Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

Have all the models except the EURO been consistent with cold air coming in all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast?

Yeah, pretty much. And now the models are coming in even colder. But will it ever get inside of 3 days?

I'm inside 2 days for the Arctic Air, it's coming . . .

[orangeblood]

12z GFS showing temps below zero as far south as I 20 in west central Texas Next Sunday.

CMC now caving to Euro, GFS holding strong...wild week in model world!

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC has trended a LOT Warmer.

ETA: The only thing I can say right now is that Wxman57 has taken full control of the CMC model

[Ralph's Weather]

Have all the models except the EURO been consistent with cold air coming in all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast?

Yeah, pretty much. And now the models are coming in even colder. But will it ever get inside of 3 days?

The leading edge is now 72 hours out so it is within 3 days. I expect the front to come in faster than modeled as is typical of Arctic fronts so DFW could be in the cold air by Tue night or early Wed. The front should clear all of the state by late Thu. By Sun morning northern portion of the state will be between -5 and 15 with 20s into the RGV. There will be waves of moisture as the flow out of the SW so frozen precip is possible almost at any point in for a 10+ day period though I don't expect any single big event.

[Cerlin]

Normally I trust the Euro but it’s been so inconsistent it’s hard to. And, the CMC has always had a cold bias so we knew it would eventually trend warmer, so personally I’m not worried unless all the other models start trending as well.

[Cpv17]

Have all the models except the EURO been consistent with cold air coming in all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast?

Yeah, pretty much. And now the models are coming in even colder. But will it ever get inside of 3 days?

The leading edge is now 72 hours out so it is within 3 days. I expect the front to come in faster than modeled as is typical of Arctic fronts so DFW could be in the cold air by Tue night or early Wed. The front should clear all of the state by late Thu. By Sun morning northern portion of the state will be between -5 and 15 with 20s into the RGV. There will be waves of moisture as the flow out of the SW so frozen precip is possible almost at any point in for a 10+ day period though I don't expect any single big event.

I respect you. I know you know your weather pretty well but man that’s a bold statement. What’s up with the Euro?

[Ralph's Weather]

Normally I trust the Euro but it’s been so inconsistent it’s hard to. And, the CMC has always had a cold bias so we knew it would eventually trend warmer, so personally I’m not worried unless all the other models start trending as well.

Euro is hard to trust at all anymore around here. I have not been impressed lately.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah, pretty much. And now the models are coming in even colder. But will it ever get inside of 3 days?

The leading edge is now 72 hours out so it is within 3 days. I expect the front to come in faster than modeled as is typical of Arctic fronts so DFW could be in the cold air by Tue night or early Wed. The front should clear all of the state by late Thu. By Sun morning northern portion of the state will be between -5 and 15 with 20s into the RGV. There will be waves of moisture as the flow out of the SW so frozen precip is possible almost at any point in for a 10+ day period though I don't expect any single big event.

I respect you. I know you know your weather pretty well but man that’s a bold statement. What’s up with the Euro?

Has not started yet, it starts at 11:50 AM

[Cpv17]

The leading edge is now 72 hours out so it is within 3 days. I expect the front to come in faster than modeled as is typical of Arctic fronts so DFW could be in the cold air by Tue night or early Wed. The front should clear all of the state by late Thu. By Sun morning northern portion of the state will be between -5 and 15 with 20s into the RGV. There will be waves of moisture as the flow out of the SW so frozen precip is possible almost at any point in for a 10+ day period though I don't expect any single big event.

I respect you. I know you know your weather pretty well but man that’s a bold statement. What’s up with the Euro?

Has not started yet, it starts at 11:50 AM

Yeah I know. I was referring to why it’s a 180 degree difference from other models. I mean I know why actually. Because it splits the PV and there’s a lack of blocking over Alaska but man I don’t understand how it could be so different.

[Ralph's Weather]

I respect you. I know you know your weather pretty well but man that’s a bold statement. What’s up with the Euro?

Has not started yet, it starts at 11:50 AM

Yeah I know. I was referring to why it’s a 180 degree difference from other models. I mean I know why actually. Because it splits the PV and there’s a lack of blocking over Alaska but man I don’t understand how it could be so different.

If the Euro is right I will take it on the chin, but it just doesn't make sense. I never trust an outlier even when it is the Euro.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Ensembles Valentines day Temperature Anomaly....A few members are seeing what the Euro is seeing.

[TheProfessor]

At hour 198 the GFS has a temperature of 18 degrees at DFW. The CMC has a temperature of 73! at that same time. That's a 55 degree difference between the models. We're getting some conflicting teleconnections right now. The PNA is expected to trend positive (good news for cold lovers) while the NAO and AO are expected to trend positive as well (bad news). The AO likely won't go positive as it's very negative right now, but we must remember that the actual trend is important when using teleconnections. It makes sense for there to be a short term torch if the first cold outbreak fails to arrive.

