Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Quixotic]

I empathize with winter starved folks. This is the longest stretch without much action since 97-99. Even 99-00 we had to wait until February for a sleet storm.

I think this is a regime flip. Kind of like the end of the 70s and the end of the 90s. PDO? ENSO? AMO? My bet is on the North Pacific. Let’s hope it means colder winters and cooler summers.

[Ntxw]

When in doubt, go with the JMA!



NAM is up the next hour or so. Still a way out for it but we're likely to continue to watch what kind of HP it shows in the Canadian Prairies

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.....They don't want to single out the GFS

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):
The remnants of the front will stall offshore, converting over to
a coastal trough by Thursday. Models are in agreement with keeping
this feature near the coast through at least Friday, with light
rain expected for the region, especially along the coast near the
trough. The forecast for the weekend and into the New Years
holiday is still muddled, as models have very different solutions.
The trough will dissipate as southerly return flow develops ahead
of the next front. This will bring a day of near normal
temperatures right around 70. The models all bring the cold front
back through the region later Sunday, with cooling in its wake.
Most models are keeping the coldest air well to the north, with
only a modest cool down behind the front. One model is way
different from this solution, and looking at how it arrives at
this solution, it needs to be discounted for this run. Using the
remaining model guidance, have shown a cool down through Sunday
evening, with a cool north wind at the dawn of the new year.
Overall confidence on this is still low for now, until models can
start agreeing closer to the event.

[Ntxw]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.....They don't want to single out the GFS

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):
The remnants of the front will stall offshore, converting over to
a coastal trough by Thursday. Models are in agreement with keeping
this feature near the coast through at least Friday, with light
rain expected for the region, especially along the coast near the
trough. The forecast for the weekend and into the New Years
holiday is still muddled, as models have very different solutions.
The trough will dissipate as southerly return flow develops ahead
of the next front. This will bring a day of near normal
temperatures right around 70. The models all bring the cold front
back through the region later Sunday, with cooling in its wake.
Most models are keeping the coldest air well to the north, with
only a modest cool down behind the front. One model is way
different from this solution, and looking at how it arrives at
this solution, it needs to be discounted for this run. Using the
remaining model guidance, have shown a cool down through Sunday
evening, with a cool north wind at the dawn of the new year.
Overall confidence on this is still low for now, until models can
start agreeing closer to the event.

The thing is we do have an agreement . It's all the other models vs the Euro. And even that the Euro does have 1048mb HP sitting up north. It weakens and slips it east/southeast and sends another weaker HP vs one big one

[Rgv20]

I will raise you the Navy Model!

[Cpv17]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.....They don't want to single out the GFS

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):
The remnants of the front will stall offshore, converting over to
a coastal trough by Thursday. Models are in agreement with keeping
this feature near the coast through at least Friday, with light
rain expected for the region, especially along the coast near the
trough. The forecast for the weekend and into the New Years
holiday is still muddled, as models have very different solutions.
The trough will dissipate as southerly return flow develops ahead
of the next front. This will bring a day of near normal
temperatures right around 70. The models all bring the cold front
back through the region later Sunday, with cooling in its wake.
Most models are keeping the coldest air well to the north, with
only a modest cool down behind the front. One model is way
different from this solution, and looking at how it arrives at
this solution, it needs to be discounted for this run. Using the
remaining model guidance, have shown a cool down through Sunday
evening, with a cool north wind at the dawn of the new year.
Overall confidence on this is still low for now, until models can
start agreeing closer to the event.

The thing is we do have an agreement . It's all the other models vs the Euro. And even that the Euro does have 1048mb HP sitting up north. It weakens and slips it east/southeast and sends another weaker HP vs one big one

Honestly the Euro doesn’t make sense to me with how it handles the trajectory of the cold especially from hour 96 to hour 120.

[Ntxw]

The FV3 (again experimental GFS replacement) is even colder than the OP GFS, as crazy as that is. Other than that it's similar to the parent run of the GFS. It has a crippling ice storm for SE Texas and parts of N Texas (and Austin)

[Ntxw]

Honestly the Euro doesn’t make sense to me with how it handles the trajectory of the cold especially from hour 96 to hour 120.

It can make sense and I even understand why the Euro does it. 500mb is not favorable to the southwest it's being shoved. But the good ole saying, cold dense air mass with big HP domes doesn't care. Plows right through it anyway.

If the Euro caves it will be because of this as it finally clicks to the air near the surface. If the GFS loses, then simply the air mass isn't as cold as projected.

[Cpv17]

The FV3 (again experimental GFS replacement) is even colder than the OP GFS, as crazy as that is. Other than that it's similar to the parent run of the GFS. It has a crippling ice storm for SE Texas and parts of N Texas (and Austin)

It seems like sometimes the closer you are to large bodies of water, the better odds you have at seeing precipitation. Those warm waters and cold air masses can really create some real problems on occasion. Just look at what happened yesterday in Erie.

