Texas Winter 2012-2013

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3481 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 8:38 am

Here's the latest GFS prediction for next week in Dallas and Houston. Lowest temps in the mid to upper 30s. The trajectory of the air isn't from northern Canada as with the front a couple weeks ago.

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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3482 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 26, 2013 8:58 am

By seeing how things are going,I can see our friend Portastorm creating the Texas Spring 2013 thread sooner rather than later. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3483 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:14 am

cycloneye wrote:By seeing how things are going,I can see our friend Portastorm creating the Texas Spring 2013 thread sooner rather than later. :)


Et tu, Luis?! :(

Some of us have not given up the ship yet. We remain hopeful and are doing our best to reverse this disgusting trend of above normal seasonal temperatures!
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3484 Postby TexasF6 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:29 am

Disheartened as I am, the NAM (depicted @twisterdata) gives me hope showing that cold air aiming at the spine of the Rockies!?!! :flag:
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3485 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:33 am

Portastorm wrote:Et tu, Luis?! :(

Some of us have not given up the ship yet. We remain hopeful and are doing our best to reverse this disgusting trend of above normal seasonal temperatures!


I'm with you Portastorm! Even if it is a sinking ship we'll be the last until every passenger is off! Be strong and don't give into the heat miser rhetoric :wink:. One by one we've been converted even some of the true blues.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3486 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:39 am

Cyclenall wrote:We'll see, but that's like saying after getting the appetizer (current arctic blast) the next meal is going to be the mint you receive after the meal. I was expecting the entree of the peak SSW and polar collapse. This just confirms my dislike for winter in general...mostly boring. Just a few days out of a whole season being something notable does not impress me. Let's just jump into summer now I say :) .


It's the teleconnections, the last one was very favorable and aimed right at eastern Canada with a very +PNA. The next one is -PNA to neutral positive so western/central Canada is the more favorable location. I believe Ms. Screamer has shown some distaste for it's possible visit :D
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#3487 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:09 am

I didn't want to do this, but had to dig deep in the PWC vault to get it. Option of last resort!

Image
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#3488 Postby dhweather » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:20 am

I'd love another 10-12" snow event, two in one year was incredible. But I just think we'll probably be near climo at best, a few nights at or below freezing. The drought, I fear, will intensify through spring, little precip and warmer weather. I fear another LaNina is coming this spring/summer.

I'll probably be on a rant all spring cursing the CAP. Worse yet, I expect stage 3 and will be fearing stage 4 water restrictions by July/August.

Gloom and doom. We'll be praying for a massive Sandy like storm to come in to south Texas and go up the I-35 corridor to the Dakotas to provide drought relief.
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#3489 Postby gpsnowman » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:57 am

Even if we get nothing the rest of the winter it was still better than last year. Three snow events. Some ok cold. More freezes than last year. Who knows, maybe mid Feb might bring us a couple of surprises. Happened before in alot of past Febs. I still have hope but I am already thinking of baseball spring training. Rangers open on March 31 I believe. Keep it wet and all will be good. Pray for rain at least. I don't know if I can handle another dry/hot spring/summer. I might go crazy and travel to Houston to feel some awesome humidity and see the Rangers and Stros. Wxman 57 can buy my tickets! :lol:
Last edited by gpsnowman on Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3490 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:57 am

cycloneye wrote:By seeing how things are going,I can see our friend Portastorm creating the Texas Spring 2013 thread sooner rather than later. :)


I'll support you, Luis! Let's stop all this talk about cold and snow and talk about some HEAT! Time to head out for a 40-mile bike ride (in shorts and short sleeves).
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3491 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:By seeing how things are going,I can see our friend Portastorm creating the Texas Spring 2013 thread sooner rather than later. :)


I'll support you, Luis! Let's stop all this talk about cold and snow and talk about some HEAT! Time to head out for a 40-mile bike ride (in shorts and short sleeves).