I think it's very possible that we something where the cold does come for parts of Texas but doesn't have staying power and we see a quick warm up (maybe 50s or 60s for North Texas for example) followed by another cold push when the NAO and AO tank again. However, with the PNA trending positive there's definitely high uncertainty and it makes sense on why the models would be all over the place. With a favorable PNA and EPO I could still see Texas receive a significant cold blast, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it busted in the Southeast due to the southeast ridge.

[Iceresistance]

I respect you. I know you know your weather pretty well but man that’s a bold statement. What’s up with the Euro?

Has not started yet, it starts at 11:50 AM

Yeah I know. I was referring to why it’s a 180 degree difference from other models. I mean I know why actually. Because it splits the PV and there’s a lack of blocking over Alaska but man I don’t understand how it could be so different.

The Alaska ridge has developed for sure! Even on ECMWF!



The AO is also going even MORE NEGATIVE! (Down to -5!)

[Texas Snow]

12zGFS Ensembles Valentines day Temperature Anomaly....A few members are seeing what the Euro is seeing.

https://i.imgur.com/bSsDcbP.png

How does the panel compare to the run 24 hours ago?

[Iceresistance]

At hour 198 the GFS has a temperature of 18 degrees at DFW. The CMC has a temperature of 73! at that same time. That's a 55 degree difference between the models. We're getting some conflicting teleconnections right now. The PNA is expected to trend positive (good news for cold lovers) while the NAO and AO are expected to trend positive as well (bad news). The AO likely won't go positive as it's very negative right now, but we must remember that the actual trend is important when using teleconnections. It makes sense for there to be a short term torch if the first cold outbreak fails to arrive.

I think it's very possible that we something where the cold does come for parts of Texas but doesn't have staying power and we see a quick warm up (maybe 50s or 60s for North Texas for example) followed by another cold push when the NAO and AO tank again. However, with the PNA trending positive there's definitely high uncertainty and it makes sense on why the models would be all over the place. With a favorable PNA and EPO I could still see Texas receive a significant cold blast, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it busted in the Southeast due to the southeast ridge.

The AO is going towards even more Negative right now, & so is the NAO.

How Negative they could go could cause the PV to either last longer or move away faster

[Cpv17]

Someone mentioned a while back that models have been trying to forecast the AO going more positive but it keeps failing to happen. It continues to be way negative.

[TheProfessor]

At hour 198 the GFS has a temperature of 18 degrees at DFW. The CMC has a temperature of 73! at that same time. That's a 55 degree difference between the models. We're getting some conflicting teleconnections right now. The PNA is expected to trend positive (good news for cold lovers) while the NAO and AO are expected to trend positive as well (bad news). The AO likely won't go positive as it's very negative right now, but we must remember that the actual trend is important when using teleconnections. It makes sense for there to be a short term torch if the first cold outbreak fails to arrive.

I think it's very possible that we something where the cold does come for parts of Texas but doesn't have staying power and we see a quick warm up (maybe 50s or 60s for North Texas for example) followed by another cold push when the NAO and AO tank again. However, with the PNA trending positive there's definitely high uncertainty and it makes sense on why the models would be all over the place. With a favorable PNA and EPO I could still see Texas receive a significant cold blast, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it busted in the Southeast due to the southeast ridge.

The AO is going towards even more Negative right now, & so is the NAO.

How Negative they could go could cause the PV to either last longer or move away faster

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/ao.sprd2e4ada7592b0aa698.gif
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/nao.sprd28b0ca681a5ca8fb1.gif

Yes, there's a chance that they don't trend positive at all, but right now there's decent consensus that they will trend positive later this week. After that it's up in the air. The positive trend is a possible reason as to why the CMC is showing torch. It's always good to ask why a model is showing something and if it makes sense. The CMC has a cool blast followed by a potent warm up. This would make sense if the NAO and AO trend negative and then sharply positive. That's why the cold may not last. The PNA and EPO are what throw wrenches in the forecast for the Plains as they can both reinforce the cold, meanwhile even though the PNA does have an influence on the east coast and southeast, the EPO has less so and can be dominated by a strong AO and NAO combination if they trend positive, which is why it's even more likely the Southeast sees only short term cold and perhaps a torch.

[txtwister78]

CMC ENS still coming in cold for late next week so far.

[TheProfessor]

Someone mentioned a while back that models have been trying to forecast the AO going more positive but it keeps failing to happen. It continues to be way negative.

That was Ntxw, who is brilliant and may very well be right, but we have seen sharp AO flips pretty often, we saw it go from sharply positive to negative in November into December. I do think that flip will happen in the next month or so as we head into the spring (as well as the return of a -PNA as it's very difficult to get consistent +PNA during La Nina). The models might very well be trying to flip it too early though and in that case the warm models will likely be very wrong.

[Iceresistance]

CMC ENS still coming in cold for late next week so far.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1612699200/1613120400-6H2gPr3amAU.png

Better late than never I guess