Texas Winter 2016-2017

[weatherdude1108]

Got down to 18 here this morning. Coldest in a while!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Still at or just below freezing here south of BR. Another cold night and cool day tomorrow, then back to mild to warm temps for the foreseeable future. Can't wait Only thing it's good for is the winter fishing, which has been really good this year since we have been so warm for the most part.

[Ntxw]

FW acknowledging the late week system. Euro is big cut off solution and GFS is progressive. Arctic high to the north/northeast isn't ideally set up to drive cold air directly into Texas but the big cutoff ULL will draw some in. Panhandle, Oklahoma, and W Texas may see a potpourri of wintry weather. Another system behind it on the Euro with some modified cold air sitting around. Pacific is very active with the extended jet coming into North America and Atlantic ridging slowing them down. Warm overall pattern in term of averages but quick shots of seasonably cold behind them.



This will probably setting up shop for +PNA Nino-esque pattern late in the month once that jet retracts

[Ntxw]

Euro has 4" of rain at DFW, Abilene gets a little over an inch most of that freezing rain and sleet. KAUS is about 3" of rain and a little over an inch for IAH

[gpsnowman]

Euro has 4" of rain at DFW, Abilene gets a little over an inch most of that freezing rain and sleet. KAUS is about 3" of rain and a little over an inch for IAH

Goodness, get some cold air involved and Texas is in business. Unlike this week, moisture doesn't seem to be an issue with the next event. Hard to get the perfect recipe down here. Can't wait to see future runs.

[Brent]

Euro has 4" of rain at DFW, Abilene gets a little over an inch most of that freezing rain and sleet. KAUS is about 3" of rain and a little over an inch for IAH

If only it was cold enough lol

Will be watching for signs of that

[Ntxw]

Goodness, get some cold air involved and Texas is in business. Unlike this week, moisture doesn't seem to be an issue with the next event. Hard to get the perfect recipe down here. Can't wait to see future runs.

Yeah, no matter which solution there will likely be linkage to the tropical Pacific and potential good rain event at the least for Texas

[Golf7070]

Euro has 4" of rain at DFW, Abilene gets a little over an inch most of that freezing rain and sleet. KAUS is about 3" of rain and a little over an inch for IAH

Honesttly, do u think we will have to wait later on for a more realistic shot at some winter weather or will we need to see a dramatic pattern shift to put us in the action?

[gpsnowman]

Goodness, get some cold air involved and Texas is in business. Unlike this week, moisture doesn't seem to be an issue with the next event. Hard to get the perfect recipe down here. Can't wait to see future runs.

Yeah, no matter which solution there will likely be linkage to the tropical Pacific and potential good rain event at the least for Texas

Steve McCauley touches on next week saying thunderstorms precede the cold air. Either way, a win win precip wise for Texas. At least this week will be interesting to watch all this develop. We might be doing it in shorts and t-shirts!!

[vbhoutex]

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Damaging freeze has occurred overnight…another damaging freeze will occur tonight!

Hard Freeze Warning in effect for all counties tonight except Galveston County

Maximum protections to pipes, plants, and pets should be taken.

Coldest low temperatures in at least 3 years and maybe since 2011 have occurred overnight with significant damage likely to sensitive tropical vegetation and citrus. Freeze overnight was significant with locations north and west of FM 1960/HWY falling into the upper 10’s and low to mid 20’s all the way to US 59 for many hours. Even Galveston feel to 31. Advective nature of this freeze with winds of 10-15mph has likely resulted in a lot of damage to area landscaping.

Very cold arctic air mass is in place over the area with many surface temperatures at 1000am still below freezing. College Station has been at or below freezing for 28 straight hours and is still 26 at 1000am. Will warm only into the mid to upper 30’s even with full sun today and once the sun sets the temperatures will plummet. Center of surface arctic high will be centered over our northern counties this evening with dewpoints in the low 10’s or upper 1’s. With clear skies, light winds, and very low dewpoints a widespread hard freeze (below 24 degrees for 2 hours or more) is likely for nearly all of SE TX tonight into Sunday morning.

Forecasted Lows Sunday Morning with Freeze Duration:

N of HWY 105: 13-18 (14-16 hrs)
N of US 59: 18-24 (12-14 hrs)
S of US 59: 25-29 (10-12 hrs)

This will be a destructive freeze, but with light winds protection of sensitive vegetation that was not killed last night will be more effective tonight.

