Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Tireman4]

I feel a PWC brief session coming this afternoon. Words are the meteorologists there have had too much Canadian bacon and throwing them out for some Frankfurters.

WOO HOO... Grey Goose, Frankfurters, Lucy and Winter Weather...Paaarrrttyyyyy

[Mr. Weather]

how confident are we in that this is going to be the model it follows its still like 5 days out so a lot can change though

[txagwxman]

Just because it is on the ECMWF doesn't mean it is going to happen. UKMET seems interesting, but not as cold as the ECMWF.

[Ntxw]

Just because it is on the ECMWF doesn't mean it is going to happen. UKMET seems interesting, but not as cold as the ECMWF.

I like the Euro though Measurable snow in Dallas, Waco, Austin, San Angelo, Tyler, and just to the north of Houston (barely). Let us soak that in for another 6 hours before it takes it away.

[MississippiWx]

Has the UKMET come out this afternoon? If so, does it look more like the Euro or more like it did this morning?

[Rgv20]

All I have to say is WOW!

[BigB0882]

Now THAT is what I am talking about! Share that cold with me, please! It is still the outlier but the trend is swinging back a little. Still very split camps. That would be single digits for my backyard (I think, is that map surface temps or higher up?)!

Can someone explain the big difference between say, the GFS, and the ECMWF? The GFS seems to pull the cold air straight down from central Canada and it goes due South and hardly goes East. Whereas the ECMWF and earlier runs of the Euro seemed to pull the cold air down from Eastern Canada and it ran Southwest into the States. What is one model seeing that the other isn't?

Also is the ECMWF the same as the UKMET?

[txagwxman]

Now THAT is what I am talking about! Share that cold with me, please! It is still the outlier but the trend is swinging back a little. Still very split camps. That would be single digits for my backyard (I think, is that map surface temps or higher up?)!

Can someone explain the big difference between say, the GFS, and the ECMWF? The GFS seems to pull the cold air straight down from central Canada and it goes due South and hardly goes East. Whereas the ECMWF and earlier runs of the Euro seemed to pull the cold air down from Eastern Canada and it ran Southwest into the States. What is one model seeing that the other isn't?

Also is the ECMWF the same as the UKMET?

UKMET is the British model. ECMWF is the European model, they are 2 different models. The UKMET is run only to 6 days.

[amawea]

They have already put in a 50% chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow here in north Arkansas starting Monday night. I love snow but hate freezing rain seeing as I work for a telecommunications company. The January/February ice storm of 2009 was enough to do me for a lifetime. We were without power at my house 21 days when that happened. Gas for a generator starts getting a little expensive. Also the work hours were a killer and in bitter cold conditions. And no, I didn't get any more pay because I am in a salary position.
Here is part of the noaa forecast for Randolph county where I live.

ARZ008-272215-
RANDOLPH-
940 AM CST THU JAN 27 2011

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW OR
SLEET. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE LOWER
30S IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN
A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.

[djmikey]

Found this in the Impact weather blog! Look at the graphic at the bottom on the winter weather threat! Nice!!

http://yourweatherblog.com/

[Portastorm]

STORM2K NEWS BRIEF
------------------------------
Storm2K News is reporting that at the Portastorm Weather Center afternoon briefing, the PWC director walked simply into the briefing room, sat down, smiled with a Cheshire cat-like grin, and pointed to his coffee mug. Storm2K News captured a photo of the mug, see below:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Tireman4]

STORM2K NEWS BRIEF
------------------------------
Storm2K News is reporting that at the Portastorm Weather Center afternoon briefing, the PWC director walked simply into the briefing room, sat down, smiled with a Cheshire cat-like grin, and pointed to his coffee mug. Storm2K News captured a photo of the mug, see below:

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/1008/imagescaafbwh6.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Woo Hoo...They are Turning "European" ( Singing it to the tune of 'Turning Japanese by The Vapors) at the PWC. Woo Hoo....please do not call the police...it is just wayward meterologists getting their freak on!!!

[srainhoutx]

OK folks. Hot off the presses, so to speak. A new updated video from our friends at Impact Weather...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[wxman57]

Ok, folks, I wanted to take a look at the 12Z runs today to see how they agreed with or differed from last night's run (Euro and GFS in particular). Here's what I see. The GFS appears to be making a well-known error in hanging up the Arctic air along the Red River on Monday night, waiting for the upper-level disturbance to pass before driving the cold air south. The Euro and Canadian don't appear to be making this "mistake". They both drive the Arctic air straight south to the Texas coast by sunrise Tuesday.

There's cold air in place across Texas on Tuesday and it appears that there will be a disturbance moving across the state on Tuesday. The Canadian is weakest with the disturbance, indicating little post-frontal precip. GFS is strongest (and slowest) of the 3 main models, holding energy back well to the west. But this is a common error with the GFS. The Euro, while aligned with the GFS on the 00Z run is now about 8 hours or so faster than the GFS with the passing upper-level feature. This does look more reasonable than the much slower GFS.

What does this mean for Texas? I think that Arctic air will be in place across the state with widespread precipitation on Tuesday. For us, it looks like most of that precip will be cold rain (temps in the 40s). But up north, say from the Hill Country through Waco to Dallas and eastward, temps may be sub-freezing. This could set the stage for a period of freezing rain changing to sleet and finally snow on Tuesday as the precip ends. Too early to estimate any amounts or precise locations of winter precip. I suppose we can't rule out the possibility that the Houston area could see some sleet and maybe (just MAYBE) a slight chance of a few snow flurries as the precip ends Tuesday afternoon/evening. By no means would I forecast such a thing at this time, though.

