Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Both the EPS and GEFS are looking much better after the 20th.

25th through 1st week of February is when the -EPO could really unload, interested in this period. It's such a hard flip on the most of the guidance. Could also see the strat activity extend this for a longer duration than what we saw in December.

I’m be doing my backcountry skiing on the Divide then

Ill be in Crested Butte for my annual trip the last weekend of Jan, for a week. If they get a cold blast there, it quickly becomes one of the coldest places in the lower 48 for some time. Cold temps take forever to leave when they have a cold blast.

Last year it was -11 at noon and the sunshine was shining as bright as ever

[Itryatgolf]

I thought the ensembles looked somewhat better with more ridging up towards Alaska and west coast, but that's still out in no man's land.

[Cpv17]

I thought the ensembles looked somewhat better with more ridging up towards Alaska and west coast, but that's still out in no man's land.

Yeah the last few runs of the ensembles have been going in the right direction. Setting up a cold dump late January or early February.

[Itryatgolf]

I thought the ensembles looked somewhat better with more ridging up towards Alaska and west coast, but that's still out in no man's land.

Yeah the last few runs of the ensembles have been going in the right direction. Setting up a cold dump late January or early February.

Canada has been way above average so we have to get them colder before we can get cold

[Cpv17]

I thought the ensembles looked somewhat better with more ridging up towards Alaska and west coast, but that's still out in no man's land.

Yeah the last few runs of the ensembles have been going in the right direction. Setting up a cold dump late January or early February.

Canada has been way above average so we have to get them colder before we can get cold

Yep. Don’t care what anyone says, the Pacific has torched us and Canada. Whole damn continent. I had a high of 82°F today. Nutso!

[Itryatgolf]

Yeah the last few runs of the ensembles have been going in the right direction. Setting up a cold dump late January or early February.

Canada has been way above average so we have to get them colder before we can get cold

Yep. Don’t care what anyone says, the Pacific has torched us and Canada. Whole damn continent. I had a high of 82°F today. Nutso!

What's interesting is this jet is not from niña but strong niño like atmosphere causing it

[Iceresistance]

Ultra Long Range GEFS and GFS are hinting the cold to start building in NW Canada in Late January/Early February.

[Itryatgolf]

Ultra Long Range GEFS and GFS are hinting the cold to start building in NW Canada in Late January/Early February.

It will take a while most likely because of so much warm air around the continents. It sucks to waste the coldest month of the year on warm air

[Ntxw]

Ultra Long Range GEFS and GFS are hinting the cold to start building in NW Canada in Late January/Early February.

It will take a while most likely because of so much warm air around the continents. It sucks to waste the coldest month of the year on warm air

Like we saw in December it actually won't take that long. Can flip in matter of days. <500dm heights at 5h are more expensive in mid to late winter. You just have to shut off the Pacific air and Arctic air builds pretty quick in its place from Canadian archipelago towards the west.

[Itryatgolf]

Ultra Long Range GEFS and GFS are hinting the cold to start building in NW Canada in Late January/Early February.

It will take a while most likely because of so much warm air around the continents. It sucks to waste the coldest month of the year on warm air

Like we saw in December it actually won't take that long. Can flip in matter of days. <500dm heights at 5h are more expensive in mid to late winter. You just have to shut off the Pacific air and Arctic air builds pretty quick in its place from Canadian archipelago towards the west.

From what i gathered, the ensembles are retracting the jet significantly. Also another east Asian high is building with more positive EAMT that should extend the jet again, but more towards Hawaii, if true, should build the west coast ridge and possibly a -epo. That's our opportunity right there, unless we develop a decent ssw event that sends cold our way to extend the somewhat cooler pattern. Imo, we would want to see a legitimate -epo for more realistic cold

[wxman57]

Such a pleasant winter day today. Houston hit a record high of 81 degrees. Can't beat that for January. Long-range GFS indicates the entire US and all of southern Canada above-normal in two weeks. Some cold air in northern Canada, but I've built a tertiary wall way up there now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023010718/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png

[Tireman4]

Such a pleasant winter day today. Houston hit a record high of 81 degrees. Can't beat that for January. Long-range GFS indicates the entire US and all of southern Canada above-normal in two weeks. Some cold air in northern Canada, but I've built a tertiary wall way up there now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023010718/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png

Can even the most well built walls be penetrated?

[Cpv17]

Such a pleasant winter day today. Houston hit a record high of 81 degrees. Can't beat that for January. Long-range GFS indicates the entire US and all of southern Canada above-normal in two weeks. Some cold air in northern Canada, but I've built a tertiary wall way up there now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023010718/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png

I have some security that will be headed up there to blow up your wall with some explosives and they will be stationed up there till March 20th to make sure you don’t attempt a rebuild.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Personally, I am enjoying the heat. Keep it above a low of 45, and I am happy. Usually north GA gets crummy 35f L to 55f H with rain. Give me snow, or give me 60F + highs.

[Gotwood]

Personally, I am enjoying the heat. Keep it above a low of 45, and I am happy. Usually north GA gets crummy 35f L to 55f H with rain. Give me snow, or give me 60F + highs.

I’m kinda in this boat too. Cold without winter precipitation is lame. However, we need cold in order for there to even be winter precipitation.

[bubba hotep]

18z GEFS was by far the most encouraging run in a while. The GEFS is trending towards relaxing the Pacific jet and shifting equatorward. That allows for wave breaking across the NPAC and ridging into WCAN with some cold in place. The EPS is still a bit more aggressive with the Pacific jet, which results in a pattern that doesn't really build any cold anomalies (the air is still cold) so there is no big reservoir for the EPO to push down. It looks more seasonal to slightly below normal.

[Yukon Cornelius]

High of 53 today with a chilly north wind. It was pleasant but I, along with many other are ready for another extreme cold blast.

[bubba hotep]

Things are getting a little spicy down in NW Houston

[Brent]

High of 53 today with a chilly north wind. It was pleasant but I, along with many other are ready for another extreme cold blast.

Was warmer than forecast here and today was supposed to be our coldest day

[Ntxw]

The run itself isn't important, but to illustrate how quickly cold and appear on the guidance. Eventually the TPV will focus on North America where cold will pool.