Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

#3241 Postby **Lane** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:54 pm

we cannot see the link you posted MississippiWx.

TigerCraig · #3242 Postby **TigerCraig** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:00 pm

18Z NAM looks good for Baton Rouge

#3243 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:07 pm

18z NAM more aggressive with the cold as well as more aggressive with the precip at the onset:

The NAM warms a bit (not much) at hour 84. As we know, the NAM doesn't go past 84 hours, so who knows what it thinks about Friday and Friday night?

Metalicwx220 · #3244 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:12 pm

What does it sh ow for Georgia

#3245 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:13 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:What does it sh ow for Georgia

NAM doesn't go far enough out, but from what it's showing right now in the above image is just rain.

LaBreeze · #3246 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:15 pm

What can SW Louisiana expect out of this? Just a cold rain or what? Just wondering -

Metalicwx220 · #3247 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:16 pm

Users browsing this forum: bella_may, bevolon, Brandon8181, brunota2003, CaptinCrunch, cctxhurricanewatcher, ColdFusion, Cuda17, DentonGal, DonWrk, downsouthman1, Dustan78, Ellsey, gboudx, GCANE, gpsnowman, HockeyTx82, Jagno, johnmarkthom, kdawgfm, Kelarie, Kennethb, Kludge, LaBreeze, LearnedHat, Metalicwx220, MississippiWx, MSUDawg, orangeblood, Portastorm, ravyrn, rnmm, Sainttaz, sensoria, SFS97, southerngale, Stormcenter, TeamPlayersBlue, Texas MidCoaster, TexasSam, TigerCraig, tim_aka_tim, txtiff, WacoWx, WeatherKing, WeatherNewbie, wxman22, Yahoo [Bot]and 178 guests Holy cow!!!....................anyways my area is used to missing snowstorms.

#3248 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:19 pm

LaBreeze wrote:What can SW Louisiana expect out of this? Just a cold rain or what? Just wondering -

The Lake Charles NWS office has snow in the forecast for Friday for their Northern counties. I'd suggest you type in your location on the NWS website and look at your zone forecast. Also, there will be a link to the forecast discussion on that page. From what I've read, though, SW Louisiana/SE Texas have a legitimate shot at seeing some snowfall Friday and Friday night.

#3249 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:21 pm

Metalicwx220 wrote:Users browsing this forum: bella_may, bevolon, Brandon8181, brunota2003, CaptinCrunch, cctxhurricanewatcher, ColdFusion, Cuda17, DentonGal, DonWrk, downsouthman1, Dustan78, Ellsey, gboudx, GCANE, gpsnowman, HockeyTx82, Jagno, johnmarkthom, kdawgfm, Kelarie, Kennethb, Kludge, LaBreeze, LearnedHat, Metalicwx220, MississippiWx, MSUDawg, orangeblood, Portastorm, ravyrn, rnmm, Sainttaz, sensoria, SFS97, southerngale, Stormcenter, TeamPlayersBlue, Texas MidCoaster, TexasSam, TigerCraig, tim_aka_tim, txtiff, WacoWx, WeatherKing, WeatherNewbie, wxman22, Yahoo [Bot]and 178 guests Holy cow!!!....................anyways my area is used to missing snowstorms.

No reason for you to give up hope already. Georgia could very well see a winter storm as we get into Saturday and Sunday. It will probably depend on the track/strength of the low pressure. If the low moves northeast out of the Gulf into Georgia, it will cause too much warm air advection. If the low is able to move over Florida then out into the Atlantic before moving northeast, then you'll have a better chance.

#3250 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:28 pm

Holy!

NAM snowfall accumulation for Thursday/Friday morning:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _SP084.gif

Here is twisterdata's map:

Metalicwx220 · #3251 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:31 pm

It says remote linking disabled.

#3252 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:33 pm

Sorry, having technical difficulties.

Metalicwx220 · #3253 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:34 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Sorry, having technical difficulties.

I can see it now........ Holy cow

LaBreeze · #3254 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:49 pm

Thanks ~ will do.

MississippiWx wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:What can SW Louisiana expect out of this? Just a cold rain or what? Just wondering -

The Lake Charles NWS office has snow in the forecast for Friday for their Northern counties. I'd suggest you type in your location on the NWS website and look at your zone forecast. Also, there will be a link to the forecast discussion on that page. From what I've read, though, SW Louisiana/SE Texas have a legitimate shot at seeing some snowfall Friday and Friday night.

#3255 Postby **MississippiWx** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:18 pm

18z GFS continues the colder/wetter trend.

Here is the 12z GFS for 12z Friday:

Now, here is the 18z GFS for 12z Friday. Notice the jump in the 0degree line:

#3256 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:34 pm

Oh wow! The NAM is giving me hope but it is a really thin swath of snow. That is always scary because you could miss out by 30 miles or be in the biggest accumulating snow. Lots of luck but that's better than no hope at all!

Metalicwx220 · #3257 Postby **Metalicwx220** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:38 pm

why this thang always got snow in extreme north(WEST) florida?

#3258 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:39 pm

The NWS out of New Orleans is not commiting to anything except the possibility way northwest
of the city.

LONG TERM...
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...NORTH OF BATON ROUGE FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING...PLACEMENT...AND STRENGTH OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN SOLUTION...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AIR IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA WITH
ALL RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST WITH THE DEEPER
UPPER SYSTEM THAT IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...YIELDING PRECIPITATION
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE OPTED TO ONLY INCLUDE LIQUID PRECIP EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE LATER IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
BECOMES CONSISTENT AND FAVORED.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.

#3259 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:49 pm

I see the NAM has a pretty nice snow for the deep south all the way to the Gulf coast. GFS trending wetter and colder as well. :wink:

Let's trend more toward snow instead of ice! I am in the middle of moving so I'll be checking in when I can today.

Just something to chew on. The models have been trending more south with the snow over in Texas even though they are within 24 hours of the storm! :wink:

#3260 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:52 pm

That is a foot of snow in South Mississippi! Gotta love the trends :ggreen:

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