Now what happens after Tuesday? All 3 models drive the high center straight south to west-central Texas on Wed-Thu. Canadian and Euro are MUCH colder than the GFS. For example, the GFS predicts 850mb (5000ft) temps over Houston around +3F Thursday morning. The Canadian forecasts -8C and the Euro about -11C. That's a tremendous difference. I think the GFS is probably a good bit too "warm" with that forecast but I really can't tell just how cold it might get until the cold air is actually on the move south down the Plains on Sunday.

With it's very cold 850mb temps, the Euro is forecasting 2 meter temps of 20F for Houston on Thursday morning. This is about 5 degrees colder than it forecast with the last front, when IAH reached 26 degrees. GFS only forecasts upper 20s. I think lAH may record a low on Thursday of between 19 and 24 degrees based on a combo of the Euro/CMC projected temps. Not a 1989 or 1983 event by far, but the coldest air of the season.

Up "north", it's interesting to note that the Euro 2m temps around Abilene are 0F to a bit below zero for Thursday morning. So you folks in Dallas/Ft. Worth could see some quite cold air (10-15 degrees). Just a possibility for now, not my forecast.

[iorange55]

Lot of good information in that post! Thanks wxman.

[downsouthman1]

Lot of good information in that post! Thanks wxman.

Yes, most def. And thanks Wxman for not jumping on or off the ship yet. We probably won't have a good handle on this till Sunday or Monday. But I do like that fact that we've all been watching this since sometime last week, when longe range models saw something that seemed like a joke. Not so funny anymore. This could actually get serious.

[southerngale]

OK folks. Hot off the presses, so to speak. A new updated video from our friends at Impact Weather...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

*like*

Best video yet! The magic line is awfully close.

[CaptinCrunch]

Ok, folks, I wanted to take a look at the 12Z runs today to see how they agreed with or differed from last night's run (Euro and GFS in particular). Here's what I see. The GFS appears to be making a well-known error in hanging up the Arctic air along the Red River on Monday night, waiting for the upper-level disturbance to pass before driving the cold air south. The Euro and Canadian don't appear to be making this "mistake". They both drive the Arctic air straight south to the Texas coast by sunrise Tuesday.

There's cold air in place across Texas on Tuesday and it appears that there will be a disturbance moving across the state on Tuesday. The Canadian is weakest with the disturbance, indicating little post-frontal precip. GFS is strongest (and slowest) of the 3 main models, holding energy back well to the west. But this is a common error with the GFS. The Euro, while aligned with the GFS on the 00Z run is now about 8 hours or so faster than the GFS with the passing upper-level feature. This does look more reasonable than the much slower GFS.

What does this mean for Texas? I think that Arctic air will be in place across the state with widespread precipitation on Tuesday. For us, it looks like most of that precip will be cold rain (temps in the 40s). But up north, say from the Hill Country through Waco to Dallas and eastward, temps may be sub-freezing. This could set the stage for a period of freezing rain changing to sleet and finally snow on Tuesday as the precip ends. Too early to estimate any amounts or precise locations of winter precip. I suppose we can't rule out the possibility that the Houston area could see some sleet and maybe (just MAYBE) a slight chance of a few snow flurries as the precip ends Tuesday afternoon/evening. By no means would I forecast such a thing at this time, though.

Now what happens after Tuesday? All 3 models drive the high center straight south to west-central Texas on Wed-Thu. Canadian and Euro are MUCH colder than the GFS. For example, the GFS predicts 850mb (5000ft) temps over Houston around +3F Thursday morning. The Canadian forecasts -8C and the Euro about -11C. That's a tremendous difference. I think the GFS is probably a good bit too "warm" with that forecast but I really can't tell just how cold it might get until the cold air is actually on the move south down the Plains on Sunday.

With it's very cold 850mb temps, the Euro is forecasting 2 meter temps of 20F for Houston on Thursday morning. This is about 5 degrees colder than it forecast with the last front, when IAH reached 26 degrees. GFS only forecasts upper 20s. I think lAH may record a low on Thursday of between 19 and 24 degrees based on a combo of the Euro/CMC projected temps. Not a 1989 or 1983 event by far, but the coldest air of the season.

Up "north", it's interesting to note that the Euro 2m temps around Abilene are 0F to a bit below zero for Thursday morning. So you folks in Dallas/Ft. Worth could see some quite cold air (10-15 degrees). Just a possibility for now, not my forecast.

Bingo, I said earlier today that the GFS was off on the arctic air passage across NTX, and it was way to slow with it. Arctic air should be well in place across much of NTX by late Monday evening with temps dropping below freezing at the surface by midnight. By early Tuesday morning predawn hrs light freezing rain should already be in place before changing to sleet then snow across the DFW area.

The BIG concern I have is how much freezing rain will accure before the upper layers cool off to bring that change over to sleet/all snow. I don't see this being a large snow maker, maybe 2-3 inches, but it's the ice that's going to make things bad.

All of this is subject to change by Monday but this is my best guess at what might happen, so all you Green Bay fans make sure you bring your heavy coats next week, cause it will feel like home down here.....lol



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS product

[TeamPlayersBlue]

After all the teases from this winter, i will not be a happy camper if this is a 37 degree rain for Houston:(

[srainhoutx]

FYI: More Pacific Winter RECON ahead for Sunday...

NOUS42 KNHC 271700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST THU 27 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-058

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNASSSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. P73/ 43.9N 172.3E(DROP 11)/ 30/1200Z