[Brent]

The FV3 (again experimental GFS replacement) is even colder than the OP GFS, as crazy as that is. Other than that it's similar to the parent run of the GFS. It has a crippling ice storm for SE Texas and parts of N Texas (and Austin)

It seems like sometimes the closer you are to large bodies of water, the better odds you have at seeing precipitation. Those warm waters and cold air masses can really create some real problems on occasion. Just look at what happened yesterday in Erie.

they've had almost 100 inches of snow this month... That's almost their entire season average.

meanwhile we're here hoping for a few flakes.

[South Texas Storms]

The FV3 (again experimental GFS replacement) is even colder than the OP GFS, as crazy as that is. Other than that it's similar to the parent run of the GFS. It has a crippling ice storm for SE Texas and parts of N Texas (and Austin)

Can I have the link the that model please? Curious to see how to does. For me, the more models to compare the better!

Model runs over the next 24 hours will be big in determining how cold we get. Should start to hopefully get some agreement between the Euro and GFS by tomorrow night's runs.

[Ntxw]

Can I have the link the that model please? Curious to see how to does. For me, the more models to compare the better!

Model runs over the next 24 hours will be big in determining how cold we get. Should start to hopefully get some agreement between the Euro and GFS by tomorrow night's runs.

Sure thing

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3/fv3images.html

[orangeblood]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.....They don't want to single out the GFS

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):
The remnants of the front will stall offshore, converting over to
a coastal trough by Thursday. Models are in agreement with keeping
this feature near the coast through at least Friday, with light
rain expected for the region, especially along the coast near the
trough. The forecast for the weekend and into the New Years
holiday is still muddled, as models have very different solutions.
The trough will dissipate as southerly return flow develops ahead
of the next front. This will bring a day of near normal
temperatures right around 70. The models all bring the cold front
back through the region later Sunday, with cooling in its wake.
Most models are keeping the coldest air well to the north, with
only a modest cool down behind the front. One model is way
different from this solution, and looking at how it arrives at
this solution, it needs to be discounted for this run. Using the
remaining model guidance, have shown a cool down through Sunday
evening, with a cool north wind at the dawn of the new year.
Overall confidence on this is still low for now, until models can
start agreeing closer to the event.

The thing is we do have an agreement . It's all the other models vs the Euro. And even that the Euro does have 1048mb HP sitting up north. It weakens and slips it east/southeast and sends another weaker HP vs one big one

Right on Ntxw, the notion that the GFS is an outlier is ludicrous...the Euro is out on an island right now, all other models are siding more towards the GFS. Heck of a showdown unfolding over the next day or two

[Rgv20]

Can I have the link the that model please? Curious to see how to does. For me, the more models to compare the better!

Model runs over the next 24 hours will be big in determining how cold we get. Should start to hopefully get some agreement between the Euro and GFS by tomorrow night's runs.

Sure thing

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3/fv3images.html

if that were to verify the RGV would be in for one hell of a freeze!

[Brent]

I heard the FV3 is a possible replacement for the GFS in a few years? Be interesting definitely to compare if so

[Ntxw]

It's planned to be. They will likely merge the computing power at least

"NWS and NOAA Research scientists are phasing in the GFS with FV3; it is being run experimentally with the target of going operational in late 2019. Our new global model aims to deliver better, more timely forecasts to serve the growing needs of our forecasters and the weather enterprise."

https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3

[South Texas Storms]

It's planned to be. They will likely merge the computing power at least

"NWS and NOAA Research scientists are phasing in the GFS with FV3; it is being run experimentally with the target of going operational in late 2019. Our new global model aims to deliver better, more timely forecasts to serve the growing needs of our forecasters and the weather enterprise."

https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3

I've heard the FIM model was supposed to be a potential replacement for the GFS down the road as well.

https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet&domain=236&run_time=26+Dec+2017+-+12Z

[Ntxw]

It's planned to be. They will likely merge the computing power at least

"NWS and NOAA Research scientists are phasing in the GFS with FV3; it is being run experimentally with the target of going operational in late 2019. Our new global model aims to deliver better, more timely forecasts to serve the growing needs of our forecasters and the weather enterprise."

https://www.weather.gov/news/fv3

I've heard the FIM model was supposed to be a potential replacement for the GFS down the road as well.

https://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet&domain=236&run_time=26+Dec+2017+-+12Z

I think I read somewhere that was the plan back in the early 2010s but its forecasts were less than reliable. Advancement has made big strides since and it's not be able to move past the experimental phase.

[Ntxw]

And if you're wondering the FIM is pretty cold too around NY's day. Pretty comparable to the GFS

[Ntxw]

The 0z NAM towards the end of it's run is closer to the other models. Euro was already speeding the HP in faster flow in the northern US, while the NAM, like the GFS and CMC is still progressing from Canada