Texas Winter 2016-2017

[TheProfessor]

Bout to get hit by a Severe Thunderstorm in January

[dhweather]

Aside from front (or lackthereof from the GFS) blowtorch through 25th sans strong Pacific systems. Signs of jet retraction and possible +PNA/-EPO couplet after

When do the "winter cancel" posts come in?

Winter has been canceled as per Wxman57. LOL...oh yeah...Cat 5 in the Gulf..

I see what you did there.

[bubba hotep]

Aside from front (or lackthereof from the GFS) blowtorch through 25th sans strong Pacific systems. Signs of jet retraction and possible +PNA/-EPO couplet after

Where do you see the +PNA coming from and when? If there is a true PJR, then there will probably be a -PNA period associated with the -EPO. When the jet retracts heights rise in the N. Pacific and you can trace the PV back to the -PNA pattern that typically last for 5 to 10 days after the retraction. Until the -ENSO background state truly breaks down, it's rinse and repeat. Maybe the cycle shortens and there will be two big cold snaps in February? The wildcard could be the MJO, if it can truly get going and shakeup the background state. Only problem, the Phase 1 -2 progression that some of the models are showing also lines up with the PJE and PJR interference. For whatever reason, that convection pattern doesn't actually translate into a propagating MJO. Obviously, nothing is set in stone and there could be a +PNA/-EPO period coming along with a PJR or maybe the pattern finally breaks and there is sustained cold in February.

[Brent]

GFS has a slow moving squall line Monday now right along the I-35 corridor

[bubba hotep]

There is no SSW or MMW in the upcoming 10 days. Far from it actually. EPV indicates enhanced poleward heat flux, but it will be insufficient / well below the necessary threshold to induce zonal wind reversal down to 60N/10hpa. There is lingering wave 1 forcing from the earlier attack and current wave 2 which is converging on the vortex, but all it achieves is a virtual energy balance on either side of the pole because the amplitudes are grossly insufficient. So the resultant is a more elongated 10hpa vortex by day 10-12. Its future orientation will continue to preclude protracted blocking in the NAM/NAO domains. I wouldn't anticipate much help from those indices for at least 2-3 weeks.

I think there is a bit of underestimation regarding the upcoming medium term warm period. The positive EPO surge and contemporaneous low geopotential height field will empty North America of cold air for at least 10 days. January temperature departures will probably be at least +2 for our area.

Now, beyond that time frame, I have alluded to the possibility of February's mean pattern having the best opportunity of all three months to diverge into a genuine winter pattern. If we are being honest here, there has been no genuine, protracted winter pattern lasting more than 4 or 5 days so far thia winter.

However - and I believe this is partially related to the rapidly decaying Nina - I am noticing an alteration in the walker cell orientation, likely beginning Jan 25th, which should initiate an upper divergence pattern more reflective of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The resultant alterations will induce lowering geopotential heights in the N PAC with an increase in atmospheric angular momentum by Day 20.

The tropospheric pattern should therefore evolve into one which promotes more ridging in the areas that have seen troughing thus far -- British Columbia, NW US. These changes will take several days to realize, but the warm pattern should be mostly complete by the last 3 or 4 days of January. My opinion on snowfall remains that same, namely that it is hostile for the coast through late month. A light accumulation is possible.

February has an increasing probability of actually finishing normal or even below normal temp wise in the Northeast due mostly to anticipated changes upstream. The question becomes, can we force a SSW in February? I think it will be difficult, but not impossible, this year due to background conditions. With tha being said, I expect February will feature more transient neg NAO periods than winter thus far, due to rossby wave jet alteration in the NATL and changes w/ walker cells.

Overall, this is the most interested I have been in the winter pattern to date. The possibility exists for a sustained colder than normal regime in the Northeast for February. It should be Pacific driven with occasional Atlantic cooperation, and a low likelihood of SSW

This is from ISOTHERM who posts at American weather. His real name is Tom. Supposed to be good. Ntxw, what do you think about this?

ISOTHERM is a quality poster at AMWX and makes some of the most detailed post. I agree with him on the coming warm period but think he might be keying on some transient features as signs of a true pattern change. Only time will tell, but I am a bit skeptical that we will see any rapid changes to the Nina background state. Also, as NTWX pointed out, that post is pretty NEcentric.

[bubba hotep]

GFS has a slow moving squall line Monday now right along the I-35 corridor

I'll take that over an ice storm any day!

