Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

Actually 27F between readings, should've taken the bet Porta!

[dhweather]

Thats just his shtick. Every single post he makes is crying foul on the models.

No he was talking to me.

Not to derail the texas thread as we can take it over to the deep south thread where nobody is to further discuss, but you tell me how well they have worked out this winter. Dont know about you but I sure know I haven't seen one sleet pellet or flake of snow fall out of the sky that they have shown.

I get it Mike - there has been a lot of "two weeks out" that either did not materialize or was nothing as advertised. But that's where you have to remind yourself that models beyond 3-5 days are generally garbage. If there were right, then most of our gulf coast cities would be in ruins from all of the phantom cat 5's in the gulf

[weatherdude1108]

29 at KAUS. Just sayin

Yep, it looks like KAUS hit 29 this morning.

Frost on the grass at work this morning.

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX had this link to the 1985 snowstorm on their NWS Homepage. Thought I'd share since I experienced it as a youth in SA. This snow storm is the primary reason I became a weather nut.
Good times!!

http://youtu.be/ID_JLO1ad2s

[Tireman4]

It appears both the GFS and Euro (op and ensembles) show the bulk of the cold air next week going into the Eastern half of the CONUS. And thank goodness! Aren't you all tired of this cold air? I'd take sunny and 75 if I could.

We are sending an expedition to the Death Star to find you. I know you are sending out cryptic messages to us. We shall know you will come back to us. Somewhere in that Borg technology, you still exist.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z GFS says not so fast my friend! at 234 hrs right now though and its showing a potential mean trough for Western U.S.

[dhweather]

Lucy lied to me again about rain. The models have been moving that promising system for next week further south with each run. The end result? GFS has 0.00" of rain for North Texas through 210 hours.

[Portastorm]

Lucy lied to me again about rain. The models have been moving that promising system for next week further south with each run. The end result? GFS has 0.00" of rain for North Texas through 210 hours.

No, you really can't say that yet. Lucy only pulls the football from you when the select target dates occur and no event happens ... or nothing remotely close to what the computer model promised. Now, if you don't have any rain by next Friday, then you can say it!

Not trying to be bossy but I do feel a little pride of ownership as I was the one who brought the Lucy-Charlie Brown-Football-Computer model analogy to Storm2K many winter seasons ago.

[dhweather]

Lucy lied to me again about rain. The models have been moving that promising system for next week further south with each run. The end result? GFS has 0.00" of rain for North Texas through 210 hours.

No, you really can't say that yet. Lucy only pulls the football from you when the select target dates occur and no event happens ... or nothing remotely close to what the computer model promised. Now, if you don't have any rain by next Friday, then you can say it!

Not trying to be bossy but I do feel a little pride of ownership as I was the one who brought the Lucy-Charlie Brown-Football-Computer model analogy to Storm2K many winter seasons ago.

You nailed it with the Lucy - the perfect analogy / metaphor for what happens more often than not.

[Portastorm]

If I got a quarter for every time the GFS or Euro promised wintry precip in Austin or major cold or a hurricane/tropical storm and it didn't happen, I could buy you a nice steak dinner!

In all fairness though that would involve model scenarios past five days.

[Ralph's Weather]

Lucy lied to me again about rain. The models have been moving that promising system for next week further south with each run. The end result? GFS has 0.00" of rain for North Texas through 210 hours.

Way too early to make a call. The GFS and Euro ensembles are both still showing big storm potential. Many or even most individual 12Z GFS ensembles show snow over our area with the best one being a 1-2 foot blizzard over Northeast Texas. The last four runs of the GFS ensembles show snow across Texas north of I-10. We are still a week out from the first of many potential winter storms. I still feel like the end of Jan into Feb will be one of those time periods that we look back on for years to come as far as winter storms similar to 2010.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow:

If I got a quarter for every time the GFS or Euro promised wintry precip in Austin or major cold or a hurricane/tropical storm and it didn't happen, I could buy you a nice steak dinner!

In all fairness though that would involve model scenarios past five days.

Patience Porta, the Polar Vortex is coming!!!

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

If I got a quarter for every time the GFS or Euro promised wintry precip in Austin or major cold or a hurricane/tropical storm and it didn't happen, I could buy you a nice steak dinner!

In all fairness though that would involve model scenarios past five days.

Patience Porta, the Polar Vortex is coming!!!

Nooo nooo...Superpolarvortexmeggaden!!!

[hriverajr]

Hey...where is wxman57 with his new avatar?

[Portastorm]

Polar Vortex ... Polar Schmortex.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion....are you jealous of the upper 70s to 80s Porta??

MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
AND COMBINE WITH FULL SUNSHINE LEADING TO THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS 76-80 DEGREES CWA WIDE
WHILE THE SUPER BLEND/GOING FORECAST IS TRENDING 2 TO 4 DEGREES
LOWER. IN ANY CASE BRIEF SHORTS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

NEXT COLD SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WEDNESDAY WITH A FULL BLAST
OF VALLEY TYPE WINTER RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE STRONGER FRONT ON THURSDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OFF THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THE COLD OVERRUNNING PATTERN COMMENCES.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
WAVE PATTERN SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. AS A RESULT WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY.
IF TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT AND THE STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A FALLING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BEFORE THIS
WINTER BLAST ARRIVES BUT IN THE MEAN TIME ENJOY A SMALL TASTE OF
SPRING.

[Texas Snowman]

Polar Vortex ... Polar Schmortex.

Shaking my head...never thought I'd see the day...our fearless leader is no more.

Meanwhile, much to the chagrin of Lord Heat Vader and the young Jedi Knight that he turned to the dark side, Mr. McCauley opines on his Facebook page about the potential for winter weather next week:

"This will bring a variety of precipitation to the state, from ice and snow to heavy thunderstorms. It remains too early to determine AMOUNTS of the precipitation and WHERE the snow/ice/thunderstorm lines will be, but it does look to bring measurable precipitation to more than 50% of north Texas."

[funster]

The sun is out! It is somewhat cheery but I'm already starting to miss the cold and fogging frizzle we've had off and on the past few weeks. I'm also ready for our massive February Supersnowmaggedonvortexapocalypto Doom Storm.

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD and SHV both are going with cool, not cold, wet weather for the end of next week. I think that is the right call though personally I am calling for colder temps just based on instincts though I am not sure that there will be any freezing temps. And next weekend and beyond is even more uncertain, but I do expect cold stormy weather even without much model support.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

By my math, Portastorm gets to remove his avatar and evil identity on the morning of Fri 23-Jan. The question becomes, will he do that with snow on the ground in the ATX?