Texas Winter 2016-2017

[CaptinCrunch]

This system is going to create a major winter storm across the lower plains, and with models not handling the cold this past weekend means we need to keep serious watch of this one here in NTX. Friday of last week broke a record for DFW with a lowest maximum temp of 27 (record was 28 1970) and Saturday morning's low of (14 at DFW) but low temps ranged between 10-14 degrees across DFW area, that's coldest it's been since Winter 2009-2010 (lowest 13).

We have all the elements coming together, it's just going to be a matter of placement and timing.

[orangeblood]

Anyone have analog(s) to this system? Can't seem to remember this set up, most HP positions is to the N or NW

Last winter's heavy rain event in late December 2015 comes to mind....HP was a little weaker/further west but 500 mb somewhat similar. Have to do more digging to find a similar HP position and strength though

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I have emerged from hibernation. I hope you've all had enough of this winter nonsense. Looking forward to nice warm southerly winds all this week, and possibly through next weekend. However, I don't trust that sneaky cold air. Even though the models are now stalling the front well to my north, cold air tends to move southward regardless of the upper-level winds. Models often get that wrong. Let's hope not, in this case.

Lowest temperature I saw on my thermometer Saturday was about 22 - and that's on my front porch. My bananas are now dead. So much for the bunch of bananas that was nearly ripe. They're black now. Have to cut all of them down and let them start over.

Well if wxman57 is on a Bear Watch, then this certainly has my attention. Should be an active week around here.

[Snowman67]

I have emerged from hibernation. I hope you've all had enough of this winter nonsense. Looking forward to nice warm southerly winds all this week, and possibly through next weekend. However, I don't trust that sneaky cold air. Even though the models are now stalling the front well to my north, cold air tends to move southward regardless of the upper-level winds. Models often get that wrong. Let's hope not, in this case.

Lowest temperature I saw on my thermometer Saturday was about 22 - and that's on my front porch. My bananas are now dead. So much for the bunch of bananas that was nearly ripe. They're black now. Have to cut all of them down and let them start over.

When is the last time it got that cold at your place?

I don't remember, I try to forget such things. Maybe 5-6 years ago? Perhaps longer.

I tried to make a deal with you to keep this from happening, but you wanted no part of it

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

The great warm up will commence this week after a bitter cold weekend…one of the coldest in the last 5 years

Arctic high pressure dome that brought the very cold temperatures Friday-Sunday is shifting eastward allowing winds to turn ESE this morning. Low temperatures were reached early in the evening Sunday and have been climbing overnight as both clouds and ESE winds off the “warmer” Gulf of Mexico have spread inland. SE and S wind will be in place all week with a gradual warming trend that by Wednesday and Thursday will features highs near 80. Warmth will continue into at least the first half of next weekend.

Main weather items of interest over the next 4 days will be how warm will temperatures rises and when will sea fog form. Warm air advection pattern will be in place for the next several days with highs in the low to mid 60’s today rising into the mid 70’s Tuesday-Saturday. Nearshore water temperatures have cooled into the upper 40’s and as dewpoints rise into the mid to upper 60’s by the end of the week sea fog will become likely.

Next weather change will be another arctic frontal boundary and strong Pacific storm system which will approach TX Friday-Saturday. Moisture profiles will be excessive over TX by Friday into Saturday as the arctic front begins to bleed southward. Boundary is expected to stall this weekend over C and N TX with a prolonged widespread rainfall event across much of the state Saturday-Monday. For now will keep the cold air NW of SE TX at least for the first part of the weekend, but suspect that models are not handling the very shallow air mass well nor the potential for convective cold pooling to push the boundary a bit faster southward than forecast. The period looks potentially very wet with both slow moving upper air and surface features and copious moisture with PWS of 1.6 inches in mid January.

[aggiecutter]

As Weatherman 57 stated, that cold shallow dense air is sneaky. The models do not handle it very well. Because of the trajectory and shallow nature of the air mass, those in east Texas will probably be protected as the air mass will get hung up in the Quachita Mountains of West-Central Arkansas and SE Oklahoma. However, for those west of a Paris to Springs Springs line, the air mass could very well go all the way to Gulf Coast. The saving grace in the DFW area is that the heavy rain might bring down enough warm air to keep them in the mid 30's. Having said that, if I were living in the DFW area, I would be leary of the model runs over the next several of days and their output, as it is going to be a close call in the Metroplex.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[hriverajr]

12 Z gfs much warmer... Energy hangs back as well so far. Front does not get past north central Texas. Wxman would love this run. In all fairness last 3 or so runs are trending warmer.

