Texas Winter 2023-2024

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Irritates me when Texas floods continuously from these events. They are apart of our climate for a long time. We have events where we get 5" in a day or whatever it is, but somehow still make no changes to prevent it from happening again.

Also, my annual ski trip to Crested Butte is this weekend into next week, which means a heatwave for the mountain region!
After that, it looks like the pattern will shift a -PNA situation.

[Cpv17]

That’s quite an interesting setup on the 0z Euro at days 9 and 10.

More heavy rain??

Sure looks like it.

[Cpv17]

That’s quite an interesting setup on the 0z Euro at days 9 and 10.

More heavy rain??

I read Larry Cosgrove’s latest about a colder February. And an active storm pattern. But no mention of severe Arctic cold. Just colder which is vague

Well we don’t want extreme cold anyway. That will just suppress everything and not have much moisture to work with.

[cajungal]

More heavy rain??

I read Larry Cosgrove’s latest about a colder February. And an active storm pattern. But no mention of severe Arctic cold. Just colder which is vague

Well we don’t want extreme cold anyway. That will just suppress everything and not have much moisture to work with.

I know. Just was commenting on his what is blog said is all. I would rather low 30’s and no 20’s. And plenty of moisture. And wish I could have another Dec 2017. That way I don’t have to get out my warm bed and in my pjs to go outside at 3 a.m.

[Fifty Rock]

Just thinking out loud, I don't post much, but I always scratch my head when people bring up climate change and their concerns about the changes needed, but those same people fly across the country to meetings or to go on vacations or maybe even drive to their favorite vacation spots, to and from work every day. Some people believe it and some don't, no matter what the evidence shows or doesn't show, but if you're going to preach it you should be living it or just stay home, let the grass grow and play board games. This is just an opinion and not a condemnation of anyone, as I will always enjoy my vacations..

[Lagreeneyes03]

That’s quite an interesting setup on the 0z Euro at days 9 and 10.

More heavy rain??

I read Larry Cosgrove’s latest about a colder February. And an active storm pattern. But no mention of severe Arctic cold. Just colder which is vague

Previously he had mentioned not severe cold but arctic air, which in turn would bring back good chances of winter precip in the South. This time he was definitely more vague on temps.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Irritates me when Texas floods continuously from these events. They are apart of our climate for a long time. We have events where we get 5" in a day or whatever it is, but somehow still make no changes to prevent it from happening again.

Also, my annual ski trip to Crested Butte is this weekend into next week, which means a heatwave for the mountain region!
After that, it looks like the pattern will shift a -PNA situation.

There’s a difference between the climate changing and developers building cookie cutter subdivisions and strip malls in areas that shouldn’t be developed.

Also, blame our govt. I see a lot of governmental waste in my line of work, but nothing like what started in 2010 with HUD and Section 8 housing. They are building 300k homes for people who could never come close to affording it and they are doing it in flood plains.

I’m not sure how anyone with a functioning brain could look at the Federal Govt and the 4th branch (unelected bureaucrats) and say they do anything well or beneficial for the middle class, of which, most of us here are apart of.

Rant over.

[Brent]

Well our TV met only promised no arctic air for the next 10 days

Personally I'm good... If we're gonna have more winter I'd much rather have upper 20s than single digits and no more freezing rain

[Stratton23]

I think we will see some arctic intrusions after the 10th of february or so, the pattern is going to be slow to transition, but I do like the blocking showing up in guidance, getting a -NAO signature to redevelop and slow everything down, AO shouls be going negative as well

[orangeblood]

Our PV friend showing signs of heading south, back to our part of the world towards the end of week 2...

[iorange55]

Just thinking out loud, I don't post much, but I always scratch my head when people bring up climate change and their concerns about the changes needed, but those same people fly across the country to meetings or to go on vacations or maybe even drive to their favorite vacation spots, to and from work every day. Some people believe it and some don't, no matter what the evidence shows or doesn't show, but if you're going to preach it you should be living it or just stay home, let the grass grow and play board games. This is just an opinion and not a condemnation of anyone, as I will always enjoy my vacations..

Corporations, factory farming... they all do a great job of putting so much misinformation out there that we all start to blame each other for things that we as individuals have little control over. I could never leave my house again and that would have no impact on anything. We could let thousands of paper straws disintegrate in our mouths, and that wouldn't have any impact. We can recycle our butts off. None of that matters if larger change fails to happen. As long as society continues to run the exact same way, it doesn't matter how many vacations you or I take.

It's silly to expect someone who actually cares about climate change to never take a vacation again when most people can't even give up meat for a single day out of the week.

[Stratton23]

Orangeblood I thought the PV was expected to strengthen? Maybe im wrong though

[bubba hotep]

Some cold risk showing back up in the ensembles as early as Feb 5-7. Then, the EPS and Weeklies look to support a -AO/NAO pattern through the remainder of the month. Also, the Southern Plains looks to be more active than in January, so there should be some better systems to try and take advantage of the cold air. As always, timing will be everything

EPS is starting to peak my interest around Feb 7/9. Let's start to see some run-to-run consistency.

[Ntxw]

Orangeblood I thought the PV was expected to strengthen? Maybe im wrong though

The upper strat PV is restrengthening but the troposphere (lower part of the vortex) or TPV is very much disturbed, likely from the warming mid month working its way down. That's the piece that effects our everyday weather.

You have to look at the PV as one giant atmospheric tornado. To get a perfect PV all parts of it must be strong and uniform, any part that isn't aligned messes up the column and you get a weakened tornado.

[CaptinCrunch]

Don't worry about Winter or Snow right now. We have at least 14 days to get through before we can get back to model watching and Winter weather. I wouldn't be surprised if middle February into early March is cold and stormy.

[Stratton23]

Overnight Euro weeklies lock in a colder pattern starting the first week of february and continuing all the way into mid march

[Gotwood]

Well that last cold spell gave me a dusting of snow and a $451 electric bill. Don’t think the benefits outweighed the costs.

[Itryatgolf]

Not every time but sometimes patterns can repeat theirselves. Depends on the set up.

[Itryatgolf]

Well that last cold spell gave me a dusting of snow and a $451 electric bill. Don’t think the benefits outweighed the costs.

I've been on the bandwagon about if we see snow/ice, hopefully it will warmer than this last blast but cold enough for winter

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Irritates me when Texas floods continuously from these events. They are apart of our climate for a long time. We have events where we get 5" in a day or whatever it is, but somehow still make no changes to prevent it from happening again.

Also, my annual ski trip to Crested Butte is this weekend into next week, which means a heatwave for the mountain region!
After that, it looks like the pattern will shift a -PNA situation.

There’s a difference between the climate changing and developers building cookie cutter subdivisions and strip malls in areas that shouldn’t be developed.

Also, blame our govt. I see a lot of governmental waste in my line of work, but nothing like what started in 2010 with HUD and Section 8 housing. They are building 300k homes for people who could never come close to affording it and they are doing it in flood plains.

I’m not sure how anyone with a functioning brain could look at the Federal Govt and the 4th branch (unelected bureaucrats) and say they do anything well or beneficial for the middle class, of which, most of us here are apart of.

Rant over.

My comment wasnt about the climate changing. These types of storms just happen in Central and SE TX. Nothing to do with climate change, it's just a part of the weather down there. Basically happens every year in some form or fashion but nothing is done. Harvey, which I understand is a generational storm, but hardly anything was done at all. Time to get creative on finding ways to prevent these flooding events from occurring when we have these downpours.