Texas Winter 2010-2011

[vbhoutex]

I'm now extremely confident that I don't know exactly what will happen next week.

Ok, I am now extremely worried about the weather for next week!! Getting mega-disaster kit together immediately!!

[CaptinCrunch]

If the arctic high is as strong as models predict it is, then they will have a hard time with the TRUE timing of it getting here. Arctic air at the surface is usally 6+ hrs ahead of the model runs, or it never happens at all...LOL

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can anybody else not log into S2K through their desktop browser? I have to log in through my phone

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport...some snow Wednesday, just a tad though...

...A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY TROUGH
SWINGS OUT OF THE PACIFIC...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND INTO
THE FOUR SATE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
UPPER-LOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE BRIEF WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION...IF ANY.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION

[Portastorm]

STORM2K NEWS UPDATE
------------------------
Storm 2K News is reporting that the Portastorm Weather Center WILL NOT have a morning briefing. The PWC director is reportedly in discussions with other meteorologists regarding next week's potential winter storm. The brief announcement this morning was followed by a comment from the director that "I think some of us indulged too much in the 'vodka cold' concept thanks to free promotional materials from Grey Goose (burp)."

More details as they become available.

[natlib]

San Angelo NWS discussion starting to sound exciting!!

The forecast area will come under a southwest flow aloft at the
beginning of the coming week ahead of a developing upper level
low over the southwest. If this system develops as now agreed
upon by the GFS and European model (ecmwf)...may see significant wintry precipitation
overnight Monday and into Tuesday with the European model (ecmwf) being the wetter
of the two solutions. GFS forecast soundings are indicating wintry
precipitation over at least the Big Country with borderline conditions
over the Concho Valley. For this forecast issuance...will keep
liquid precipitation generally south of Interstate 20 with a mix in the
southern Big Country and snow over the northern Big Country...all
subject to refinement with later model runs of course.


Temperature wise...should see teens and 20s over most of the area
Wednesday and Thursday mornings with highs warming only into the
40s on Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

If the arctic high is as strong as models predict it is, then they will have a hard time with the TRUE timing of it getting here. Arctic air at the surface is usally 6+ hrs ahead of the model runs, or it never happens at all...LOL

You bring up an interesting point and NWS Lubbock discussed this issue regarding timing and strength of the air mass as well as what affect a faster arrival solution may have regarding p types and duration in their morning AFD...

THEREAFTER LIGHT QPF VALUES PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR
NE ZONES...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EJECTS ANOTHER ALTHOUGH STRONGER FROPA ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED
COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AS WELL. HENCE BETTER
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND THE 850 MB 0 DEGREE ISOTHERM DISPLACED ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REFLECTS INITIALLY LIQUID PRECIP ACROSS THE NE
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER CONCURRENTLY...A PACIFIC
UA LOW WILL DIG ESE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO ALSO BY MONDAY EVENING. THUS THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH AND COLDER AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL
ALLOW PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...AND -SN TO ALL OF CWA LATER TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE UA LOW
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT
WINTRY PRECIP AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING /WITH TUESDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY/...WITH A NOTICEABLE DECLINE IN PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.
[i]FURTHERMORE...THE GFS SOLUTION ALSO DISPLAYED THE SAID UA TO TO
BECOME ELONGATED AND STRETCH FROM THE NE CONUS TO NEAR THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA. THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION IS VIA THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHERE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IS THE FROPA ON SUNDAY BEING A BIT
STRONGER /AND THUS TEMPS WOULD BE COOLER/ IN ADDITION TO LACK OF
ANY NEGLIGIBLE PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...THE
STRONGER SECONDARY PUSH IS NOTICEABLE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON /A
BIT EARLIER THAN THE GFS/ WITH WINTRY PRECIP ONSET EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALL OTHER SYNOPTIC ENTITIES ARE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS
THE GFS. THUS...HAVE OPTED TO BEGIN THE ONSET OF PRECIP MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ATTM...AS NOT QUITE SOLD ON THE COMPLETE
LACK OF PRECIP EARLY ON. BEYOND...POPS REMAIN SILENT AS ANALYZING
FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY IS HIGHLY DESIRED.

