Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

12z GFS showing more moisture in far west Texas into New Mexico so far, lets see if it builds it into Texas any this run.

[Portastorm]

Yes iorange55!

Oh my ... check out the 12z GFS run at 96 hours. Notice the precip in New Mexico and West Texas? Then look at the 300mb level and you'll see the upper-level energy coming down the Polar jet and creating lift. THAT is something to watch!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_096l.gif

[srainhoutx]

Yes iorange55!

Oh my ... check out the 12z GFS run at 96 hours. Notice the precip in New Mexico and West Texas? Then look at the 300mb level and you'll see the upper-level energy coming down the Polar jet and creating lift. THAT is something to watch!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_096l.gif

Notice the Jet streak coming across MX toward TX a bit further S heading NE as well. Hmmm...

[iorange55]

It builds it a tiny bit more West, but not much, and then shows it kind of dying out. But to me that is a very interesting run seems like each run it tries to build more, and more moisture. As we get closer that slug of moisture might be more of a problem/fun times then some think right now, who knows.

[Ntxw]

It is moving into very dry cold air, hard to tap into much moisture. It's a good start though!

[iorange55]

:uarrow: It is moving into very dry cold air, hard to tap into much moisture. It's a good start though!

Yes, but that doesn't make it impossible for Disturbances to come, and drop off some moisture it just makes it a little harder.

[Portastorm]

At that time frame (102 hrs) of the 12z GFS run ... there's some moisture also at the 700mb level so it's squeezing something out of the atmosphere.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_102l.gif

While I wouldn't dream of Winter Storm Warnings just yet for Friday ... I think srainhoutx is right in that we shouldn't close the door on any possibility until about 24-36 hours from the event when better data is available.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

At that time frame (102 hrs) of the 12z GFS run ... there's some moisture also at the 700mb level so it's squeezing something out of the atmosphere.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_102l.gif

While I wouldn't dream of Winter Storm Warnings just yet for Friday ... I think srainhoutx is right in that we shouldn't close the door on any possibility until about 24-36 hours from the event when better data is available.

We don't want you to become the Nick Folk or Chris Johnson of the Storm2k thread....

I do notice some moisture trying real hard to move up from Mexico on Friday/Saturday.

[cycloneye]

This is why we are seeing this winter behave as is doing,thanks to El Nino.To Portastorm,Steve and others who always like to see what is going on with ENSO,here is the latest update from Climate Prediction Center.Some decrease in the temperature anomalies in three of the four areas but still its a moderate to strong El Nino.

Last week numbers

Niño 4= +1.5ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.9ºC
Niño 3= +1.6ºC
Niño1+2= +0.5ºC

This week numbers

Niño 4= +1.4ºC
Niño 3.4= +1.8ºC
Niño 3= +1.4ºC
Niño1+2= +0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Portastorm]

At that time frame (102 hrs) of the 12z GFS run ... there's some moisture also at the 700mb level so it's squeezing something out of the atmosphere.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_102l.gif

While I wouldn't dream of Winter Storm Warnings just yet for Friday ... I think srainhoutx is right in that we shouldn't close the door on any possibility until about 24-36 hours from the event when better data is available.

We don't want you to become the Nick Folk or Chris Johnson of the Storm2k thread....

I do notice some moisture trying real hard to move up from Mexico on Friday/Saturday.

Just as long as I'm not called the Shaun Suisham of S2K!

[srainhoutx]

Thanks Luis. Also seeing another MJO pulse heading toward the dateline as well. STJ activity will likely not go away anytime soon.

[wxman57]

Yes iorange55!

Oh my ... check out the 12z GFS run at 96 hours. Notice the precip in New Mexico and West Texas? Then look at the 300mb level and you'll see the upper-level energy coming down the Polar jet and creating lift. THAT is something to watch!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_096l.gif

That looks like upslope precipitation in the mountains. It's not going to move east across Texas.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey guys what about us here in south LA? All the talk is about record cold and possible precip for SE TX and the southeast AL,FL,MS. Have not seen or heard much of any discussions for us. Also per the latest forecast they are saying to expect some modifying temps by late weekend. But I remember seeing possible even colder temps for next week. Is that still being shown as well? Care to shed some light on things over here? Thanks.

[Ntxw]

Hey guys what about us here in south LA? All the talk is about record cold and possible precip for SE TX and the southeast AL,FL,MS. Have not seen or heard much of any discussions for us. Also per the latest forecast they are saying to expect some modifying temps by late weekend. But I remember seeing possible even colder temps for next week. Is that still being shown as well? Care to shed some light on things over here? Thanks.

Your forecast isn't far off from S\E Texas. Whatever happens there would most likely do the same in s\sw LA. Only difference would be timing.

[gofrogs]

No comments from fellow ntxns about next week and beyond gfs is showing some intresitng things. A stormy and cold pattern even under 200 hours out.

[srainhoutx]

GGEM at 102 hours still raises an eyebrow. The CMC has been rather consistent with some QPF across TX...

[txagwxman]

ECMWF should be interesting.

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF should be interesting.

I agree. If we see a strung out S/W as well as the Baja feature again, it will likely have to be considered rather strongly. Just not sold on the GFS solution beyond 24-48 hour time frame since the Parallel became the new operational.

[funster]

Yes iorange55!

Oh my ... check out the 12z GFS run at 96 hours. Notice the precip in New Mexico and West Texas? Then look at the 300mb level and you'll see the upper-level energy coming down the Polar jet and creating lift. THAT is something to watch!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_096l.gif

That looks like upslope precipitation in the mountains. It's not going to move east across Texas.

Yeah, it might be coming. Looks like way too much precip for just mountain enhancement. It might be coming to bring yet another exciting Texas snow! Besides you can't snuff out our snowthusiasm even if you are right. Texas is the new Green Bay! Texas is the new Erie, Ohio!! Texas is the new Houghton, Michigan!!! Non-stop snow whammies in Texas Winter 2010!!!

[txagwxman]

ECMWF should be interesting.

I agree. If we see a strung out S/W as well as the Baja feature again, it will likely have to be considered rather strongly. Just not sold on the GFS solution beyond 24-48 hour time frame since the Parallel became the new operational.

The new GFS has been horrible. Although it did do a decent job on this cold shot 7 - 8 day ago.