Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MississippiWx]

New discussion from Jackson, MS is talking about a possible serious ice storm:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
840 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER EPISODE DEVELOPING FOR THE ARKLAMISS...

.UPDATE...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
FURTHER ADJ ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY ADJ THAT MAY BE NEEDED
IS TO WARM LOWS A TAD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FROM MERIDIAN
TO BROOKHAVEN. THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS MORE IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. EARLIER IN THE SHIFT...HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJ FOR
THIS EVENING AND THESE COOLER VALUES ARE WORKING OUT WITH MORE OF
FLAT TEMP RANGE INTO FRI MORNING.

AS FOR ANY NEW INFO ON THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT...ALL I HAVE
TO SAY IS...IT WILL BE COMPLEX. THIS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN WE HAVE
TO DEAL WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN (FZRA)...AS THAT CRITICAL TEMP RANGE
(31-33) DEGREES HOVERS AROUND THE MAX IN QPF AND ONE IS NOT SURE IF
ALL THAT LIQUID COULD BE REALIZED AS FZRA/SLEET OR FALLS AS A COLD
RAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THINGS PRETTY
WELL CONSIDERING THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE EVENT AND HOW THE PRECIP
LOOKS TO EVOLVE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. FOR NOW...CURRENT GRAPHICASTS DO
NOT MENTION ANY ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS AND WILL LEAVE THAT AS IS DUE TO
THE WIDE RANGING POSSIBILITIES. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH DOES
MENTION ACCUMULATIONS AND COVERS THINGS DECENTLY FOR NOW. LASTLY...THE
00Z NAM IS JUST STARTING TO COME IN AND IT IS NOT PAINTING A PRETTY
PICTURE. IT IS A TAD COLDER AT THE SFC AND HAS MORE QPF WITH IN A
CORRIDOR SURROUNDING THE TRACE THROUGH 12Z FRI. QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS
STRIPE RANGE FROM .1 TO 1.0 AND LOOKS TO ALL FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. THIS
NEW MODEL IS STRONGLY LEANING TOWARD A WORSE CASE SCENARIO. FOR
NOW...THIS IS JUST THE INITIAL SET OF NEW DATA WITH SEVERAL MORE
MODELS TO COME IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND WAIT FOR THE ENTIRE SUITE OF GUID TO ARRIVE
AND THEN HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT ANALYZE THE DATA AND THEN MAKE DECISIONS
ON IF/WHERE ANY WINTER STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED. A BETTER
HANDLE ON ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ALSO BE KNOW AFTER THE NEW GUID
ARRIVES. /CME/

[ksstormhunter]

Just ran 02Z SmartModel run for Jackson, MS. Showing a period of FZRA then changing over to a cold rain. Keep in mind temps hover 32-33, so it will be close. Just PM for any cities you want to check out, be more than happy to run and post.


http://smartwxmodel.net

[TideJoe]

New discussion from Jackson, MS is talking about a possible serious ice storm:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
840 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER EPISODE DEVELOPING FOR THE ARKLAMISS...

.UPDATE...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
FURTHER ADJ ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY ADJ THAT MAY BE NEEDED
IS TO WARM LOWS A TAD ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA FROM MERIDIAN
TO BROOKHAVEN. THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS MORE IN THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30. EARLIER IN THE SHIFT...HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJ FOR
THIS EVENING AND THESE COOLER VALUES ARE WORKING OUT WITH MORE OF
FLAT TEMP RANGE INTO FRI MORNING.

AS FOR ANY NEW INFO ON THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT...ALL I HAVE
TO SAY IS...IT WILL BE COMPLEX. THIS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN WE HAVE
TO DEAL WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN (FZRA)...AS THAT CRITICAL TEMP RANGE
(31-33) DEGREES HOVERS AROUND THE MAX IN QPF AND ONE IS NOT SURE IF
ALL THAT LIQUID COULD BE REALIZED AS FZRA/SLEET OR FALLS AS A COLD
RAIN. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THINGS PRETTY
WELL CONSIDERING THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE EVENT AND HOW THE PRECIP
LOOKS TO EVOLVE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. FOR NOW...CURRENT GRAPHICASTS DO
NOT MENTION ANY ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS AND WILL LEAVE THAT AS IS DUE TO
THE WIDE RANGING POSSIBILITIES. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH DOES
MENTION ACCUMULATIONS AND COVERS THINGS DECENTLY FOR NOW. LASTLY...THE
00Z NAM IS JUST STARTING TO COME IN AND IT IS NOT PAINTING A PRETTY
PICTURE. IT IS A TAD COLDER AT THE SFC AND HAS MORE QPF WITH IN A
CORRIDOR SURROUNDING THE TRACE THROUGH 12Z FRI. QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS
STRIPE RANGE FROM .1 TO 1.0 AND LOOKS TO ALL FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. THIS
NEW MODEL IS STRONGLY LEANING TOWARD A WORSE CASE SCENARIO. FOR
NOW...THIS IS JUST THE INITIAL SET OF NEW DATA WITH SEVERAL MORE
MODELS TO COME IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND WAIT FOR THE ENTIRE SUITE OF GUID TO ARRIVE
AND THEN HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT ANALYZE THE DATA AND THEN MAKE DECISIONS
ON IF/WHERE ANY WINTER STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED. A BETTER
HANDLE ON ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ALSO BE KNOW AFTER THE NEW GUID
ARRIVES. /CME/

Better go ahead and gas up in the morning..... while it isn't a high probability, that kind of ice would absolutely cripple the Pine Belt for a couple days. Wide spread power outages, etc..... better safe than sorry.