I absolutely refuse to to do this right now! I'm not giving up. Now, if we get to Feb. 15th and there are no signs on the horizon for wintry fun for Texas, I then will strongly re-consider my decision and may possibly create a "Texas Spring 2013" thread. But until then ... no! :lol:

Meanwhile, at least it cooled down a bit here in Austin. 52 and drizzle at the moment. Quite a difference from yesterday's 80 degrees and sunny. Thank God the front slipped through. I'm not trying to coax it down to Houston. Maybe wxman57 will be out on his ride and experience a nice frontal passage!
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#3492 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:38 pm

I hope it front gets him. Dadgum my run was hot this morning. Humid too. 52:30 for 7 miles, but I paid for it. Dang it. Sigh.
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#3493 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 26, 2013 2:12 pm

If anyone's reading the long range GFS and Euro just know that there is little to no consistency. Every run essentially has been different. But if you were to believe it they keep a lot of the cold air to the east. Porta's Feb 15th date is a good one, if no signs by then we can jump straight to summer :)

Front sneaked it's way as far south as the NW counties of SE Texas but it's losing steam and will be retreating tonight. Heat comes back to all of Texas tomorrow through Wednesday

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#3494 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Sat Jan 26, 2013 7:07 pm

If this won't give you instant A/C (just from looking at it) I don't know what will: Baker Lake Nunavut - Minus 61 Celcius http://www.flickr.com/photos/canadiancampbells/8378245615/

He saw me complain about the cloudy depressing skies that we have here and linked me to where he lives (all of a sudden I feel so much better about our conditions).
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#3495 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Jan 26, 2013 8:22 pm

A nice wintry, gray, gloomy January day here in the Red River Valley. The kind you remember when it is 110 in the shade and hasn't rained for weeks.

Plenty of fog, drizzle, heavy clouds, chilly winds, and temps in the lower to mid 40s all day long.

Great day for a fire.

Could have sworn I saw Wxman57 riding a bike outside all bundled up in fleece and Spandex. :lol:
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#3496 Postby Fehize » Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:00 pm

I don't want to be the ringer of joining 'Spring 2o13', but it has already come down here in the RGV. Although I do like warm weather, my poor, poor A/C unit died out sometime early-December, and it was in the low 9os inside my house today. ;_; Cold, I already miss youuuuu! Apparently, so do the three wasps that lost their way into the only room with a wall A/C unit [by the kitchen], so we have to wait until the heat and lack of water kill them as they sadly keep hitting the windows as the door stays close.

Anyone in the Austin area wanna trade your slight cold for somewhat beach weather? :sun:

Wxman57! You know you wanna bike here~~~
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#3497 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:43 pm

One product issued by NWS for:

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
950 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-270700-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
950 PM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

...A VARIETY OF WEATHER CHANGES COMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IN THE NEXT WEEK...

AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND
LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO AROUND A MILE OR LESS IN THE NIGHT AND
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND THIS WILL
MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARM LATE
JANUARY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80. DAILY HIGHS AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE WARMER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES TO WEST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. BREEZY OR WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...IN WAKE OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CAUSE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHTS TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD AFTERNOONS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

$$
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#3498 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:43 pm

Lets keep cheering on the JMA! At 5h it's actually very similar to the GFS only the JMA is wetter at the surface with an actual storm. Euro is in-between the two with precip just outrunning cold (flurries for Red River) while NAM is probably the most robust but doesn't go out as far yet

Image

It is 24hr total precip so how much of that actually is in cold air I don't know but worth a shot!
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#3499 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 27, 2013 7:04 am

I am posting in this thread a heads up about the severe weather outbreak that may occur in three days in SE Texas.Go to the 2013 U.S Severe Weather thread for more information.
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Re:

#3500 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 8:42 am

Tireman4 wrote:I hope it front gets him. Dadgum my run was hot this morning. Humid too. 52:30 for 7 miles, but I paid for it. Dang it. Sigh.


Nope! I've turned that cold front into a warm front. It's moving back to the north toward Dallas. Heat prevails for 72 more hours.
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