Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[bella_may]

I wouldn't be surprised to see school closings thursday or friday with this ice. The euro is about to come out! Good luck!

[BigB0882]

I expect school closing on Friday. This is for EBR and WBR. I remember last year they canceled on a day when there was a slim chance of ice overnight. It was going to possibly rain and then after dip below freezing. I was shocked they closed. I think that was just WBR and they tend to close because a lot of their employees have to come across the bridge. My boyfriend works at a school in WBR so he has been happy with my reports.

[PTrackerLA]

Here's my pinpoint forecast for Lafayette. 3 nights of wintry precipitation mentioned, quite amazing. Pretty confident we will be seeing some sort of wintry precipitation. I just hope its more sleet/snow than freezing rain. If all this isn't enough for you the GFS is showing a low in the low 20's next Tuesday, high in the 30s and a chance of more frozen precip! What a winter!

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening...then cloudy with a slight chance of light freezing rain after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy. A chance of light freezing rain in the morning... Then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Lowest wind chill readings 13 to 23 in the morning.

Thursday Night...A chance of rain in the evening...then light freezing rain likely after midnight. Lows around 30. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Friday...Sleet likely in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s.

[Ivanhater]

A quick note on next weeks arctic invasion...GFS lining up with Euro showing one hell of an arctic blast coming for the Deep South

[Dean4Storms]

A quick note on next weeks arctic invasion...GFS lining up with Euro showing one hell of an arctic blast coming for the Deep South

It is definitely showing some post frontal snow before precip ends! WOW!

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Dean..surprisingly NWS Mobile/Pensacola already mentioning it in today's discussion

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK FOR MOS
TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...THOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHEN A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA...THEN ENDS AS IT PUSHES A FRONT OVER THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS ADVERTISING THIS ENDING AS
SNOW...BUT THIS FAR OUT...A LOT CAN CHANGE.

[Dean4Storms]

If that air is that cold it would likely do so as the extreme temps wring out any moisture. I'm amazed at both GFS and EURO showing basically the same severity of cold. Looks like the real deal!!

[northjaxpro]

Ivan, I have been closely watching the long range model runs for next week as well. The potential for another major arctic outbreak looms big for next week. I agree that the GFS is now beginning to get onboard with the EURO with the next surge of arctic air plunging deep into the Eastern CONUS. We could be back in the Deep Freeze in my neck of the woods once again.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan, I have been closely watching the long range model runs for next week as well. The potential for another major arctic outbreak looms big for next week. I agree that the GFS is now beginning to get onboard with the EURO with the next surge of arctic air plunging deep into the Eastern CONUS. We could be back in the Deep Freeze in my neck of the woods once again.

This winter has me crying uncle. However, with the forecast of another active hurricane season coming up, I guess cold weather is not the worst

[northjaxpro]

Ivan, I have been closely watching the long range model runs for next week as well. The potential for another major arctic outbreak looms big for next week. I agree that the GFS is now beginning to get onboard with the EURO with the next surge of arctic air plunging deep into the Eastern CONUS. We could be back in the Deep Freeze in my neck of the woods once again.

This winter has me crying uncle. However, with the forecast of another active hurricane season coming up, I guess cold weather is not the worst

Yeah, I love monitoring both extremes Ivan. But, no question, this winter has just absolutely been an extremely cold one for sure. It caught many of us off guard. Thanks a lot -AO and -NAO for this unexpected extreme in a supposed La Nina this season.

[MississippiWx]

^^^ Of course the -NAO would go positive when we have a chance at winter precip. Without the +NAO induced subtropical ridge just east of Florida, the cold air that's in TX and points north would easily make it here and cause a large snow event along the Gulf Coast. Sigh...

Yes, we are going to have *some* cold air around, but I'm afraid it's not going to be adequate enough for places east of I-55.

[cycloneye]

Speaking of the positive NAO,it looks like it will stay that way at least for the next couple of weeks.

[bella_may]

The nws in new orleans has put the chance for freezing rain/sleet in the forecast for the mississippi coast

[MississippiWx]

Speaking of the positive NAO,it looks like it will stay that way at least for the next couple of weeks.

If it stays that way, I'm not so sure we'll get that major Arctic blast next week. With a subtropical ridge over the SE, Arctic blasts don't come through very easily. Look no further than this week as an example. Of course, the ridge does break down at times, and with such a strong cold airmass forecast for next week, it could easily push the ridge out of the way for a few days.

[Raebie]

From your lips to god's ears. It was 71 here over the weekend. I am so over winter. Give it to Brent.

[Metalicwx220]

A quick note on next weeks arctic invasion...GFS lining up with Euro showing one hell of an arctic blast coming for the Deep South

It is definitely showing some post frontal snow before precip ends! WOW!

This has snow in my area . Saving it then when this day comes see how it verified.

[tugreenie]

Is it just me, or does it look like some moisture is lagging or trying to develop around Brownsville?

[MississippiWx]

0z NAM coming in right now and so far it is drier/warmer.

[Stormcenter]

You knew it would happen. They (models) go back and forth.

0z NAM coming in right now and so far it is drier/warmer.

[MississippiWx]

Hours 42 to 48 have gone back toward what the 18z NAM was showing and possibly a little colder. Still a lot to be seen, though.

Edit: Through 51 hours...