Texas Winter 2016-2017

[wxman57]

Here's a loop of the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS at 84hrs (6pm Friday). NAM is farther south with the leading edge of the cold air (between Dallas & Ft. Worth). Freezing line is not too different. Icing threat northern OK through central MO.

[1900hurricane]

I have early concerns about capping/crap lapse for areas south of NTX for this next system. I'm looking forward to some good rains, but I also may have to brace for some disappointment wrt my hopes.

[JDawg512]

Well I've come out of my slumber with hints of moisture returning. Breezy warm day with increasing dew points and humidity. It's a good day to get the last of my light display down before the rain arrives later this week.

[Hurricane_Apu]

The current NWS 7-day forecast for Lafayette does not have us dropping below 62... our average mid-January high temperature... at any time in that period.

[Ntxw]

Aside from front (or lackthereof from the GFS) blowtorch through 25th sans strong Pacific systems. Signs of jet retraction and possible +PNA/-EPO couplet after

[Yukon Cornelius]

Aside from front (or lackthereof from the GFS) blowtorch through 25th sans strong Pacific systems. Signs of jet retraction and possible +PNA/-EPO couplet after

When do the "winter cancel" posts come in?

[Tireman4]

Aside from front (or lackthereof from the GFS) blowtorch through 25th sans strong Pacific systems. Signs of jet retraction and possible +PNA/-EPO couplet after

When do the "winter cancel" posts come in?

Winter has been canceled as per Wxman57. LOL...oh yeah...Cat 5 in the Gulf..

[wxman57]

Aside from front (or lackthereof from the GFS) blowtorch through 25th sans strong Pacific systems. Signs of jet retraction and possible +PNA/-EPO couplet after

When do the "winter cancel" posts come in?

Winter has been canceled as per Wxman57. LOL...oh yeah...Cat 5 in the Gulf..

Time to move on to the spring weather thread? Good thing we can't trust the 384hr GFS...

[Cpv17]

This winter has already been way better than last winter so even if there are no more Artic blasts or wintry precip events this year I would be okay with that. We had a temperature here of 19 degrees with a feels like of 9 Saturday morning around Wharton County just to the southwest of Houston. Around these parts that's very rare so I was definitely pleasantly surprised by that. All of the Houston stations were forecasting mid 20's that morning so they were a good 5 degrees off. A lot of people here had busted pipes and a big mess to wake up to Saturday morning because the forecast never called for it to get that low. Plumbers are having a field day out there this week.

[gpsnowman]

Man it is warm outside. January thaws are certainly not uncommon but I never like it. We always seem to get colder again with our best snow chances yet to come so I am not worried. Looking forward to some serious rainfall this weekend.

[Golf7070]

There is no SSW or MMW in the upcoming 10 days. Far from it actually. EPV indicates enhanced poleward heat flux, but it will be insufficient / well below the necessary threshold to induce zonal wind reversal down to 60N/10hpa. There is lingering wave 1 forcing from the earlier attack and current wave 2 which is converging on the vortex, but all it achieves is a virtual energy balance on either side of the pole because the amplitudes are grossly insufficient. So the resultant is a more elongated 10hpa vortex by day 10-12. Its future orientation will continue to preclude protracted blocking in the NAM/NAO domains. I wouldn't anticipate much help from those indices for at least 2-3 weeks.

I think there is a bit of underestimation regarding the upcoming medium term warm period. The positive EPO surge and contemporaneous low geopotential height field will empty North America of cold air for at least 10 days. January temperature departures will probably be at least +2 for our area.

Now, beyond that time frame, I have alluded to the possibility of February's mean pattern having the best opportunity of all three months to diverge into a genuine winter pattern. If we are being honest here, there has been no genuine, protracted winter pattern lasting more than 4 or 5 days so far thia winter.

However - and I believe this is partially related to the rapidly decaying Nina - I am noticing an alteration in the walker cell orientation, likely beginning Jan 25th, which should initiate an upper divergence pattern more reflective of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The resultant alterations will induce lowering geopotential heights in the N PAC with an increase in atmospheric angular momentum by Day 20.

The tropospheric pattern should therefore evolve into one which promotes more ridging in the areas that have seen troughing thus far -- British Columbia, NW US. These changes will take several days to realize, but the warm pattern should be mostly complete by the last 3 or 4 days of January. My opinion on snowfall remains that same, namely that it is hostile for the coast through late month. A light accumulation is possible.

February has an increasing probability of actually finishing normal or even below normal temp wise in the Northeast due mostly to anticipated changes upstream. The question becomes, can we force a SSW in February? I think it will be difficult, but not impossible, this year due to background conditions. With tha being said, I expect February will feature more transient neg NAO periods than winter thus far, due to rossby wave jet alteration in the NATL and changes w/ walker cells.

Overall, this is the most interested I have been in the winter pattern to date. The possibility exists for a sustained colder than normal regime in the Northeast for February. It should be Pacific driven with occasional Atlantic cooperation, and a low likelihood of SSW

This is from ISOTHERM who posts at American weather. His real name is Tom. Supposed to be good. Ntxw, what do you think about this?

[weatherdude1108]

EWX discussion:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 102026
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
226 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Cloud cover has given way for most of the area this afternoon with
just a few high clouds in place. Temperatures have warmed up into the
middle 70s to near 80 degrees as south/southwesterly winds allow for
efficient heating this afternoon. We should see the return of low-
clouds overnight as low-level moisture remains high. Forecast soundings
are also favorable for the return of some patchy fog for mainly the
central and southern counties of the CWA. Low temperatures tonight
will drop to near 50 degrees in the western counties where moisture
is less, but higher levels of moisture will keep lows closer to 60
degrees across the eastern counties.