Saturday Morning Lows:

BUSH IAH: 22
Hobby: 25
Galveston: 31
Sugar Land: 20
Crockett: 16
Huntsville: 18
College Station: 18
Cleveland: 21
Conroe: 19
Tomball: 21
Brenham: 20
Victoria: 22
Wharton: 20
Freeport: 25
Angleton: 25
Palacios: 23
Bay City: 22
Pearland: 27
Corpus Christi: 27
Austin: 20
Rockport: 25

Other
Canadian: -8
Muleshoe: -4
Amarillo: 0
Childress: 2
Wichita Falls: 6
Denton: 8
Abilene: 11
Dallas: 14
Waco: 14
Longview: 15
Temple: 16

Definitely have some very sad looking Hibiscus and others that I was not able to cover last night.

[Ntxw]

Euro has 4" of rain at DFW, Abilene gets a little over an inch most of that freezing rain and sleet. KAUS is about 3" of rain and a little over an inch for IAH

Honesttly, do u think we will have to wait later on for a more realistic shot at some winter weather or will we need to see a dramatic pattern shift to put us in the action?

Nothing has changed from previous posts about the upcoming pattern through early Feb. It is overall mild and the Pacific storm train comes onshore. Winter weather is dependent on how much cold each system can drag down and cool the upper atmosphere. There isn't a huge -EPO block showing up until at least the end of the month should it occur. If you follow the EPO and trust it's historical precursor ability, then around the 20th we may see some near record warmth. The savior might be if it rains or/and if the raised heights in eastern Canada morphs into a Hudson Bay block

[TheProfessor]

Goodness, get some cold air involved and Texas is in business. Unlike this week, moisture doesn't seem to be an issue with the next event. Hard to get the perfect recipe down here. Can't wait to see future runs.

Yeah, no matter which solution there will likely be linkage to the tropical Pacific and potential good rain event at the least for Texas

You know it's a wet pattern when I'm looking at 2-3 inches of liquid QPF in Ohio on most model runs. I'm not sure what's the most qpf Ohio has gotten in one/two back to back storms during the winter time, but 2-3 inches certainly seems like a lot.

[hriverajr]

Hard to believe... this upcoming pattern will hold for 30 days

[Brent]

FWD's AFD:

There continues to be significant model discrepancies between the
long range models regarding the late week system. The ECMWF has
been the most consistent with a deeper, slower timing of the upper
level trough, but its timing and track could result in frozen
precipitation across at least the northwestern half of the CWA
Friday into Saturday. The Canadian has started to trend towards
the ECMWF but still is significantly slower with the arrival of
the cold air. The GFS continues to be the fastest with an open
wave trough that ends all precipitation before the cold air
arrives. With the significant differences in the models, will
broad brush low PoPs across region Thursday through Saturday. A
blend of the model temperatures does result in sub-freezing
temperatures in our northwestern counties Friday night into
Saturday when precipitation may still be occurring so introduced
a mention of rain/freezing rain/sleet into the extended portion of
the forecast. However, this system is still nearly a week away, and
we must be diligent in watching the model trends over the next
several days.

[Brent]

GFS is trying around here but wow look at Memphis and Eastern Arkansas!

Edit DFW officially mid 70s Friday and highs around freezing next Saturday

[TexasBreeze]

Didn't have enough model watching?? Time to do it again!

[Portastorm]

GFS is trying around here but wow look at Memphis and Eastern Arkansas!

Edit DFW officially mid 70s Friday and highs around freezing next Saturday

Every time I try to leave, the GFS drags me back.

[Ntxw]

Didn't have enough model watching?? Time to do it again!

It's a thread the needle type thing. Rain before cold, just ask some in the southeast how that worked

[Ntxw]

GFS is trying around here but wow look at Memphis and Eastern Arkansas!

Every time I try to leave, the GFS drags me back.

That map is actually not counting ice/sleet which is most of what it is. Doesn't show much snow for Arkansas or Tenn either

[Brent]

GFS is trying around here but wow look at Memphis and Eastern Arkansas!

Every time I try to leave, the GFS drags me back.

That map is actually not counting ice/sleet which is most of what it is. Doesn't show much snow for Arkansas or Tenn either

yeah this is part of the reason the snowstorm in AL/GA failed too... because flat out it wasn't snow on the GFS lol

But I agree with you on not watching models only to get sucked back in.

Ew if you just look at the ice map on Pivotal Weather... over an inch of ice falls between Memphis and Nashville. I think I will have to pass on that.

and yes the "snow" from DFW to Austin is actually some freezing rain, not snow.