Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Portastorm]

Hopefully, we start seeing GFS and Euro trending towards our Crazy Canadian Uncle this morning!!

Amen brother! I think most of us are tired of having our 2019 winter hopes/dreams being s**t-stomped to the curb. We need a break here.

[South Texas Storms]

Hopefully, we start seeing GFS and Euro trending towards our Crazy Canadian Uncle this morning!!

Amen brother! I think most of us are tired of having our 2019 winter hopes/dreams being s**t-stomped to the curb. We need a break here.

Yeah, we gotta get the forum morale up! 1 good snow event will do it. I'm hopeful that this next system will produce. Hoping for good trends in the models today!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If i had to draw up a scenario for snow, this is it. I would HATE for this to be wasted in the middle of January.

I thought about doing a re-analysis of some past events to compare, however still offline are the NOAA products.

Per Matt Lanza


https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/938798803469176833

[wxman57]

You have to be careful with those snow accumulation maps or the precip type maps. You don't know what algorithms they are using to decide precip type. I notice that the GFS is showing snow between College Station & Waco on Wednesday morning. However, if you look at the predicted sounding, it also has the freezing level way above 700mb (close to 12,000 ft). All the precip is forming in mid-level clouds then falling through a quite warm layer all the way down to the surface. This is NOT a setup for snow across SE Texas unless the air was about 10 deg colder.

One problem I've pointed out is that there is no front coming down. Not Arctic, and not even Canadian. If we were going to have a cold front move through the D-FW area tomorrow, then you'd think it would show up somewhere between Texas and Canada. It doesn't. When the upper trof passes, it will drag down some of the highly-modified Canadian air over the Plains, which really isn't very cold for January. We need a colder source region for any significant snow here.

[wxman57]

Here's an example from the latest GFS. I selected an area in the middle of its snow prediction next Wednesday morning. Sounding below indicates precip forming in sub-freezing air between about 12,000 and 25,000 ft (mid-level clouds). Such precip would be light snow. However, it then falls through a layer of above-freezing air. True, sometimes if the precip is heavy enough it can lower the temperature of the air below as it saturates with moisture, but that's not what the GFS is indicating.

[Cpv17]

Here's an example from the latest GFS. I selected an area in the middle of its snow prediction next Wednesday morning. Sounding below indicates precip forming in sub-freezing air between about 12,000 and 25,000 ft (mid-level clouds). Such precip would be light snow. However, it then falls through a layer of above-freezing air. True, sometimes if the precip is heavy enough it can lower the temperature of the air below as it saturates with moisture, but that's not what the GFS is indicating.

http://wxman57.com/images/sounding.jpg

It’s 5 days out lol it can and will change several times. With the way you talk, you act like it’s set in stone

[Ntxw]

If i had to draw up a scenario for snow, this is it. I would HATE for this to be wasted in the middle of January.

I thought about doing a re-analysis of some past events to compare, however still offline are the NOAA products.

Per Matt Lanza


https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/938798803469176833

Yeah the general pattern is one that can bring snow to Texas. It is a matter of orientation of how the s/w ejects and depth of cold air. The PSU E-wall is a nice source but it is very limited and doesn't present a broader view or parameters.

[Ralph's Weather]

If i had to draw up a scenario for snow, this is it. I would HATE for this to be wasted in the middle of January.

I thought about doing a re-analysis of some past events to compare, however still offline are the NOAA products.

Per Matt Lanza


https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/938798803469176833

Very interesting, thanks for sharing. All of those show a digging shortwave into a western ridge. The western ridge is further E than I would have guessed.

[Ntxw]

I thought about doing a re-analysis of some past events to compare, however still offline are the NOAA products.

Per Matt Lanza


https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/938798803469176833

Very interesting, thanks for sharing. All of those show a digging shortwave into a western ridge. The western ridge is further E than I would have guessed.

The +PNA can work, but of course only if there is a something digging (usually) cutoff in the southwest beneath it.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Here's an example from the latest GFS. I selected an area in the middle of its snow prediction next Wednesday morning. Sounding below indicates precip forming in sub-freezing air between about 12,000 and 25,000 ft (mid-level clouds). Such precip would be light snow. However, it then falls through a layer of above-freezing air. True, sometimes if the precip is heavy enough it can lower the temperature of the air below as it saturates with moisture, but that's not what the GFS is indicating.

http://wxman57.com/images/sou%20nding.jpg

With all due respect sir, it shows the wet bulb temp is below freezing. As you noted, it can saturate the layer.

Just here to be angels advocate

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With the trough situated like this, ive been flabbergasted that we cant get HP's to develop over the arctic. What does it take? I'm seeing all these surface lows. Is this typical of a nino pattern? Does it have to do with the winds? Do we need more blocking? I need answers!!!

[orangeblood]

You have to be careful with those snow accumulation maps or the precip type maps. You don't know what algorithms they are using to decide precip type. I notice that the GFS is showing snow between College Station & Waco on Wednesday morning. However, if you look at the predicted sounding, it also has the freezing level way above 700mb (close to 12,000 ft). All the precip is forming in mid-level clouds then falling through a quite warm layer all the way down to the surface. This is NOT a setup for snow across SE Texas unless the air was about 10 deg colder.

