Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[LAwxrgal]

The good news (if you can call this good news) is that the models are coming in colder and wetter and this front is stronger than expected.

Winter weather events down here are almost never predicted in advance.

[BigB0882]

At hour 72 the GFS has the snow line right around Lafayette. I can't remember what it looked like at 12z. Has it nudged a little southeast?

GFS not nearly as nice with QPF for anyone.

[Metalicwx220]

The good news (if you can call this good news) is that the models are coming in colder and wetter and this front is stronger than expected.

Winter weather events down here are almost never predicted in advance.

I Like readind u ivan and bigbo...... posts. Anyways I hope I see snow.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey BigB, I guess we can expect a few sleepness nights waiting on model runs. Just like hurricane season except its cold outside. Anyway if I see BTR is getting snow and me living 15 minutes south of Highland Road getting nothing but a cold rain or sleet mix you can rest assure I will show up at your front door to share a snow day with you.

[BigB0882]

Hey BigB, I guess we can expect a few sleepness nights waiting on model runs. Just like hurricane season except its cold outside. Anyway if I see BTR is getting snow and me living 15 minutes south of Highland Road getting nothing but a cold rain or sleet mix you can rest assure I will show up at your front door to share a snow day with you.

LOL! Deal! Hopefully we all get in on the fun and LOTS of it!

[MississippiWx]

Our NWS office in Jackson changed our forecast almost completely here in Hattiesburg. Forecasting mainly rain. Not sure what made them back off their earlier predictions, but it's not looking good for winter weather here now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

BigB, what area of BTR do you live in? I am all over the city due to work and just wonder if I am ever in your neighborhood.?

[BigB0882]

BigB, what area of BTR do you live in? I am all over the city due to work and just wonder if I am ever in your neighborhood.?

I'm off of Burbank near Bluebonnet. Not far from campus.

[TideJoe]

Our NWS office in Jackson changed our forecast almost completely here in Hattiesburg. Forecasting mainly rain. Not sure what made them back off their earlier predictions, but it's not looking good for winter weather here now.

That's pretty typical for us. The Jackson office is very conservative on these types of events and I am too. Getting excited over the NAM 70+ hours out is a little silly too...... we really need the GFS and Euro to come around before the Jackson office is going to jump on board.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And so it begins. Finally was able to get on NWS site and check the latest forecast for my parish, which is just south of Baton Rouge.
It is not my pinpoint forecast as I live in the northern part but instead an overview for the entire parish. I don't remeber a time when I have had so much trouble logging on before.


Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of light rain...light freezing rain and light sleet after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy. Slight chance of light rain or light freezing rain and light sleet in the morning...then rain likely and chance of light sleet in the afternoon. Highs around 40. North winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Thursday Night...Chance of light rain...light freezing rain and light sleet in the evening...then freezing rain likely or rain after midnight. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Lows around 30. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Friday...Cloudy. Light rain or light freezing rain likely in the morning...then light rain likely in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Friday Night...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of light rain and snow in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Also of note they have bumped our highs down on Thursday to near 40. Earlier today was in the mid 40's. They have left the rest of the highs and lows alone though. Guess they are waiting on more model guidance to come in to see if it will be colder the rest of the week with all the snow pack to our north?

[MississippiWx]

Starting to look like the farther EAST you are, the less chance you have at any wintry precip. Since the coldest air is having a tough time moving east, that will result in places SE of Baton Rouge to Laurel and Birmingham seeing mostly rain. You can thank that +NAO for not getting the cold air farther east because it helps build a ridge in the SW Atlantic. Looks like another near miss for Southern areas that are east of Louisiana.

Hopefully models will trend colder.

[Ivanhater]

Starting to look like the farther EAST you are, the less chance you have at any wintry precip. Since the coldest air is having a tough time moving east, that will result in places SE of Baton Rouge to Laurel and Birmingham seeing mostly rain. You can thank that +NAO for not getting the cold air farther east because it helps build a ridge in the SW Atlantic. Looks like another near miss for Southern areas that are east of Louisiana.

Hopefully models will trend colder.

The issue is not with the cold air not being here, it will be the warm air coming in with the Gulf low. However, with the snow pack the cold air will probably stand firmer than what the models are currently showing. Nam is trending stronger and stronger with that. That is why you see heavy snowfall accumulation around Mobile, Alabama earlier on (54 hours on the Nam) before the warm air takes over. Again, gotta love the trends.

[bella_may]

They have bumped our temps down for thursday as well. High is now only 39 degrees and it was 40 or 41 earlier. Low is now 35 which has dropper from the 39 it forecasted earlier

[PTrackerLA]

NWS New Orleans mentions possibility of a significant ice storm. It has been 14 years since we've had one around here.

AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS INLAND NEAR BTR-MCB...THE LOW/MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH DRY AND COLD AIR FOR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARMING IN THE
ELEVATED LAYER SHOULD START TO COMPLETELY MELT SNOW THAT FALLS
THURSDAY EVENING...SO THE GROUND TEMPERATURE WILL BE LEFT TO
DETERMINE WHETHER PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE A BIT HIGHER TODAY TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST OF
FREEZING RAIN LOOKING AT MODELS SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM WHICH ALL SHOW RAIN FALLING INTO
SURFACE AIR THAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS CLOSER TO INTERSTATES 12 AND 59 SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ONLY RAIN
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF AMOUNTS OF
AT LEAST .25 INCH WITH SOME RUNS SHOWING IN EXCESS OVER .50 INCH.
IF THE FAR INLAND AREAS SEE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN...THIS COULD END
UP BEING A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM. IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT THAT MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT/
WEDNESDAY.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

PT, what is Lake Charles NWS telling ya'll in their afternoon discussion? They are usually better detailed in their discussions than our BTR office is over extreme weather events. What is your latest forecast looking like?

[BigB0882]

Can anyone explain the differences between the one map from the NAM that shows snow over Baton Rouge (5 inches, even) and then another with NAM on it that shows absolutely nothing East of Lafayette? I am confused how two maps come from the same model. I will try to find them but one was posted in the SETX/SWLA thread and the other is probably a page back on this thread.

[Kennethb]

While I understand the reasoning in the Slidell NWS discusion, I am still hesitant to bite off on ice just yet. While there have been minor episodes of freezing rain in my time here in Baton Rouge, there was only one event that pararells our forecast and that was January 1973 when we had two nights of light freezing rain, two days of cloudy, temps just above freezing, ending the third day as rain to sleet to snow. We'll have to see how high we get Wednesday and how low we can drop before clouds set in tomorrow night. Perhaps we can keep some CAA tomorrow night as clouds build in and keep our dewpoints low and get some decent evaporative cooling.

[Metalicwx220]

I LOVE HOW OUR TEMPS WENT FROM a high 39 to 47 lol

[JSDS]

I'm starting to feel like Portastorm

I live almost right on top of the EBR /Livingston Parish line just a smidge south of I-12 and we always seem to be just on the (non-frozen) edge of things. However, every forecast has been getting a little better so I haven't given up yet.