Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ntxw]

It might be another complex set up with something in the northern stream be it interact or not.

[South Texas Storms]

12Z GFS looking better, cutting off a piece of S/W energy similar to CMC

Definitely looking better!

Yep, I like the looks of the early 12z guidance so far. Would love it if the operational Euro and ensembles trended towards this solution in a few hours.

[TheProfessor]

Yall it finally happened. It finally freaking happened. I'm under a winter storm warning for the first time ever in Ohio! They're calling for 5-8" of snow with wind gusts of 40 mphs(possible upgrade to the B word?). It's going to be an interesting storm.

[harp]

It's just flat out not cold enough according to this run.

[stormlover2013]

yep, don't get yalls hopes up

[Ntxw]

You know us folks in north texas are rootin for y'all (down south)!

Of course, we've seen this play out for NTX with the Panhandle/Oklahoma winning out because it was colder there so maybe...just maybe a small part of us has a greater purpose

[Cpv17]

For you NTX folk



Canada loves you right now

[South Texas Storms]

12z UKMET trended deeper with the trough mid next week as well. Waiting to see the precip maps on weather.us here in the next 30 minutes.

[stormlover2013]

12z UKMET trended deeper with the trough mid next week as well. Waiting to see the precip maps on weather.us here in the next 30 minutes.

keep us updated

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I will be upset if we cant get the cold air with this setup. Seriously its mid- Jan!

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS has another round of snow for north and east Texas on Super Bowl Sunday.

[Ntxw]

12z UKMET trended deeper with the trough mid next week as well. Waiting to see the precip maps on weather.us here in the next 30 minutes.

keep us updated

It's qpf map looks little bit like the Canadian. A bit more and NW of the GFS but overall at 500mb it's similar.

[Ralph's Weather]

You have to be careful with those snow accumulation maps or the precip type maps. You don't know what algorithms they are using to decide precip type. I notice that the GFS is showing snow between College Station & Waco on Wednesday morning. However, if you look at the predicted sounding, it also has the freezing level way above 700mb (close to 12,000 ft). All the precip is forming in mid-level clouds then falling through a quite warm layer all the way down to the surface. This is NOT a setup for snow across SE Texas unless the air was about 10 deg colder.

One problem I've pointed out is that there is no front coming down. Not Arctic, and not even Canadian. If we were going to have a cold front move through the D-FW area tomorrow, then you'd think it would show up somewhere between Texas and Canada. It doesn't. When the upper trof passes, it will drag down some of the highly-modified Canadian air over the Plains, which really isn't very cold for January. We need a colder source region for any significant snow here.

http://wxman57.com/images/front.JPG

It doesn't appear that the source region is the issue..most of southern Canada is sitting at 15-20 C below normal (that is cold any way you slice it!). It's the upper air support that seems to be the issue, too progressive at this time, plenty of cold air though!!

Current anomalies across North America, check out Canada...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011806/gfs_T2ma_namer_2.png

The GEFS shows more of a -NAO developing next week which should slow things down. That along with the -EPO+PNA look being somewhat offshore should allow cold to build in the Plains and eastern US with each of the pinwheels from the stationary Hudson Bay PV. I think the late Jan pattern is actually not too bad for Texas snow lovers. It has been a long wait but the much anticipated pattern change is now only a few days away.

[mcheer23]

FV3-GFS, looks good.

[TheProfessor]

If I disappear for a while it's because this happened.




Add in 30-40 mph wind gusts and it would be a miracle if my power doesn't go out.

[spencer817]

FV3-GFS, looks good.

I love it, south and east of DFW. I know its a long ways out but once again for us DFW folks, just comical at this point.

[mcheer23]

Ensemble run was impressive with the cold and depth of the system.

[hriverajr]

FV3-GFS, looks good.

I love it, south and east of DFW. I know its a long ways out but once again for us DFW folks, just comical at this point.

Hey I'm in far SW Texas I feel your pain .... hehe..

[hriverajr]

FV3-GFS, looks good.

I love it, south and east of DFW. I know its a long ways out but once again for us DFW folks, just comical at this point.

Hey I'm in far SW Texas I feel your pain .... hehe.. In fact last year it snowed to my east and south. The air coming off Amistad melted our snowflakes

[Lagreeneyes03]

You know us folks in north texas are rootin for y'all (down south)!

Of course, we've seen this play out for NTX with the Panhandle/Oklahoma winning out because it was colder there so maybe...just maybe a small part of us has a greater purpose

No, No we're not Not unless we get ours too. Being selfish, haha, especially after last year everyone BUT us got snow/ice