[BigB0882]

The NAM output shows freezing rain and then rain for Baton Rouge but the rain is all at 32 so I don't see how that wont be freezing rain. Those text outputs are really confusing sometimes.

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kbtr.txt

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well we are in the clear. Our local OCM just showed the Titan ice accum. map thru friday and shows all the ice a good two-three parishes nw of us. Says nothing much to worry about around BTR area and points east. Also says no rain until late in the afternoon or evening. Funny NWS says at rain anytime after 9am

[BigB0882]

Well we are in the clear. Our local OCM just showed the Titan ice accum. map thru friday and shows all the ice a good two-three parishes nw of us. Says nothing much to worry about around BTR area and points east.

Hey now, where's the positive attitude?! Believe!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sarcasm in that post. I am really starting to think we wont get/see much. Maybe a quick freezing rain shower on the onset and brief changeover sometime tomorrow night but thats about it.

[Lane]

Looks like next weeks storm will also be a cold rain for the deep south.

The rat must have been right today.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Huckster]

Sarcasm in that post. I am really starting to think we wont get/see much. Maybe a quick freezing rain shower on the onset and brief changeover sometime tomorrow night but thats about it.

I don't ever trust any of these local weather people. I barely trust the weather service given their big bust in their forecasts today. However if you look at the short range and long range radar out of Lake Charles and the long range radar out of Houston, there's clearly a well defined, growing, and seemingly more intense line of precipitation farther to the west than most of that spotty, ill defined stuff that's been moving across Terrebonne Parish and points east, and the leading edge of this line is starting to cross Marsh Island right now, so I doubt it will be until tomorrow afternoon or evening before precipitation begins here, and with temperatures already near or at freezing across the area, and given the low dew points right now, I suspect that once anything starts hitting the ground here, it will stick. I'm concerned this is not going to be a very minor event.

[LaBreeze]

Sarcasm in that post. I am really starting to think we wont get/see much. Maybe a quick freezing rain shower on the onset and brief changeover sometime tomorrow night but thats about it.

I don't ever trust any of these local weather people. I barely trust the weather service given their big bust in their forecasts today. However if you look at the short range and long range radar out of Lake Charles and the long range radar out of Houston, there's clearly a well defined, growing, and seemingly more intense line of precipitation farther to the west than most of that spotty, ill defined stuff that's been moving across Terrebonne Parish and points east, and the leading edge of this line is starting to cross Marsh Island right now, so I doubt it will be until tomorrow afternoon or evening before precipitation begins here, and with temperatures already near or at freezing across the area, and given the low dew points right now, I suspect that once anything starts hitting the ground here, it will stick. I'm concerned this is not going to be a very minor event.

Where are you Huckster? I'm in Vermilion Parish.

[Huckster]

LaBreeze - I'm in Baton Rouge, need to define my location better I guess lol

[BigB0882]

Looks like next weeks storm will also be a cold rain for the deep south.

The rat must have been right today.

That may or may not happen but are you going by the GFS? I'm not sure it has been showing anything for the deep South recently. The EURO is the one showing a big Gulf snow. Let's see what that looks like, it runs very soon. I prefer the GFS to not have it right now, if it did it would just take it all away! I'm most interested in temps, if they are cold enough then we can cross our fingers for a round of moisture. I don't think this Low bringing ice/snow/rain was seen until very recently, even though the cold temps were known much farther in advance.

[Huckster]

The latest GFS is maintaining a rather "troughy" look through most of next week with below normal temperatures almost everyday through Thursday along the Gulf Coast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey huckster, what part of baton rouge are you in? If we get nothing but a cold rain here might have to come over to your place to see some winter precip

[BigB0882]

Is Ivanhater around? Anyone have access to Euro and can tell us what it says for tomorrow and tomorrow night? Curious for myself but for everyone who, like me, is sitting on the cusp of a big ice storm or an all rain event.

[Huckster]

Hey huckster, what part of baton rouge are you in? If we get nothing but a cold rain here might have to come over to your place to see some winter precip

East Central part of the city limits? East of Sherwood and north of I-12.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

My wife and I bought our first house over in that area. Off old Hammond and millerville about 10 years ago. Seems like it was just a few years ago. My how time flies.

[BigB0882]

By the way, I find it a little interesting that it is currently 31 in Baton Rouge but points West are slightly above. 33 in Lafayette and 32 in Beaumont, TX. I thought the temps should gradually increase as you go East? A sign of bust on temps tomorrow or just a coincidence?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey there B. Don't think the temps will be a big bust tomorrow. Maybe a degree or two either way but nothing like today or last night. I really don't think it will matter much as we will more than likely end up with light freezimg rain mixed with very cold rain at best.

[Agua]

Ocean Springs enjoying a cold rain at 36F.