[cperez1594]

Brownsville NWS is getting ready. They mentioned on the news last night that temps might have to get lower for our area. Hmmm do we have a chance for precip one local met said that we have at least a 20% chance.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/bro/graphicast/image5.gif

[Tireman4]

STORM2K NEWS UPDATE
------------------------
Storm 2K News is reporting that the Portastorm Weather Center WILL NOT have a morning briefing. The PWC director is reportedly in discussions with other meteorologists regarding next week's potential winter storm. The brief announcement this morning was followed by a comment from the director that "I think some of us indulged too much in the 'vodka cold' concept thanks to free promotional materials from Grey Goose (burp)."

More details as they become available.

The started getting 'likkered" up after they saw Wxman57's comment.

[gboudx]

I'm really glad that we got our tickets to the NFL Experience for this Sunday, and not one day next week. Looks like metroplex driving could be on the slippery side.

[Portastorm]

STORM2K NEWS UPDATE
------------------------
Storm 2K News is reporting that the Portastorm Weather Center WILL NOT have a morning briefing. The PWC director is reportedly in discussions with other meteorologists regarding next week's potential winter storm. The brief announcement this morning was followed by a comment from the director that "I think some of us indulged too much in the 'vodka cold' concept thanks to free promotional materials from Grey Goose (burp)."

More details as they become available.

The started getting 'likkered" up after they saw Wxman57's comment.

I can honestly say that in being on this board/forum for almost eight years now, I cannot recall Wxman57 posting such a message. It should give everyone on here some pause.

[WacoWx]

like these?

[gboudx]

I can honestly say that in being on this board/forum for almost eight years now, I cannot recall Wxman57 posting such a message. It should give everyone on here some pause.

Same here. I always look for 57 to add a dose of reality to all the hyped-up talk of snow and cold that surfaces on this board every winter. He's usually the voice of reason, and along with Air Force Met and jeff, someone who's opinion I gave a lot of credit to. Where is AFM? New job preventing him from joining like Ortt?

[Tireman4]

I can honestly say that in being on this board/forum for almost eight years now, I cannot recall Wxman57 posting such a message. It should give everyone on here some pause.[/quote]


I agree. He has been having a pause on this system since last week. That gives me an huge pause. The PWC is trying to keep from going into panic mode. Stay sober over there....LOL

[srainhoutx]

After consulting with wxman57, we have decided to take a trip to Tahiti on Sunday along with a few special guests (at their own expense, of course) and leave all this cold behind for warmer/sunny weather, lounging on the beach.

[txagwxman]

After consulting with wxman57, we have decided to take a trip to Tahiti on Sunday along with a few special guests (at their own expense, of course) and leave all this cold behind for warmer/sunny weather, lounging on the beach.

Awesome weather here today/tomorrow...saturday clouds roll in.

[Tireman4]

After consulting with wxman57, we have decided to take a trip to Tahiti on Sunday along with a few special guests (at their own expense, of course) and leave all this cold behind for warmer/sunny weather, lounging on the beach.

Cruise...Yeah...wintertime cruises are the best. We went to Grand Cayman and Jamaica in December 2007. The best, just the best.

[wxman57]

I can honestly say that in being on this board/forum for almost eight years now, I cannot recall Wxman57 posting such a message. It should give everyone on here some pause.

No big deal, I'm just not sure about the timing and extent of cold and moisture next week.

[gpsnowman]

Ok. So what are we looking at here? What are the morning models saying? Not as cold or colder? What about moisture? I swear if it does not snow this upcoming week, I am moving to Fargo.

[txagwxman]

And the GFS backs off again...at least early.