One problem I've pointed out is that there is no front coming down. Not Arctic, and not even Canadian. If we were going to have a cold front move through the D-FW area tomorrow, then you'd think it would show up somewhere between Texas and Canada. It doesn't. When the upper trof passes, it will drag down some of the highly-modified Canadian air over the Plains, which really isn't very cold for January. We need a colder source region for any significant snow here.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

It doesn't appear that the source region is the issue..most of southern Canada is sitting at 15-20 C below normal (that is cold any way you slice it!). It's the upper air support that seems to be the issue, too progressive at this time, plenty of cold air though!!

Current anomalies across North America, check out Canada...

[Ntxw]

With the trough situated like this, ive been flabbergasted that we cant get HP's to develop over the arctic. What does it take? I'm seeing all these surface lows. Is this typical of a nino pattern? Does it have to do with the winds? Do we need more blocking? I need answers!!!

Very hard to get big surface HP in any Nino event. Stronger than average Aleutian low (lower heights) -> GOA connection has a low frequency influence on mslp in W-C Canada.

In a Nina you have a big ridge over the Aleutians which (again low key) increases mslp in W-C Canada.

[orangeblood]

With the trough situated like this, ive been flabbergasted that we cant get HP's to develop over the arctic. What does it take? I'm seeing all these surface lows. Is this typical of a nino pattern? Does it have to do with the winds? Do we need more blocking? I need answers!!!

Very hard to get big surface HP in any Nino event. Stronger than average Aleutian low (lower heights) -> GOA connection has a low frequency influence on mslp in W-C Canada.

In a Nina you have a big ridge over the Aleutians which (again low key) increases mslp in W-C Canada.

I think in this evolving pattern, key on blocking in the Davis Strait, if we can get blocking from Nova Scotia through the Davis Strait it will force that brutally cold air south across much of the lower 48....until then, a lot of that cold air is escaping out across the Northern Atlantic and it's just glancing blows for us!!

So in essence, need an NAO tank but that's not looking great at this time...

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

You have to be careful with those snow accumulation maps or the precip type maps. You don't know what algorithms they are using to decide precip type. I notice that the GFS is showing snow between College Station & Waco on Wednesday morning. However, if you look at the predicted sounding, it also has the freezing level way above 700mb (close to 12,000 ft). All the precip is forming in mid-level clouds then falling through a quite warm layer all the way down to the surface. This is NOT a setup for snow across SE Texas unless the air was about 10 deg colder.

One problem I've pointed out is that there is no front coming down. Not Arctic, and not even Canadian. If we were going to have a cold front move through the D-FW area tomorrow, then you'd think it would show up somewhere between Texas and Canada. It doesn't. When the upper trof passes, it will drag down some of the highly-modified Canadian air over the Plains, which really isn't very cold for January. We need a colder source region for any significant snow here.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

It doesn't appear that the source region is the issue..most of southern Canada is sitting at 15-20 C below normal (that is cold any way you slice it!). It's the upper air support that seems to be the issue, too progressive at this time, plenty of cold air though!!

Current anomalies across North America, check out Canada...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011806/gfs_T2ma_namer_2.png

It's almost as if someone built a giant wall on the US-Canada border.

[utweather]

You have to be careful with those snow accumulation maps or the precip type maps. You don't know what algorithms they are using to decide precip type. I notice that the GFS is showing snow between College Station & Waco on Wednesday morning. However, if you look at the predicted sounding, it also has the freezing level way above 700mb (close to 12,000 ft). All the precip is forming in mid-level clouds then falling through a quite warm layer all the way down to the surface. This is NOT a setup for snow across SE Texas unless the air was about 10 deg colder.

One problem I've pointed out is that there is no front coming down. Not Arctic, and not even Canadian. If we were going to have a cold front move through the D-FW area tomorrow, then you'd think it would show up somewhere between Texas and Canada. It doesn't. When the upper trof passes, it will drag down some of the highly-modified Canadian air over the Plains, which really isn't very cold for January. We need a colder source region for any significant snow here.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

It doesn't appear that the source region is the issue..most of southern Canada is sitting at 15-20 C below normal (that is cold any way you slice it!). It's the upper air support that seems to be the issue, too progressive at this time, plenty of cold air though!!

Current anomalies across North America, check out Canada...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011806/gfs_T2ma_namer_2.png

I think you need that big purple blue blob farther west and south and before that coming from Alaska.

Anyway if it's not gonna snow I enjoy the nice cool winter temps. Had a good fall leaf season. Hardly any air conditioning, not a whole lot of heater running either. Nothing extreme.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS looking better, cutting off a piece of S/W energy similar to CMC

[Haris]

Yeah! We need more cold ! ! ! This could be the big one ! Has the potential! More cold ! I like the trends for the trough !

[Cpv17]

12Z GFS looking better, cutting off a piece of S/W energy similar to CMC

Definitely looking better!

[Haris]

It’s something. 2 or 3 more F colder and $