[Ntxw]

GFS is warmer yeah, would be a widespread significant heavy rain event

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS is warmer yeah, would be a widespread significant heavy rain event

It needs to be either a Rain or Snow event, but that frz-rain possibility is for the penguins.

[gatorcane]

Wow what happened to Winter according to the latest GFS? Through the entire 384 hour run, no significant cold fronts and we are in the peak of winter?

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Wow what happened to Winter according to the latest GFS? Through the entire 384 hour run, no significant cold fronts and we are in the peak of winter?

Perhaps we are in the 3-5 window where cold is lost?

[gboudx]

Wxman57 has redirects to his personal web server with his custom model maps.

[Ntxw]

This weekend's cold snap is the result of backend -WPO and collapsing EPO block. The warmth coming has been well advertised with very +EPO for the nation, possibly near record warmth. But whats new there? Mood swing winter we've already seen. Its been highlighted the middle of Jan will be mild, pattern shift to -EPO more likely by the end of the month and early Feb, cutoff lows not withstanding for the srn plains

Very ninoish with warm canada and active wet pattern

[Ntxw]

I'm also a skeptic of of guidance stalling the arctic front in NTX. Doesnt mean it will be cold enough for ice but 60s on one side and 30s/40s on the other the whole time seems unrealistic to me. Either it blasts through or the air mass is not that cold imo

[Brent]

LOL the GFS doesn't even have a freeze here through 384 hours

I guess I won't complain though, if it's not going to snow might as well not. and I have no desire in inches of ice.

Bring on the heavy rain

[hriverajr]

I would be skeptical too on the front totally stalling, but it would be a very very shallow layer of cold air. That last model run has 850 mb winds out of the sse at 30-35 kts.

[Ntxw]

I would be skeptical too on the front totally stalling, but it would be a very very shallow layer of cold air. That last model run has 850 mb winds out of the sse at 30-35 kts.

That SSE wind aloft from the gulf is ample for very heavy qpf. I would love a start like 2015 rain wise in January potentially into a +ENSO later this year. Texas would be in good shape

[Yukon Cornelius]

I know it's a pipe dream but I wish for once, one time, that the forecast would be cut and dry. "This is what you will get" kind of thing. With my secondary line of work the weather controls everything and presents a ton of work with certain conditions. For instance, this weekends possible Ice storm. It would be really beneficial to know numerous days out if there is actually a good chance at it happening due to the amount of prep work that is needed to keep livestock warm, healthy and alive. I have quite a few calves right now and ice of the magnitude discussed could be devasting to them. Not to ramble but more of just putting my thoughts to words. Once again, I appreciate all of y'all and the work you put in on here. You've helped me out over the years more than y'all could imagine.

[Brent]

I would be skeptical too on the front totally stalling, but it would be a very very shallow layer of cold air. That last model run has 850 mb winds out of the sse at 30-35 kts.

That SSE wind aloft from the gulf is ample for very heavy qpf. I would love a start like 2015 rain wise in January potentially into a +ENSO later this year. Texas would be in good shape

I was thinking the same thing... a big rain event in January would be a really encouraging sign especially with the el nino talk.

Fox 4 just had an 80 on Wednesday... the temperature extremes this winter are just amazing.

[Ntxw]

I know it's a pipe dream but I wish for once, one time, that the forecast would be cut and dry. "This is what you will get" kind of thing. With my secondary line of work the weather controls everything and presents a ton of work with certain conditions. For instance, this weekends possible Ice storm. It would be really beneficial to know numerous days out if there is actually a good chance at it happening due to the amount of prep work that is needed to keep livestock warm, healthy and alive. I have quite a few calves right now and ice of the magnitude discussed could be devasting to them. Not to ramble but more of just putting my thoughts to words. Once again, I appreciate all of y'all and the work you put in on here. You've helped me out over the years more than y'all could imagine.

The models literally has a sharp temperature gradient. Mild 50s/60s on one side then a county over 30s to near freezing west of I-35. You will likely be cold 30s and raining in the falls, if a few degrees off and messy.