Texas Winter 2012-2013

[weatherdude1108]

Maybe we should start a Spring thread.

[wxman57]

^ I don't see it, that looks to me like the lower strat is being attacked and you see three vorts. There is no consolidation in the upper levels (30-70hpa) are thoroughly destroyed, top down event.

We go through this every year even 2010 and 2011 late Jan. Last year even had a slight turn around in Feb, don't call the end game until every quarter is played!

Yeah but Wxman57 said "Winter cancel"...LOL

I canceled winter earlier this month, it snowed/sleeted in dfw a week later. Now it's wxman's turn, he just jinxed himself

I just said that we (in Texas) have already seen the coldest weather that we're going to see this winter. And I think we have. I don't think we'll see (Houston) another day with a high in the low 40s like last week.

[Portastorm]

No more days with highs in the low 40s in Houston? Preposterous! For in fact Old Man Winter sent me an email moments ago and he has a picture of you wxman57 from the future, trying to your ride bike alongside the bayou in SW Houston in about two weeks.

Look, here it is:



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[wxman57]

That can't be me. I wouldn't be out in the snow without my neoprene mask on. No skin would be showing.

[Ntxw]

Most models today agree the Alaskan storm that is causing the mild weather this week will be flushed this weekend. NE Pac ridging will replace it once again and that spells mischief (28th-Feb 2nd idea still). How much cold air will we get into that system? We will see, it will at least bring more rain and severe weather on the warm side.

CFSv2 backed off the Feb warmth a little bit today from yesterday

[Palmer divide shadow]

Hopefully it brings a blizzard and a few feet of snow to Colorado.We really need the snowpack.

[Ntxw]

Anyone else notice the sub 930mb bomb the GFS/Euro are putting in the North Atlantic this week? What is up with the two big oceans and Goliath storms!

[wxman57]

Hopefully it brings a blizzard and a few feet of snow to Colorado.We really need the snowpack.

Lacking a southern storm track, Colorado may be left high and dry as far as significant snowfall. Some snow early next week with the passage of the upper trof but the long-range outlook is for above normal temps and drier conditions in CO.

[wxman57]

Anyone else notice the sub 930mb bomb the GFS/Euro are putting in the North Atlantic this week? What is up with the two big oceans and Goliath storms!

Yesterday's 18Z GFS had it down to 919mb.

[Ntxw]

Yesterday's 18Z GFS had it down to 919mb.

That is absolutely crazy, worthy of cat 5's.

For those following the models today could not have been any worse. GFS has a very +PNA second half, Euro has very -PNA. GFS pops the +AO some 4 SD's while it's ensembles sink it. Euro puts a -EPO after this week and GFS has a +EPO

[Portastorm]

^ I don't see it, that looks to me like the lower strat is being attacked and you see three vorts. There is no consolidation in the upper levels (30-70hpa) are thoroughly destroyed, top down event.

We go through this every year even 2010 and 2011 late Jan. Last year even had a slight turn around in Feb, don't call the end game until every quarter is played!

Not calling the end of winter by any means but we need a heck of a sustained cold snap just to get back to normal for the winter....somewhere in the magnitude of 4-5 deg below normal from here on out. If you look at the numbers, temp wise we are right where we were last year up to this point with the only difference being a little more snow. Hopefully, February makes a big turn!!

What numbers are you looking at, orangeblood? Austin is running about a half degree colder than last year at this time if you compare the December 2011-January 2012 average temps to December 2012-January 2013 (so far). So technically we are colder than we were last year. A half degree may not seem like much but when you consider it is a half degree of the average mean temperature, that's a fair amount colder.

[wxman57]

Yesterday's 18Z GFS had it down to 919mb.

That is absolutely crazy, worthy of cat 5's.

For those following the models today could not have been any worse. GFS has a very +PNA second half, Euro has very -PNA. GFS pops the +AO some 4 SD's while it's ensembles sink it. Euro puts a -EPO after this week and GFS has a +EPO

While it's true that the pressure may be representative of some Cat 5s of the past, the resulting wind speeds are more like a strong TS or borderline Cat 1 due to the very large distance over which that change of pressure occurs in an ET storm. The wind/pressure field is about 1500 miles across. Since wind speed is proportional to the rate of change of pressure over a particular distance, the wind speed isn't as extreme as the pressure would suggest. But a very large area of 50-60 kt winds will make for some mighty large waves.

Such a storm, if it were to take the same path as Sandy did, would produce an even larger storm surge into NY/NJ and southern New England.

[amawea]

Feburary is going to be cold the first half, then warm up and then cold going into March before spring takes over in late March.

Trust me.....

Is this based on the second half of halloween being warmer than normal?

