M word. We saw this pattern about twice or so last winter. A lot in 2013/2014

Could it be McFarland...... well.... could it??

[Ntxw]

Here is the December 2000 composite 500mb anomaly. Not too dissimilar to modeled pattern



Also the last time at DFW to record a sub-40 average monthly temperature

[Texas Snowman]

Could it be McFarland...... well.... could it??

Shhhh! We don't say that word around here! That really gets Heat Miser stirred up!

[Texas Snowman]

Here is the December 2000 composite 500mb anomaly. Not too dissimilar to modeled pattern

Battling the flu, so my memory is a bit fuzzy. But if memory serves correct, that was the month we had the massive "Silver Christmas" ice storm here in the Red River Valley.

It was 24-degrees and pouring down rain on Christmas afternoon, there was massive ice buildup on trees and powerlines in Grayson County, a number of high transmission towers crumpled, and thousands and thousands were without power (some for two plus weeks).

[Ntxw]

Battling the flu, so my memory is a bit fuzzy. But if memory serves correct, that was the month we had the massive "Silver Christmas" ice storm here in the Red River Valley.

It was 24-degrees and pouring down rain on Christmas afternoon, there was massive ice buildup on trees and powerlines in Grayson County, a number of high transmission towers crumpled, and thousands and thousands were without power (some for two plus weeks).

Hope you feel better soon! Yep that month was very icy and dicey especially just north of DFW and the Red River. Frozen for days and crippled especially northeast Texas. It wasn't intensely cold but was long lasting. Right around Christmas was when it got really bad and then New Year's eve had a snowfall event 1-3" for most.

[starsfan65]

Battling the flu, so my memory is a bit fuzzy. But if memory serves correct, that was the month we had the massive "Silver Christmas" ice storm here in the Red River Valley.

It was 24-degrees and pouring down rain on Christmas afternoon, there was massive ice buildup on trees and powerlines in Grayson County, a number of high transmission towers crumpled, and thousands and thousands were without power (some for two plus weeks).

Hope you feel better soon! Yep that month was very icy and dicey especially just north of DFW and the Red River. Frozen for days and crippled especially northeast Texas. It wasn't intensely cold but was long lasting. Right around Christmas was when it got really bad and then New Year's eve had a snowfall event 1-3" for most.

i remember that Bowl game in Shreveport in 2000 when it snowed a lot.

[JDawg512]

This website doesn't show temps that warm.

https://www.foreca.com/Greenland/Qaarsut?obshist

Also, that -76 should probably be C not F.

Actually it's correct as Fahrenheit because the coldest temp recorded in the northern hemisphere was -67.7°C which would be -90°F so if it was really -76C then it would be a new record low over -100F or I should say below -100 in this case lol.

Still trying to catch up so if someone already touched on this then my apologies.

[TarrantWx]

Battling the flu, so my memory is a bit fuzzy. But if memory serves correct, that was the month we had the massive "Silver Christmas" ice storm here in the Red River Valley.

It was 24-degrees and pouring down rain on Christmas afternoon, there was massive ice buildup on trees and powerlines in Grayson County, a number of high transmission towers crumpled, and thousands and thousands were without power (some for two plus weeks).

I remember that storm well. I was in High School and my family went to Iowa to visit extended family for Christmas. Christmas morning in Davenport, IA the temperature was -18 with a windchill well into the -30's. On the drive home, I remember it started snowing as we got into Oklahoma City. As we got into Southern Oklahoma we hit the ice. There were power lines and trees falling all around us. The sound of cracking and snapping branches was absolutely terrifying. It's probably one of the only times that I've been genuinely scared from a weather event. Looking back, it definitely ranks in the top 5 weather events I've experienced, I'm just really thankful we made it through it.

