Texas Winter 2018-2019

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I haven’t seen the dramatic worst case scenario winter weather forecasts that fwd mentioned in the discussion this morning. By the language used they are not referring to this forum. Anyone know what social media forecasts nws fw keeps warning everyone to avoid?

[wxman57]

12Z EC temps/precip are in. Low at DFW dropped from 26 to 25 on Sunday in the latest run. Temps in the mid 30s next Wednesday during the precip.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC12ZDFW.JPG

Does that graph show a dusting of snow on the bottom? Total snow row.

I'm not sure what that is. Looking at the precip line just above that, it turns blue with temps in the 50s. Can't be snow.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12Z EC temps/precip are in. Low at DFW dropped from 26 to 25 on Sunday in the latest run. Temps in the mid 30s next Wednesday during the precip.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC12ZDFW.JPG

Does that graph show a dusting of snow on the bottom? Total snow row.

dusting or so Saturday and then a little more Wednesday yes

maybe we can get a white roof

Haha, i guess it's a bad idea to post the pics of our sleet/snow event 1 year ago today

Euro ensembles still cold. I've been harping on PV over hudson bay being the sweet spot, but if i could adjust that slightly....

Blocking near Greenland is all were missing in our equation, this would nudge the PV slightly west so it can steer HP's our direction. If we could ask for onnnneeeeee more thing.

[Brent]

the Euro "snow" map had an inch for DFW too... what can go wrong?

and I'd rather not remember a year ago... another reason I've been salty

[orangeblood]

Does that graph show a dusting of snow on the bottom? Total snow row.

dusting or so Saturday and then a little more Wednesday yes

maybe we can get a white roof

Haha, i guess it's a bad idea to post the pics of our sleet/snow event 1 year ago today

Euro ensembles still cold. I've been harping on PV over hudson bay being the sweet spot, but if i could adjust that slightly....

Blocking near Greenland is all were missing in our equation, this would nudge the PV slightly west so it can steer HP's our direction. If we could ask for onnnneeeeee more thing.

According to Euro ENS, Greenland Block forms in the 10-15 day time frame it appears

Good trend in the 10-15 as well, decent shift of the PV south and west and thus core of the cold in that direction!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Yep today is the one year anniversary of last year's decent snow and extreme cold. I Got down into the teens with snow still falling and then high of only 22. The next two mornings featured lows of 6 and 11. Parts of N TX bottomed out below 0.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models continue to fall in line with our thoughts from early this winter of late Jan into Feb being the sweet spot for winter weather (cold and snow). Pattern showing up nicely in ensembles.

[rwfromkansas]

12Z EC temps/precip are in. Low at DFW dropped from 26 to 25 on Sunday in the latest run. Temps in the mid 30s next Wednesday during the precip.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC12ZDFW.JPG

That’s a week out. Those temps could +/- by 10 degrees yet. Next week is trending colder on every model so I’d bet on it being colder right now.

It was trending colder for this weekend a few days ago. Now it's looking like marginal temps again. I have learned not to bet on anything at this point.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not loving how the NAM is trending weaker and weaker with the weekend storm.

[Texas Snow]

I have lost my bookmarks for ensembles and its been so long that I don't remember which site I got them from. Any suggestions for a good site would be appreciated.

Not sure if anyone can help me out here. I know how to go to say weather.us and see individual ensembles, but what I am trying to remember is where to see all the members of a model on one screen? I've lost my bookmark somewhere but I had it last winter (not that it did me any good) Thanks in advance.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z EC temps/precip are in. Low at DFW dropped from 26 to 25 on Sunday in the latest run. Temps in the mid 30s next Wednesday during the precip.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC12ZDFW.JPG

That’s a week out. Those temps could +/- by 10 degrees yet. Next week is trending colder on every model so I’d bet on it being colder right now.

It was trending colder for this weekend a few days ago. Now it's looking like marginal temps again. I have learned not to bet on anything at this point.

Difference is this storm does not have anything more than climo to support its cold. Next week has the support of the developing PV anomaly so confidence in cold is higher. As we move beyond next week the connection to the PV grows so cold is even more likely.

[Brent]

Not loving how the NAM is trending weaker and weaker with the weekend storm.

yeah I really thought the NAM was gonna back up the snowier solution for Saturday

Not giving me a good vibe

I have lost my bookmarks for ensembles and its been so long that I don't remember which site I got them from. Any suggestions for a good site would be appreciated.

Not sure if anyone can help me out here. I know how to go to say weather.us and see individual ensembles, but what I am trying to remember is where to see all the members of a model on one screen? I've lost my bookmark somewhere but I had it last winter (not that it did me any good) Thanks in advance.

not sure about the EPS but the GEFS members can be found here https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ GEFS>sector view>precip products>ensemble snow

[orangeblood]

Not loving how the NAM is trending weaker and weaker with the weekend storm.

NAM has been terrible so far this winter, not sure I'd put much stock into it at this point!

[Ralph's Weather]

Not loving how the NAM is trending weaker and weaker with the weekend storm.

NAM has been terrible so far this winter, not sure I'd put much stock into it at this point!

True, wish we had a medium range model of good quality. Anyone have any opinion on the hi res Euro? Not sure the RGEM is much better than the NAm but maybe at times.

[northjaxpro]

I know this is the Texas thread, and it is probably safe to assume that a good percentage of you all here probably did not track or monitor the December 8-10 NC/VA major winter storm like I did on the Deep South thread. But, rest assured, the NAM performed quite well with that system. I can attest to that.

[Cerlin]

I know this is the Texas thread, and it is probably safe to assume that a good percentage of you all here probably did not track or monitor the December 8-10 NC/VA major winter storm like I did on the Deep South thread. But, rest assured, the NAM performed quite well with that system. I can attest to that.

It performs relatively well...sometimes...like in the case of that storm...but it really has underperformed in the Texas side of things.

[weatherdude1108]

I agree, the FV3-GFS is definitely right for NEXT week. Plan on a half foot of snow in Dallas. I guarantee it!

You serious Clark?

Just cracks me up.

[northjaxpro]

I know this is the Texas thread, and it is probably safe to assume that a good percentage of you all here probably did not track or monitor the December 8-10 NC/VA major winter storm like I did on the Deep South thread. But, rest assured, the NAM performed quite well with that system. I can attest to that.

It performs relatively well...sometimes...like in the case of that storm...but it really has underperformed in the Texas side of things.

I do not doubt any of what you all are saying about the NAM's performance with the Texas systems this winter thus far. These models all have certain quirks. They are not perfect of course. Overall, though, The NAM usually does well with winter time storms and synoptics, which I am sure most know already.


I admit, I am a big admirer of the NAM for winter synoptics..

[ThunderSleetDreams]

dusting or so Saturday and then a little more Wednesday yes

maybe we can get a white roof

Haha, i guess it's a bad idea to post the pics of our sleet/snow event 1 year ago today

Euro ensembles still cold. I've been harping on PV over hudson bay being the sweet spot, but if i could adjust that slightly....

Blocking near Greenland is all were missing in our equation, this would nudge the PV slightly west so it can steer HP's our direction. If we could ask for onnnneeeeee more thing.

According to Euro ENS, Greenland Block forms in the 10-15 day time frame it appears

Good trend in the 10-15 as well, decent shift of the PV south and west and thus core of the cold in that direction!!!

Yep...

[TheProfessor]

The NAM also did very well for me this past weekend. It could be a regional thing with the NAM.