Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

Damn climate change messing up our climo.

[orangeblood]

That low intensification looks a bit bizzare to me. The only positive model in the latest set of runs is the GEFS ensembles which shows retrograding of the 500 mb trough in the means. Hasn't this "problem" been happening extensively over the past 2-4 years with coldest air being shunted to the east in the heart of the winter? We will see but if that east based cold pattern comes to fruition will take at least 7-14 days for a pattern shift which may take us well into Feb.

Yes, speculation it is a result of Hadley Cell expansion caused by warming Pacific and a reduction in sea ice. It's been a stubborn pattern to break ever since the Super Nino, but there have been a few cold snaps for Texas. However, sustained cold stretches have been hard to come by in winter here recently.

I'm never listening to a winter forecast again This is pathetic

Well unless it forecasts warmth that is

We’re 2 days into the 2nd half of winter...not sure it’s prudent to judge a winter forecast at halftime, give it time to play out!

[dhweather]

If the models are overestimating our dry slot behind the front, which is possible, we could be in store for something, maybe a dusting.

Never underestimate the ability of North Texas to get the dry slot no matter what the models say.

[hriverajr]

Yes, speculation it is a result of Hadley Cell expansion caused by warming Pacific and a reduction in sea ice. It's been a stubborn pattern to break ever since the Super Nino, but there have been a few cold snaps for Texas. However, sustained cold stretches have been hard to come by in winter here recently.

I'm never listening to a winter forecast again This is pathetic

Well unless it forecasts warmth that is

We’re 2 days into the 2nd half of winter...not sure it’s prudent to judge a winter forecast at halftime, give it time to play out!

Nope.. and hopefully some things change within the next week.. but we will start running out of time especially where I live.

[Brent]

Yes, speculation it is a result of Hadley Cell expansion caused by warming Pacific and a reduction in sea ice. It's been a stubborn pattern to break ever since the Super Nino, but there have been a few cold snaps for Texas. However, sustained cold stretches have been hard to come by in winter here recently.

I'm never listening to a winter forecast again This is pathetic

Well unless it forecasts warmth that is

We’re 2 days into the 2nd half of winter...not sure it’s prudent to judge a winter forecast at halftime, give it time to play out!

maybe true but everything keeps getting pushed back... the arctic air this weekend has moderated into nothing impressive etc. I know our best snow climo is approaching but are we ever gonna change our luck? If February doesn't produce then its basically spring

Like the weekend front was supposed to be the beginning and now it's not even colder than November was and we go right back to seasonal???

[rwfromkansas]

I am just stunned that the football has been taken away again. I really thought after universal model agreement just what, a week ago at this point, that a real pattern change was coming.

Goes to show you can't trust anything until a day before maybe if that.

I hope I'm wrong, but this is likely going down as the busted winter of all busts. Folks say it's barely January. Well, once March hits, that's normally getting to be spring. I note nobody is talking about how this was just supposed to be the first one and it will be colder later now.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

We’re 2 days into the 2nd half of winter...not sure it’s prudent to judge a winter forecast at halftime, give it time to play out!

Or you could look at it this way...it's the 1st possession of the 2nd half, we are being shut out, our offense hasn't crossed the 50 yard-line yet, and we just called the punt team onto the field for 4th down. And we don't have Michael Dickson any more.

[Ntxw]

I don't think it is fair for those to just say busted winter blah blah. Most of you don't post or come to this board to read that it is going to be a warm winter, every year. This thread would ceast to exist. Hard truth, but most winters are going to be warm these days. We look for the maybes.

No one is to blame, mother nature does what she does regardless of forecasts or models.

[orangeblood]

We’re 2 days into the 2nd half of winter...not sure it’s prudent to judge a winter forecast at halftime, give it time to play out!

Or you could look at it this way...it's the 1st possession of the 2nd half, we are being shut out, our offense hasn't crossed the 50 yard-line yet, and we just called the punt team onto the field for 4th down. And we don't have Michael Dickson any more.

Haha well Vegas says we’re a 2nd half team and have been for years...wouldn’t bet against them, particularly this year (we finally have a Stud QB )

[spencer817]

Coldest air relative to average on the euro weeklies is centered over the great lakes, well north and east of us. Think I'm in the process of closing the book on this winter. Time to bring on the severe weather, at least we can somewhat rely on that climotogically.

[South Texas Storms]

I don't think it is fair for those to just say busted winter blah blah. Most of you don't post or come to this board to read that it is going to be a warm winter, every year. This thread would ceast to exist. Hard truth, but most winters are going to be warm these days. We look for the maybes.

No one is to blame, mother nature does what she does regardless of forecasts or models.

Exactly! The mood of the forum has been very negative this year, and most of the posts are just complaints about no cold or snow. The fact is those events are quite rare, and we shouldn't expect them. Just appreciate it when it happens. As Joe Bastardi says, enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am just stunned that the football has been taken away again. I really thought after universal model agreement just what, a week ago at this point, that a real pattern change was coming.

Goes to show you can't trust anything until a day before maybe if that.

I hope I'm wrong, but this is likely going down as the busted winter of all busts. Folks say it's barely January. Well, once March hits, that's normally getting to be spring. I note nobody is talking about how this was just supposed to be the first one and it will be colder later now.