[Brent]

CMC has accumulating snow west of Abilene and Wichita Falls next Wednesday/Thursday

GFS pretty average-ish though a decent shot of rain with the front Mon Night/Tuesday

No freeze at DFW on the GFS again

[South Texas Storms]

CMC has accumulating snow west of Abilene and Wichita Falls next Wednesday/Thursday

GFS pretty average-ish though a decent shot of rain with the front Mon Night/Tuesday

Yep 0z runs look better than they have the past few runs. Colder with more precip on the GFS and Canadian. We'll see what the Euro shows in about 2 hours.

[Cpv17]

The Euro is sending next weeks front coldest temperatures east of TX once again. Mississippi and Alabama get the brunt of it. We get a glancing blow here in TX. And at the end of the run our source region in central and western Canada is being flooded with warm air.

[Brent]

0z Euro also no freeze at DFW the entire run.

If we dont get a freeze next week it'll just be another overhyped cold snap.

only 2 more weeks and we move into the top 10 latest freezes

[bubba hotep]

00z EPS is flatter with the western ridge in the long range and that shifts things east keeping most of Texas in "glancing blow of cold air" zone.

[Ralph's Weather]

We need the western ridge to be more -EPO dominant with a closer to neutral PNA so the cold gets directed down the Plains and a SW low is allowed to form below the West Coast ridge.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro also no freeze at DFW the entire run.

If we dont get a freeze next week it'll just be another overhyped cold snap.

only 2 more weeks and we move into the top 10 latest freezes

We've had near freezes in much wimpier patterns in Oct and Nov with less cold source. I doubt it doesn't freeze with this pattern. Overhyped or not, its a cold pattern east of the Rockies. It could be worse, you could be looking at zonal flow.

[Ralph's Weather]

I would not worry too much about if we get cold. It is 38 here this morning with above normal heights and the nearest system over Minnesota. Even if this misses east most will still get a good freeze for multiple mornings. Maybe DFW holds at 35 beacuase of the heat island, but that doesnt mean it did not get cold.

[srainhoutx]

I don't see any significant changes in the Medium Range sensible weather forecast for next week other than an increase in our rain chances which will need to be monitored. Still looking like the first in a series of strong cold fronts arrive mid next week with rain chance slowly increasing Tuesday into Wednesday as the front nears our Region. There is a chance of some over running nasty cold rain Wednesday night into next Thursday with temperatures in the low to mid 40's across SE Texas.

The extended Ensemble Guidance advertises that each additional cold front will bring colder air each shot suggesting we "step down" and see potentially colder air with each of the Canadian Cold Fronts into mid December. Not going to attempt to make a forecast for the extended range as we know the models can't be completely trusted beyond 3 to 5 days, but let just say that if the current Upper Air Pattern projected via the ensembles hold, somewhere across the Northern Plains could see temperatures nearing the -40F range as we near the Mid December timeframe. It is looking like Winter is arriving in Texas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

This is just an observation and backed by no science at all. Once social media, local mets and big box forecasting outlets such as The Weather Channel and Accuweather really start hyping a pattern change for Texas, ive come to realize that's all it usually turns out to be is hype. I really hope that isn't the case this time. I love cold weather but I have to admit, 60s for highs and 30s for lows sure has felt nice.

[Ntxw]

I think the real question is can we time a shortwave for wintry weather with the favorable pattern. That probably tops everything else. The three closest looks December 2000/2005/2013 all featured shallow cold air and an ice/sleet storm(s) of some sort. I think the risk for an ice storm is probably greater than snow. Don't believe the models at the surface quite yet.

[Ntxw]

This is just an observation and backed by no science at all. Once social media, local mets and big box forecasting outlets such as The Weather Channel and Accuweather really start hyping a pattern change for Texas, ive come to realize that's all it usually turns out to be is hype. I really hope that isn't the case this time. I love cold weather but I have to admit, 60s for highs and 30s for lows sure has felt nice.

The hypes are often associated with one or two cycles of OP model runs. The good forecasters and knowledgeable people you will find picks out from the ensembles and significant pattern change well before much media sensation and let the operational guidance go to them.