Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[Jag95]

The NAM is more pronounced with the warm nose that the other models. Major sleet storm for the coastal sections. Yuck.

[Ivanhater]

The NAM is more pronounced with the warm nose that the other models. Major sleet storm for the coastal sections. Yuck.

With the GFS and CMC moving toward the Euro with the snow line further south today, I am feeling a lot better.

With the Euro ensemble mean close to 100 percent now as well.

[Janie2006]

KJAN has joined KLIX in issuing a Winter Storm Watch. I wonder how long it’ll be before NWS Mobile-Pensacola folds its hand and joins in?

[Ivanhater]

18z Icon pretty similar to 12z...Snow line extends well into the Gulf

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[Jag95]

KJAN has joined KLIX in issuing a Winter Storm Watch. I wonder how long it’ll be before NWS Mobile-Pensacola folds its hand and joins in?

Their criteria is 2" I believe. Seems likely that at least some of their watch area will get that. Maybe this afternoon?

The ICON is coming around a little. It still wants to send the bulk of the energy into the southern Gulf.

[Ivanhater]

KJAN has joined KLIX in issuing a Winter Storm Watch. I wonder how long it’ll be before NWS Mobile-Pensacola folds its hand and joins in?

They bumped everyone up from 70 to 80% now

[Janie2006]

KJAN has joined KLIX in issuing a Winter Storm Watch. I wonder how long it’ll be before NWS Mobile-Pensacola folds its hand and joins in?

Their criteria is 2" I believe. Seems likely that at least some of their watch area will get that. Maybe this afternoon?

Gotta be. The NBM has a swath of 2-4 inches painted from Mobile County (except for the immediate coast, say Grand Bay -Coden -Dauphin Island - Fort Morgan) to points North, East, and Northeast.

[Ivanhater]

18z Rdps

Almost identical to the Euro

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[BigB0882]

How bad is the Nam for most of us with ice? How much snow does it take away from what we are hoping to get. And how close to the coast is the ice? Just immediately along the coast or further inland as well?

[Janie2006]

They bumped everyone up from 70 to 80% now

I’m curiously awaiting KMOB’s afternoon discussion. I’ve seen them call many a potential winter event correctly, and I’ve seen them bust a couple….like issuing a Winter Weather Advisory only to have to turn around and upgrade it to a Warning within an hour.

[Jag95]

How bad is the Nam for most of us with ice? How much snow does it take away from what we are hoping to get. And how close to the coast is the ice? Just immediately along the coast or further inland as well?

The NAM shows about .5" qpf of all sleet. The snow line is right around the MS line, so you're close.

[BigB0882]

How bad is the Nam for most of us with ice? How much snow does it take away from what we are hoping to get. And how close to the coast is the ice? Just immediately along the coast or further inland as well?

The NAM shows about .5" qpf of all sleet. The snow line is right around the MS line, so you're close.

It would be heartbreaking to go from a historic snow storm to a little sleet. Yikes. I hope the others don’t follow suit. I would say the NAM is on its own but Ralph has pointed out this risk and how it happened with the last system,

[Ivanhater]

How bad is the Nam for most of us with ice? How much snow does it take away from what we are hoping to get. And how close to the coast is the ice? Just immediately along the coast or further inland as well?

The NAM shows about .5" qpf of all sleet. The snow line is right around the MS line, so you're close.

It would be heartbreaking to go from a historic snow storm to a little sleet. Yikes. I hope the others don’t follow suit. I would say the NAM is on its own but Ralph has pointed out this risk and how it happened with the last system,

The big models went the opposite direction today moving the snow line further south. The Euro and its ensembles have been steadfast. Sure, things can change but trends have been great today

[Jag95]

Six parts. Still doesn't really say anything we don't already know.

 https://twitter.com/NWSMobile/status/1880725650908336600

[Ivanhater]

BIG change in 18z GFS ....almost all snow now. Snow line much further south

1st 18z
2nd ..12z earlier today

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[BigB0882]

GFS keeps my hopes alive! Even if it did lower totals IMBY but it’s literally like throwing darts to figure out where the biggest totals will end up. The trend is our friend.

[Ivanhater]

GFS keeps my hopes alive! Even if it did lower totals IMBY but it’s literally like throwing darts to figure out where the biggest totals will end up. The trend is our friend.

Yeah no way to tell where the heaviest snow bands will set up but the biggest thing is the big models starting to lock in with all snow down to the coast. We could have easily trended in the wrong direction today!

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Ensemble.

While the snow line issue is good. I don't like the shearing out as it moves east. If it keeps up, this could dry up for points east of Louisiana




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[MississippiWx]

18z GFS Ensemble.

While the snow line issue is good. I don't like the shearing out as it moves east. If it keeps up, this could dry up for points east of Louisiana


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250118/7b0edabaa2c37a9f9a0edae21f2ce4f6.jpg

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Yeah, I’m getting concerned about precip amounts again. Most guidance is trending to a less and less amplified solution.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Ensemble.

While the snow line issue is good. I don't like the shearing out as it moves east. If it keeps up, this could dry up for points east of Louisiana


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250118/7b0edabaa2c37a9f9a0edae21f2ce4f6.jpg

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Yeah, I’m getting concerned about precip amounts again. Most guidance is trending to a less and less amplified solution.

It almost looks like a rush of dry air from the NW erodes the shield quickly. I'll still be thrilled with a couple inches here but need that trend to stop.

We got the snow line we wanted but now this issue