TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[AggieSpirit]

I am not too impressed with this "major ice storm".

We have a very light glazing and that is it. The biggest thing was the nearly 4 inches of rain..... which we needed badly.

[ajurcat]

I just came back home to finish some preps b-4 the storm. This is one of the last posts I read from the NWS earlier: "12Z RUNS IN SO FAR STILL HAVE THE FRONT
MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY WITH IAH WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S ON
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN! "

Crazy stuff. I see they have already backpeddeled from that! It's now 69F here in The Woodlands and I'm NW of the airport....

In other news, baby Caleb is doing well. Utterly amazingly, he was extubated today (breathing tube taken out). Almost unheard of for a 26-week preemie after only ~36hours from birth. He's doing extremely well. Prayers do work and miracles do happen. More later......

Give our love to baby Caleb! You & Mom, take care, relax if you can and just give Caleb all the hugs & kisses. Our pediatrician said a newborn can never be spoiled because of being held. Hold him, love him and enjoy him!

[Stratosphere747]

NWS Houston has really stepped up in their discos the last few days. Latest one is about the best.

How about the so called busts on the highs today as well, crazy weather indeed..

http://www.srh.weather.gov/productview. ... =HGXAFDHGX

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the front may have hit the peak of it's inland progression and may now be slowly sliding back toward the coast. Over the last few minutes I have watched some of the personal weather stations on the western side of Houston warm, and then just now start to slowly cool again with dropping dewpoints. It will take a little while longer before I can tell if this is really the case, but at the moment it is interesting none the less...

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps ... &wmo=99999

[gboudx]

My hometown might've been lucky all day today as temperatures were barely hovering over the freezing line, but it was best that we didn't chance it.

Same here. Compared to what was being discussed Friday with the Ice Storm, we lucked out. The only ice outside is from my ice tray that I emptied due to a funky odor.

jschlitz, that's great news man!

[aggiecutter]

I agree with AggieSpirit. I think the story of this system in Texas will be the rainfall amounts, not the ice. I've received over 5 inches of rain in the past 36 hours.

[Yankeegirl]

I just saw this,..

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
635 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-151245-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
635 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX UNTIL 4 PM...
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TX BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM MEXICO
SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ANY TRAINING HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. SEE THE ALREADY ISSUED FLOOD WATCH
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
ALREADY BEEN POSTED. THE THREAT EXPANDS SOUTHWARD AND COVERS
ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LEADING TO ALL THE HAZARDS THAT GO ALONG WITH IT. THE
WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AND POSSIBLY BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS IF AND WHEN THE THREAT BECOMES IMMINENT. SEE
THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR DETAILS ON HOW THIS IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

[Portastorm]

I agree with AggieSpirit. I think the story of this system in Texas will be the rainfall amounts, not the ice. I've received over 5 inches of rain in the past 36 hours.

So far that has been the big story here (Austin) as well. Yesterday we had between 4-5 inches of rain in the metro area with significant flash flooding. Our ground is saturated.

[TexasStooge]

I agree with AggieSpirit. I think the story of this system in Texas will be the rainfall amounts, not the ice. I've received over 5 inches of rain in the past 36 hours.

So far that has been the big story here (Austin) as well. Yesterday we had between 4-5 inches of rain in the metro area with significant flash flooding. Our ground is saturated.

Who cares about the ice, I'm just happy that there's larger rainfall amounts in DFW.

[JenBayles]

So, are we, or are we NOT now expecting the cold air to get here tonite? <confused!> After reading that last HGX discussion, I don't think anyone knows what the heck to think or pubicize at this time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS continues to show the cold air making it here sometime early tomorrow:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml
^^Mon. 12pm^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _030.shtml
^^Mon. 6pm^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml
^^Tues. 6am^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml
^^Tues. 12pm^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _054.shtml
^^Tues. 6pm^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml
^^Wed. 12am^^

If this run is correct, then it still looks like quite an ice storm is in the making.

[double D]

EWG, it's also faster and colder than the 18z NAM too. I think this is been one of the most complex weather situations to forecast in a long time.

Does anybody know where the drier, cold air lies now?

[Extremeweatherguy]

My winds just switched back around to the north (lightly) here in western Spring. Looks like the front has once again drifted past me to my SE.

[teal61]

Hey EWG what part of Spring are you in ? My winds have come back around to the NW and the temp seems to be slowly falling again in Windrose.

My PWS:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXSPRIN14

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, just watched Bastardi's videos and he thinks south Texas is in for some ice. He really didn't say how much, though. In the grand scheme of things, the pattern for the next month is very favorable for snow and ice in the southern plains. It's just a matter of time before the northern and southern jets phase, and we get a major winter storm.

[gboudx]

My winds just switched back around to the north (lightly) here in western Spring. Looks like the front has once again drifted past me to my SE.

Sounds like the front is waffling around like what the freezing line is doing up here. We've been between 32-34 all day.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, just watched Bastardi's videos and he thinks south Texas is in for some ice. He really didn't say how much, though. In the grand scheme of things, the pattern for the next month is very favorable for snow and ice in the southern plains. It's just a matter of time before the northern and southern jets phase, and we get a major winter storm.

Didn't realize he had cut videos today (on a Sunday, no less!). Yeah, he's been talking about a south Texas event for 2 days now.

You'd think with the ensembles looking as cold as they do and an active southern jet that something would happen sooner or later.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

the temp has dropped a degree in the past 30 mins and the wind has picked up from the northwest maybe up to 10 mph, a bit of drizzle, northside of tomball near beckendorf intermediate
plus the humidity level has dropped maybe be aiding the temp drop too

[Portastorm]

EWG, it's also faster and colder than the 18z NAM too. I think this is been one of the most complex weather situations to forecast in a long time.

Does anybody know where the drier, cold air lies now?

The wind speeds have picked up in the Texas panhandle and throughout most of central and west Oklahoma. That is one of the parameters that AFM and Wxman57 have outlined as ways to see this "surge" of colder air. Judging from observation maps, that's the best I can tell.

[Tamora]

....

In other news, baby Caleb is doing well. Utterly amazingly, he was extubated today (breathing tube taken out). Almost unheard of for a 26-week preemie after only ~36hours from birth. He's doing extremely well. Prayers do work and miracles do happen. More later......

That is amazing!!!!!!!!!! I hope he contines to do well! My sis is a NICU nurse and I hear about all of her "babies". I wish you all well! How much did he weigh? My friend had 24 week triplets that were all in the 1.4 range that are now healthy 7 yr olds.