[Texas Snowman]

^ I don't see it, that looks to me like the lower strat is being attacked and you see three vorts. There is no consolidation in the upper levels (30-70hpa) are thoroughly destroyed, top down event.

We go through this every year even 2010 and 2011 late Jan. Last year even had a slight turn around in Feb, don't call the end game until every quarter is played!

Not calling the end of winter by any means but we need a heck of a sustained cold snap just to get back to normal for the winter....somewhere in the magnitude of 4-5 deg below normal from here on out. If you look at the numbers, temp wise we are right where we were last year up to this point with the only difference being a little more snow. Hopefully, February makes a big turn!!

What numbers are you looking at, orangeblood? Austin is running about a half degree colder than last year at this time if you compare the December 2011-January 2012 average temps to December 2012-January 2013 (so far). So technically we are colder than we were last year. A half degree may not seem like much but when you consider it is a half degree of the average mean temperature, that's a fair amount colder.

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing. We are below normal here in Sherman/Denison too. Since mid-December, we've had a two-inch snowfall, a one-inch snowfall, and two mornings with a trace of snow/sleet. Had some snow on the ground (drifts, shady areas) for seven days after the Christmas snowfall. Lots of mornings below freezing with highs in the upper 30s and 40s. Lowest I've seen so far is 14 degrees at the house.

Definitely a FAR cry from last winter.

And it's still just January 22. We've had snow up here in the Red River Valley in recent years as late as the third week of March.

[Texas Snowman]

I know that this doesn't mean squat for Texas depending on a number of things including trajectory of the air (if it verifies).

But Joe B thinks this current blast of Arctic air in the northern Great Plains, Midwest, and NE U.S. isn't the worst to come.

"@BigJoeBastardi: This is NOT the coldest shot of winter. Feb. 1-15 likely to make up for anyone who thinks there is no winter in US."

[Palmer divide shadow]

Thanks wxman 57.That's what I have figured.Gonna be a long fire season

[Portastorm]

Thanks wxman 57.That's what I have figured.Gonna be a long fire season

While I hope that is not the case for you folks in Colorado, I fear it very well may be. I was reading some comments last week from your neighbors to the east (Oklahoma) who are concerned about the upcoming late winter/early spring due to duststorms. In fact, some Okies are worried about having one of the worst duststorm seasons in decades.

[Ntxw]

I concur with Portastorm's comments. The high/central plains are having it bad. We had a horrible drought situation in Texas summer of 2011 but last winter there was appreciable rain to help out a little over the summer and this winter has had several bouts of rain. They however have had the drought since spring and a very dry summer now winter. No end in sight for them.

[wxman57]

I know that this doesn't mean squat for Texas depending on a number of things including trajectory of the air (if it verifies).

But Joe B thinks this current blast of Arctic air in the northern Great Plains, Midwest, and NE U.S. isn't the worst to come.

"@BigJoeBastardi: This is NOT the coldest shot of winter. Feb. 1-15 likely to make up for anyone who thinks there is no winter in US."

Joe's "US" consists mostly of the Midwest and northeast. He's right that the pattern looks cold for them. We'll probably be on the borderline between above and below normal temps here in east Texas. That's sort of... normal.

High-res Euro is finally in. 2-meter temps for Texas next Thu/Fri (not this week) bottom out in the 34-38F range from Dallas down to Houston. Highs in the mid to upper 50s Thu-Fri.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLOW AND A MODERATE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. CLOUDY MORNINGS WITH GULF STRATUS BEGIN WEDNESDAY...BUT
SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOONS. ON THURSDAY...WITH
THE AID OF SOME GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS...WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW SITES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES MAY EVEN REACH
80.

GUIDANCE PUTS THE NEXT COLD FRONT /PACIFIC/ THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY...A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE VERY LIMITED AND HAVE TRIMMED THE 20 POPS TO THE FAR
EAST.

BEGINNING SATURDAY...GUIDANCE THEN FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE FLOW SWITCHES TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
STRONG TROF THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDING UP OVER THE COOLER AIR
BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE 850 HPA FRONT SITS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY AS AN INDICATOR OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER
AIR...AND I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW LITTLE INSTABILITY BUT DEEP MOISTURE SO KEPT THE
PRECIP TYPE AS SHOWERS AND NO THUNDER. LOW POPS /SHOWERS/ ARE
INDICATED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PACKAGE
WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE TIMING DISTURBANCES THAT FAR OUT IS
DIFFICULT.

THE GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED
BETTER CONTINUITY AS WELL...SO I BIASED THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME DISTURBANCES
THIS FAR OUT...BUT GOOD GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BEGINNING
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH TX.