Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

Ensembles agree on the pattern turning colder around valentines, we will see

[txtwister78]

Ensembles agree on the pattern turning colder around valentines, we will see

Right now, Canadian is the only one really showing that. GEFS and Euro Ens are not but a lot can change between now and then.

[Yukon Cornelius]

67 today. Feels like summer. Get this outta here.

[Stratton23]

70 degrees here, down right disgusting

[DallasAg]

Meanwhile DFW has a shot at closing a month without an 80F high for the first time since Jan 2022. And 53 days since the last 80 degree temp.

Been a long hot stretch for sure.

[jasons2k]

Went on a midday jog today. Lots of folks are enjoying this nice weather and did the same. It’s absolutely beautiful outside. It felt great to break a sweat.

[jasons2k]

Ensembles agree on the pattern turning colder around valentines, we will see

Wait, I thought the cold was never leaving?!
Oh wait, now it’s back at the end of January…
Oh wait, now it’s back the first week of February…
Oh wait, the cold is finally coming after Feb 10th…
Oh wait, the cold will finally come around Valentine’s…
Oh wait…

[Stratton23]

Cranked the thermostat down to about 62 degrees here, perfect indoor weather, gotta make it as cold as possible inside if the weather wont cooperate outside lol

[Edwards Limestone]

If we're going to winter cancel, can we at least get some more rain

[orangeblood]

Ensembles agree on the pattern turning colder around valentines, we will see

Wait, I thought the cold was never leaving?!
Oh wait, now it’s back at the end of January…
Oh wait, now it’s back the first week of February…
Oh wait, the cold is finally coming after Feb 10th…
Oh wait, the cold will finally come around Valentine’s…
Oh wait…

Lol sounds like a Larry Cosgrove blog….just keep chasing that cold and pray it eventually hits!!!

[Stratton23]

Orangeblood cosgrove is one of the best meteorologists out there, obviously hes not always right, but he definitely hits the mark more times than he misses with his forecasts, especially with the winter, its very complicated to make a forecast with the MJO being a mess right now, we arent down with winter

[Cpv17]

If we're going to winter cancel, can we at least get some more rain

This please!!

[Stratton23]

I would rather save anymore rain until the summer, long range guidance suggests the death ridge returns in june-july again, I cannot hide my hatred for the warmth/ heat, and I really hope the state does not see a repeat of what feel like every day was above 100 degrees last summer

[Cpv17]

I would rather save anymore rain until the summer, long range guidance suggests the death ridge returns in june-july again, I cannot hide my hatred for the warmth/ heat, and I really hope the state does not see a repeat of what feel like every day was above 100 degrees last summer

Rain now and during the spring helps limit temps during the summer.

[Itryatgolf]

I'm just curious on what is slowing the mjo from advancing to the colder phases? Or what we need to look for? Most niños are backloaded but perhaps this one will not be. I'm still hoping we have one more opportunity this winter here

[bubba hotep]

If it's not going to snow, can we just get today on repeat with rain every 5 or 6 days?

[Brent]

We almost hit 70 and our forecast high was 62

Last Monday we struggled to get above freezing all day

[Cpv17]

We almost hit 70 and our forecast high was 62

Last Monday we struggled to get above freezing all day

I heard temps in Montana changed by about 100° in a weeks time.

[bubba hotep]

I'm just curious on what is slowing the mjo from advancing to the colder phases? Or what we need to look for? Most niños are backloaded but perhaps this one will not be. I'm still hoping we have one more opportunity this winter here

El Ninos can blunt MJO activity after the initial strengthening phase, which is often kicked off by strong MJO activity. It appears that this current MJO is being slowed and weakened by interaction with the Nino standing phase. You could think of it this way: as the dry phase of the MJO wave interacts with the wet phase of ENSO, it's kind of like the MJO is trying to run through a field of mud. Everything is getting mucked up lol

[Itryatgolf]

I'm just curious on what is slowing the mjo from advancing to the colder phases? Or what we need to look for? Most niños are backloaded but perhaps this one will not be. I'm still hoping we have one more opportunity this winter here

El Ninos can blunt MJO activity after the initial strengthening phase, which is often kicked off by strong MJO activity. It appears that this current MJO is being slowed and weakened by interaction with the Nino standing phase. You could think of it this way: as the dry phase of the MJO wave interacts with the wet phase of ENSO, it's kind of like the MJO is trying to run through a field of mud. Everything is getting mucked up lol

Do you think it will eventually get to moving? Otherwise, we will run February through the garden, meaning not much opportunity at cold or snow if things do not change.