Much of the same can be expected tomorrow with clearing skies in the
afternoon and temperatures well above climatological normals. Highs
should top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area.
Wednesday night will remain quite warm with temperatures in the
middle 50s to middle 60s. Low-level flow is expected to increase a
bit as well and some of the guidance is suggesting the possibility of
some drizzle or light rain showers mainly across the eastern
counties after 06z and will show this possibility in the grids.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Things should be changing as we begin the long-term forecast of the
current period. A large trough will be strengthening across the
western CONUS which will likely bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region sometime over the weekend or into early
next week. In the mean time, continued weak ascent in the low levels
of the atmosphere should lead to low rain chances Thursday
afternoon. By Thursday night and into Friday morning, the ECMWF and
the GFS remain in decent agreement that a cold front will move into
North Texas and will eventually stall to our north given the deep
southwesterly flow over the area. When there is that strong
southwesterly flow in place, it can serve as a blocking mechanism
for the southward progression of cold fronts. Cold fronts normal
need some sort of dynamical push to keep them moving south.
Therefore, this stalling of the strong cold front seems reasonable.

As this front stalls to the north on Friday afternoon, it could serve
as a slight enhancement to the rain chances through Friday night,
especially for the northern counties which will be in closer
proximity to the frontal boundary. As the upper low begins to
approach the region on Saturday, the front could actually retreat
back to the north as a warm front and with the loss of the surface
mechanism nearby and the deep synoptic lift of the upper low still
too far away, lowered PoPs on Saturday by about 10 percent.

There is good agreement with the medium range guidance that the
leading piece of the upper low will eject into the Southern Plains on
Sunday and this is when we should see our highest chances of showers
and thunderstorms as a Pacific front moves into the region. There is
still plenty that can change with the model solutions over the next
5 days, but models are showing a high shear and low CAPE environment
which could lead to some stronger storms especially if instability
levels are closer to 1000 J/Kg. The Pacific front is expected to
stall across the southeastern counties on Monday and with another
piece of energy on the backside of the low still to come, will keep
low rain chances in the forecast through the end of the period. It
looks like the system on Sunday should move through fast enough to
limit the duration of the heaviest rainfall, but given that PW
values are quite high for this time of the year, think there is the
potential for some locally heavy rain and this is something to
monitor over the next several days. Again, the potential for
widespread problems will be low due to the faster movement of the
system when the best lift arrives potentially on Sunday.

[Snowman67]

When do the "winter cancel" posts come in?

Winter has been canceled as per Wxman57. LOL...oh yeah...Cat 5 in the Gulf..

Time to move on to the spring weather thread? Good thing we can't trust the 384hr GFS...

We will get another freeze down to you this winter. Just wait

[BTAYLOR5021]

Looking back at some recent weak to moderate LA Nina's in Dfw they have featured some of our most severe arctic blast.... Feb 2011 Feb 1996 Feb 1989 Feb 1985 with several days of below freezing and some type of winter precipitation event....sure hope this holds true for the remaining winter. I'm so not feeling this January Thaw....75 degrees currently in Frisco

[Brent]

That storm on the gfs around January 21-22 looks to have some kind of potential even if it's just cold. Last couple runs at least have had some wintry precip just east of Texas there or later in the period

[Ntxw]

. Ntxw, what do you think about this?

It's a good write up and pretty much falls into place about what we've all discussed here about the upcoming pattern. A little northeast-centric forecast though which for them it's live or die by the NAO.

That storm on the gfs around January 21-22 looks to have some kind of potential even if it's just cold. Last couple runs at least have had some wintry precip just east of Texas there or later in the period

Very Nino-ish type system. Cold a loft but not terribly cold at the surface. Thread needle luck type thing. They have some origin with the huge trough over Alaska so plenty cold above once they undercut. Midland-Odessa cashed in big time with that kind of set up back in 2011-2012.

[Ntxw]

FYI the PDO in December came in at +1.17. That's 36 straight months now, or 3 years of the positive PDO phase. During this span Texas has been blessed with bountiful rains. We've had stretches of dry periods but drought has been kept at bay.

Also 2017 has started out with a near quiet sun. We started the big spotless days last year and this year will increase as we head into the next solar minimum. Should be peaking low the next several years. The last cycle was extremely low for an extended period of time (2007-2010) this cycle should be even less.

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 10 Jan 2017

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 6 days
2017 total: 8 days (89%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 10 Jan 2017

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Winter has been canceled as per Wxman57. LOL...oh yeah...Cat 5 in the Gulf..

Time to move on to the spring weather thread? Good thing we can't trust the 384hr GFS...

We will get another freeze down to you this winter. Just wait

One, maybe two more freeze events i think.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

FYI the PDO in December came in at +1.17. That's 36 straight months now, or 3 years of the positive PDO phase. During this span Texas has been blessed with bountiful rains. We've had stretches of dry periods but drought has been kept at bay.

Also 2017 has started out with a near quiet sun. We started the big spotless days last year and this year will increase as we head into the next solar minimum. Should be peaking low the next several years. The last cycle was extremely low for an extended period of time (2007-2010) this cycle should be even less.

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 10 Jan 2017

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 6 days
2017 total: 8 days (89%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 10 Jan 2017

What kind of increase in solar radiation are we talking about when spots are present?

[Ntxw]

What kind of increase in solar radiation are we talking about when spots are present?

Not sure about sun spots, but between solar max and solar min the suns output difference is a little under 0.10%. Small percentage but duration effects climate in different ways. From stuff I've read it can effect the processes that modulate ENSO, as well as QBO and the other things in the stratosphere.