You can take solace in the fact that in the last 10 years almost all of our snowfall came in Feb or March. January is one of our driest months on average. 14/15 being the best example (nothing then one right after another in late Feb into early March). All it takes is one storm to make this a winter to remember. I know we were hoping for 3 months of snow but that is not realist no matter how great the data was leading up to this winter.

[spencer817]

I don't think it is fair for those to just say busted winter blah blah. Most of you don't post or come to this board to read that it is going to be a warm winter, every year. This thread would ceast to exist. Hard truth, but most winters are going to be warm these days. We look for the maybes.

No one is to blame, mother nature does what she does regardless of forecasts or models.

Exactly! The mood of the forum has been very negative this year, and most of the posts are just complaints about no cold or snow. The fact is those events are quite rare, and we shouldn't expect them. Just appreciate it when it happens. As Joe Bastardi says, enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

I understand that aspect of it, but most of us in DFW have never seen this type of extensive snow drought before. I would tend to think that people know we can't always win every year up here, but it's gotten kind of ridiculous at this point. Combine that with the fact that severe weather seems to have shifted east of the plains, and it's been frustrating for us to say the least. We just hope it changes back soon.

[Ntxw]

I don't think it is fair for those to just say busted winter blah blah. Most of you don't post or come to this board to read that it is going to be a warm winter, every year. This thread would ceast to exist. Hard truth, but most winters are going to be warm these days. We look for the maybes.

No one is to blame, mother nature does what she does regardless of forecasts or models.

Exactly! The mood of the forum has been very negative this year, and most of the posts are just complaints about no cold or snow. The fact is those events are quite rare, and we shouldn't expect them. Just appreciate it when it happens. As Joe Bastardi says, enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

I understand that aspect of it, but most of us in DFW have never seen this type of extensive snow drought before. I would tend to think that people know we can't always win every year up here, but it's gotten kind of ridiculous at this point. Combine that with the fact that severe weather seems to have shifted east of the plains, and it's been frustrating for us to say the least. We just hope it changes back soon.

Yes we are in a snow drought but all the complaining about it doesn't make it magically happen. If it doesn't happen just got to move on to the next chance and hope for the best.

[Cerlin]

It’s tough for me because I’ve never been able to track a winter storm that’s affected me and I tend to get pretty pessimistic because this just keeps happening. It seems like everyone else gets to reap the rewards and it’s profound.

[Cerlin]

On a more positive note, this is supposed to be the penultimate warmup day for us and I’m currently outside and it feels nice and brisk. I can complain about snow but thank god it isn’t torched all winter and even in our warmups we have evenings like this.

[hriverajr]

I don't think it is fair for those to just say busted winter blah blah. Most of you don't post or come to this board to read that it is going to be a warm winter, every year. This thread would ceast to exist. Hard truth, but most winters are going to be warm these days. We look for the maybes.

No one is to blame, mother nature does what she does regardless of forecasts or models.

Well you can't blame peeps for being disappointed.. hard to get winter here with a lack of cold air in western Canada. You must admit it has been a problem the past 3-4 years in general. No one is to blame of course. Of Course we always hope.

[Brent]

I don't think it is fair for those to just say busted winter blah blah. Most of you don't post or come to this board to read that it is going to be a warm winter, every year. This thread would ceast to exist. Hard truth, but most winters are going to be warm these days. We look for the maybes.

No one is to blame, mother nature does what she does regardless of forecasts or models.

Exactly! The mood of the forum has been very negative this year, and most of the posts are just complaints about no cold or snow. The fact is those events are quite rare, and we shouldn't expect them. Just appreciate it when it happens. As Joe Bastardi says, enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

I understand that aspect of it, but most of us in DFW have never seen this type of extensive snow drought before. I would tend to think that people know we can't always win every year up here, but it's gotten kind of ridiculous at this point. Combine that with the fact that severe weather seems to have shifted east of the plains, and it's been frustrating for us to say the least. We just hope it changes back soon.

see that's what bothers me too, everyone said this winter was gonna be different and this was our year and yet all we've had is system after system not verify. Honestly it wouldn't hurt so much except we watched everyone else get snow last year, that's when it went to another level for me. I didn't really care about the DFW snowless streak until so many other places to our south and SE got snow and now its just annoying

It's not over yet but spring gets closer everyday

but I will admit today's been nice, if it's not gonna snow might as well be like this.

[rwfromkansas]

One good thing is that it hasn’t been 80 or something really warm. I think we just expected more with all the anticipation all winter and last year having tons of cold.

[Ntxw]

I don't think it is fair for those to just say busted winter blah blah. Most of you don't post or come to this board to read that it is going to be a warm winter, every year. This thread would ceast to exist. Hard truth, but most winters are going to be warm these days. We look for the maybes.

No one is to blame, mother nature does what she does regardless of forecasts or models.

Well you can't blame peeps for being disappointed.. hard to get winter here with a lack of cold air in western Canada. You must admit it has been a problem the past 3-4 years in general. No one is to blame of course. Of Course we always hope.

It's been all or nothing the past 3 years. Too much cold, too little cold, too dry, or too wet. To me that sounds like a whole lot of excuses because it covers just about everything.

Which shows it has to line up right and rare.