Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

The 12z NAM can’t be trusted, sorry, it’s lagging way too far behind on the plunging shallow air. Wait ‘till tomorrow at least - it may not catch up until Friday, if ever, with this one.

EURO is depicting the same temp trend. So although they could both still end up being wrong, the NAM isn't alone with what it shows.

[hurricane2025]

Gfs is also

[Quixotic]

I’m gonna roll with FWD. they’re right on most of these events.

[snownado]

Gfs is also

It continues to do wonky things aloft, but yes, it also continues the trend of warmer thermals.

[Ntxw]

I would take a chance on this and see if the upper trough take a more southerly direction before getting slung out. Assuming you believe this scenario. GHD 2011 was during a -PNA, so I'd think it won't take as hard a left turn.

[wxman22]

The GFS and ICON both show a heavy snow band on the backside of the storm.GFS below

[Quixotic]

I would take a chance on this and see if the upper trough take a more southerly direction before getting slung out. Assuming you believe this scenario. GHD 2011 was during a -PNA, so I'd think it won't take as hard a left turn.

https://i.postimg.cc/CKL59jJK/GFSloop.gif

https://i.imgur.com/RcCqToJ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/DT8s9U0.png

Looks like a trowel of snow that passes right over DFW on the GFS.

[rwfromkansas]

I would take that and call it a day. At least it's still sleet to snow lol

[snownado]

I would take a chance on this and see if the upper trough take a more southerly direction before getting slung out. Assuming you believe this scenario. GHD 2011 was during a -PNA, so I'd think it won't take as hard a left turn.

https://i.postimg.cc/CKL59jJK/GFSloop.gif

The PNA is projected to at least go neutral though. And while that winter as a whole was dominated by a -PNA, per the CPC archive, it seems the PNA did briefly go neutral to even slightly positive around the time GHD 2011 happened. A neutral PNA in fact is exactly what's ideal for big snowstorms in the Lower Great Lakes (a -PNA favors snowstorms for Minneapolis and the Upper Midwest).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ndex.shtml

BTW, there was a +PNA and -NAO (record-breaking one at the time even) backing during the 2009 Christmas Blizzard and that one still managed to cut due north to dump on Minneapolis. Now granted, the upper levels had a considerably different look for that system (it was an extremely unusual setup), but the point is a -PNA wasn't necessary for it to happen.

[snownado]

Word is the 12z GGEM has also joined the NAM and EURO...

[Iceresistance]

Well, I surely wasn't expecting 27 inches in a single storm near Sallisaw, OK


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkK8M.png

[wxman22]

The ICON and CMC also shows the heavy snow band.

[Brazoria979cnty]

Well, I surely wasn't expecting 27 inches in a single storm near Sallisaw, OK

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkK8M.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkK8M.png

My dad just moved to Gore from Houston. He is freaking out lol

[txtwister78]

Word is the 12z GGEM has also joined the NAM and EURO...

Joined them in what?

[TomballEd]

I assume data from the sampling that the NOAA plane did last night is part of the model guidance.

I don’t think the flight last night actually dropped anything according to prior post in this forum. The first scheduled one is at 19:00 today. It was reported last night that the flight was preposition it for today’s reconnaissance not actually sampling but again that info is from me reading every post in this thread, not outside sources.

Edit: From Cycloneye. viewtopic.php?t=125040&start=3220

I posted a flight in progress graphic from Tropical Tidbits that looks like it departed Hickham AFB and was approaching the area of interest sometime last evening. Maybe it wasn't the tasked mission

EDIT- missed earlier posts. My bad

[snownado]

Word is the 12z GGEM has also joined the NAM and EURO...

Joined them in what?

Warmer and NW trend.

The only real difference is that it doesn't bring out all the energy/moisture in a single compact piece, but the eventual outcome is similar.

[cstrunk]

Dang. The trend is not our friend in north Texas. Little if any snow, possibly more cold rain transitioning to some freezing rain and sleet. But if this warming trend on the models doesn't slow down we may just end up with cold rain. Not a bad thing from a safety/infrastructure standpoint, obviously, and we need the rain. But sad from a weather weenie standpoint!

Still plenty of time for things to change. Famous words, "we should know more by tomorrow."

[TomballEd]

Dang. The trend is not our friend in north Texas. Little if any snow, possibly more cold rain transitioning to some freezing rain and sleet. But if this warming trend on the models doesn't slow down we may just end up with cold rain. Not a bad thing from a safety/infrastructure standpoint, obviously, and we need the rain. But sad from a weather weenie standpoint!

Still plenty of time for things to change. Famous words, "we should know more by tomorrow."

More sleet and less freezing rain is a good thing.

[Iceresistance]

Word is the 12z GGEM has also joined the NAM and EURO...

Joined them in what?

Warmer and NW trend.

The only real difference is that it doesn't bring out all the energy/moisture in a single compact piece, but the eventual outcome is similar.

I'm convinced the models just hit the mid-range shenanigans area, it has happened every time with all our storms, even February 2021 did that

[Wthrfan]

I want to see a really good snow, but not 12-14 inches! I would gladly give those of you in the DFW area or Austin half our total!