Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

Just talked to a friend in Mobile and sleet is starting to accumulate on the patio.

[Jag95]

Sleeting pretty good in Mobile.

[MississippiWx]

My high temperature today was 5 degrees colder than forecast. Have to wonder how much significance that will have on ice accumulations tonight and tomorrow.

[BigB0882]

NWS doesn't list any ice for us in Baton Rouge on Thur night. I find that a little puzzling since it is supposed to get below freezing and the rain isn't supposed to end, with rain chances still at 80% on Friday and 30% rain/snow on Friday night. Not sure how it is going to get down to 31 without water freezing. Must be a freak of nature thing. lol

[TigerCraig]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER WEATHER MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GULF COAST REGION...

.SHORT TERM...
CLASSIC WEATHER PATTERN TO PRODUCE WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. BLIZZARD PRODUCING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED UP THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST CONUS HAS DUMPED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TODAY...AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO RISE ANYMORE BEFORE SLIGHT COOLING
TAKES PLACE NEAR SUNSET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER
LOW/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHWEST
MEXICO WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
JETSTREAM FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. ONE SPEED MAX
MOVING THROUGH THIS JET IS HELPING PRODUCE A THICKENING LAYER OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SLEET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS SLEET IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE ANY TRAVEL ISSUES DURING THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR.

THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN KICK EAST ACROSS
WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL MOVE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAINLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE MEASURABLE THURSDAY
MORNING. AREAS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SEE
A MIX OF LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT RAIN...AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO START ANY WEATHER WATCHES OR ADVISORIES TONIGHT SINCE THE
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ONLY 20 PERCENT.

PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AREAS FROM NEAR THIBODAUX/HOUMA TO NEAR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST WILL START THE DAY
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT SLEET MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN TO
THE SOUTH...AND A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET TO
THE NORTH. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
THIS AREA WHERE THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL ICING OF
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAINLY THROUGH
MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL FAVOR
ALL RAIN IN THIS AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH...SURFACE AND LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT...ACCUMULATING SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY FROM THE BATON ROUGE METRO PARISHES TO
NORTH OF HAMMOND TO BOGALUSA TO POPLARVILLE AND NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH VALID FROM
6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY. NEW MODEL QPF DATA HAS INCREASED
EVEN MORE TODAY WITH MANY SHOWING QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH.
FORTUNATELY...PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
FALLING INTO A SHALLOW COLD LAYER MAY CAUSE ENOUGH WARMING TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN ALL RAIN AT TIMES.
STILL...AM EXPECTING MANY AREAS COULD RECEIVE AT LEAST ONE QUARTER
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY NEAR ONE HALF INCH IN SOME OF
THE AREAS THAT REMAIN NEAR FREEZING LONGER.

ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE NEAR FREEZING LINE AT THE SURFACE WILL
HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF BATON ROUGE AND NEAR MCCOMB...AND SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WILL THEN FAVOR ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN DURING THE LATE
EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COLD.
THE MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO KEEP LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR ADDITIONAL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CARRY RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 22/TD

[SunnyThoughts]

Thats alot of moisture pheww

[timmeister]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
354 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A MIXTURE
OF SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE ARKLAMISS AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SLIGHTLY WARMER
AIR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF MISSISSIPPI
BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY...AND OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

MSZ063>066-072>074-030600-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0002.110203T1200Z-110204T0600Z/
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
354 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

* TIMING: 6 AM TO 9 PM THURSDAY

* MAIN IMPACT: A MIXTURE OF SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...POWERLINES AND TREES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE SMALL DIFFERENCE IN A TEMPERATURE OF
31 DEGREES VERSUS 33 DEGREES WILL MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN HOW
MUCH IMPACT OCCURS FROM THIS WINTER STORM. IN THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO...UP TO A HALF INCH OF ICE COULD ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND
POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER INTERRUPTIONS ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

[bella_may]

Starting to sleet at my house in the central gulf coast of mississippi

[BigB0882]

Baton Rouge is now officially under a winter storm watch.

NWS has taken down the chance of precip tonight to only 20% and then tomorrow they only mention rain/sleet. I guess they think it won't be at freezing any time during the rain? We shall see.

[bella_may]

Noaa has trended tonights low temp down to 29. Colder than the 31 it was earlier

[Pearl River]

It's been sleeting/mixed with rain off and on here in Pearl River.

[Dean4Storms]

Nothing here in Destin, it is 43F and dropping. I think we mostly get rain once again here with maybe a few sleet pellets.

[BigB0882]

Oy vey! Local met just says high of 45 tomorrow! What!? Then the 7 day graphic shows a high of 40. What is it, 40 or 45? They said high of 43 today and then showed our actual high of 36. No wonder everyone is so confused around here. If it gets up to 45, I will run around naked in the rain! No pictures, please...

[Turtle]

Chance of .25" of ice.



The 70% looks so small.. can they really pinpoint it that close?

[TigerCraig]

Crazy--- I was pretty excited all day that our high temp here in Baton Rouge stayed a good 7-10 degrees below the forcasted high temp. But it looks like that won't matter.

All signs for Baton Rouge are trending more and more towards just a brutally cold rain.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[LAMOM]

Oy vey! Local met just says high of 45 tomorrow! What!? Then the 7 day graphic shows a high of 40. What is it, 40 or 45? They said high of 43 today and then showed our actual high of 36. No wonder everyone is so confused around here. If it gets up to 45, I will run around naked in the rain! No pictures, please...

I caught that too. Leads to a bit of confusion as you said.

[Kennethb]

Oy vey! Local met just says high of 45 tomorrow! What!? Then the 7 day graphic shows a high of 40. What is it, 40 or 45? They said high of 43 today and then showed our actual high of 36. No wonder everyone is so confused around here. If it gets up to 45, I will run around naked in the rain! No pictures, please...

The only local channel I watch here in BR is Channel 9. Yet they think most of our wintry precip will occur Thursday night versus Thursday morning.

[tugreenie]

The hi here was supposed to be 44. We made it to 37. What I dont understand is that Houston is only 2 degrees colder than we are why are they forcasting snow but only a cold rain on the gulf coast??

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Playing catch up here. Have not seen any news all afternoon. How are the latest model runs looking. Major ice event or cold rain? Does the fact that we only made it to 34 today when we were supposed to be in the low 40's make any difference at all as far as what kind of weather we get tomorrow and tomorrow night? Basically is the air that much colder than forecast and will it translate into being colder the next 24hrs or was it just colder today due to cloud cover?

[MGC]

Just checked out the 0Z KLIX sounding.....below freezing between 1000-925mb with rapid warm up to 9C at 900-850mb.....so, looks like sleet for now.....MGC