Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON doesn’t show much change. Still unrelenting.

There is a good difference between the 6z & 12z with the z500 Vort.

Also waiting from WeatherNerds to get the final verdict on the full Precipitation Type.

[Cerlin]

12z ICON doesn’t show much change. Still unrelenting.

There is a good difference between the 6z & 12z with the z500 Vort.

Also waiting from WeatherNerds to get the final verdict on the full Precipitation Type.

Yeah good point, I didn’t check that metric, but in terms of cold temperatures and a wide band of precipitation, the ICON is being pretty consistent.

[Ntxw]

Hoping for a harder push of cold. Spending Thursday in the teens entombed in sleet and ice is a mess with icon's persistence.

[funster]

Want fluffy snow not ice. Don't worry Ercot is on top of it all. Pray for the grid!

[txtwister78]

I know it's the NAVGEM but what a mess that would be Thursday across a good portion of the state. Even develops a low out into the gulf.

[cheezyWXguy]

Want fluffy snow not ice. Don't worry Ercot is on top of it all. Pray for the grid!

Oh yeah, I’m sure! They have such a great track record

[bubba hotep]

At 48hrs, the H5 differences b/w the 12z GFS, 06z GFS, & 00z Euro are all minor. This is starting to get locked in, but the minor differences propagate out in time to produce the different solutions. So we are beginning to frame the window of possibilities for the medium range. The good thing we are talking about is a longwave trough that won't be subject to the radical changes that models can throw around with short waves.

[gboudx]

Want fluffy snow not ice. Don't worry Ercot is on top of it all. Pray for the grid!

Oh yeah, I’m sure! They have such a great track record

Article in the Dallas paper says they’re ready. Already expecting near record demand Thur/Fri. Still, I’m not trusting them.

[Ntxw]

At 48hrs, the H5 differences b/w the 12z GFS, 06z GFS, & 00z Euro are all minor. This is starting to get locked in, but the minor differences propagate out in time to produce the different solutions. So we are beginning to frame the window of possibilities for the medium range. The good thing we are talking about is a longwave trough that won't be subject to the radical changes that models can throw around with short waves.

Yeah it's unlikely the storm poofs, it's happening and significant impacts. The cold is coming. How much qpf and precip types will adjust now base on trajectory.

[Ntxw]

Want fluffy snow not ice. Don't worry Ercot is on top of it all. Pray for the grid!

Oh yeah, I’m sure! They have such a great track record

Article in the Dallas paper says they’re ready. Already expecting near record demand Thur/Fri. Still, I’m not trusting them.

Article also stated they were anticipating limited precip. This system as it stands will provide MORE precip potentially than the V day storm 2021.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON has a huge difference compared to 6z with a LOT more moisture, also, the model soundings are showing a weaker Warm Nose as well.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has trended with more moisture, caving in with the ICON.

Oh my goodness, it's a big one.

[Haris]

Oh my god. That - tilt on gfs

[bubba hotep]

At 96hr, liking the H5 changes on the 12z GFS. Heights are a little higher in the NE, and our trough is consolidating energy in the SW and becoming more neutral vs. the positive more strung look at 06z.

[cheezyWXguy]

Trough is stronger on 12z gfs and beginning to take on a negative tilt across AZ/NM at 108

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is crippling icing event.

Ends with some snow. Hopefully deeper cold trends.

[bubba hotep]

At 96hr, liking the H5 changes on the 12z GFS. Heights are a little higher in the NE, and our trough is consolidating energy in the SW and becoming more neutral vs. the positive more strung look at 06z.

And then next few frames coming in....

[Iceresistance]

Oh my god. That - tilt on gfs

12z GFS is crippling icing event.

Ends with some snow. Hopefully deeper cold trends.

I did expect changes for that system on the GFS, but nothing like this!

[Iceresistance]

At 96hr, liking the H5 changes on the 12z GFS. Heights are a little higher in the NE, and our trough is consolidating energy in the SW and becoming more neutral vs. the positive more strung look at 06z.

And then next few frames coming in....



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022012912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

(On the first Image)

That was literally me, except no Glasses.

[Ntxw]

Very cold Friday morning north of I-20 single digits. Below 0 I-40 and N in Oklahoma.