[Ntxw]

Brent's LaLaLand thread the needle storm via dynamics!



I'll take the two coast ridges for 500

[Golf7070]

There is no SSW or MMW in the upcoming 10 days. Far from it actually. EPV indicates enhanced poleward heat flux, but it will be insufficient / well below the necessary threshold to induce zonal wind reversal down to 60N/10hpa. There is lingering wave 1 forcing from the earlier attack and current wave 2 which is converging on the vortex, but all it achieves is a virtual energy balance on either side of the pole because the amplitudes are grossly insufficient. So the resultant is a more elongated 10hpa vortex by day 10-12. Its future orientation will continue to preclude protracted blocking in the NAM/NAO domains. I wouldn't anticipate much help from those indices for at least 2-3 weeks.

I think there is a bit of underestimation regarding the upcoming medium term warm period. The positive EPO surge and contemporaneous low geopotential height field will empty North America of cold air for at least 10 days. January temperature departures will probably be at least +2 for our area.

Now, beyond that time frame, I have alluded to the possibility of February's mean pattern having the best opportunity of all three months to diverge into a genuine winter pattern. If we are being honest here, there has been no genuine, protracted winter pattern lasting more than 4 or 5 days so far thia winter.

However - and I believe this is partially related to the rapidly decaying Nina - I am noticing an alteration in the walker cell orientation, likely beginning Jan 25th, which should initiate an upper divergence pattern more reflective of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The resultant alterations will induce lowering geopotential heights in the N PAC with an increase in atmospheric angular momentum by Day 20.

The tropospheric pattern should therefore evolve into one which promotes more ridging in the areas that have seen troughing thus far -- British Columbia, NW US. These changes will take several days to realize, but the warm pattern should be mostly complete by the last 3 or 4 days of January. My opinion on snowfall remains that same, namely that it is hostile for the coast through late month. A light accumulation is possible.

February has an increasing probability of actually finishing normal or even below normal temp wise in the Northeast due mostly to anticipated changes upstream. The question becomes, can we force a SSW in February? I think it will be difficult, but not impossible, this year due to background conditions. With tha being said, I expect February will feature more transient neg NAO periods than winter thus far, due to rossby wave jet alteration in the NATL and changes w/ walker cells.

Overall, this is the most interested I have been in the winter pattern to date. The possibility exists for a sustained colder than normal regime in the Northeast for February. It should be Pacific driven with occasional Atlantic cooperation, and a low likelihood of SSW

This is from ISOTHERM who posts at American weather. His real name is Tom. Supposed to be good. Ntxw, what do you think about this?

ISOTHERM is a quality poster at AMWX and makes some of the most detailed post. I agree with him on the coming warm period but think he might be keying on some transient features as signs of a true pattern change. Only time will tell, but I am a bit skeptical that we will see any rapid changes to the Nina background state. Also, as NTWX pointed out, that post is pretty NEcentric.

He is one of the best imo. He is up there with the top forecasters. I actually have talked to him over the phone. Imo, I think if we get out of the niña background state , we will be much better. Walker cell is slowly weakening and a little help is better than nothing at this point. I personally don't want another transient pattern if it turns cold again. I think that would help to get some type of ssw or mmw event. Do you think we go back to cold Bubba? Will it be the same as we have seen already? Imo, I think it may be different with things changing in pacific, but I could be incorrect

[Brent]

Brent's LaLaLand thread the needle storm via dynamics!

I'll take the two coast ridges for 500

oh that thing looks interesting... my interest is raised... At 300 hours there's a hint of snow in north DFW

[Portastorm]

I will say this ... it cannot rain soon enough if you ask me. We are in the midst of the one of the worst cedar fever seasons here in south central Texas in decades! That is what the experts are saying. And considering all of the sick people I'm seeing daily ... and how crappy I feel ... this warm, windy weather is just spreading the misery around exponentially. Once those wonderful rains fall this weekend we can clean out the atmosphere, at least for a little while.

I'm not sure how many other parts of Texas deal with this ... but I'm telling ya, it's a BIG deal here.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I will say this ... it cannot rain soon enough if you ask me. We are in the midst of the one of the worst cedar fever seasons here in south central Texas in decades! That is what the experts are saying. And considering all of the sick people I'm seeing daily ... and how crappy I feel ... this warm, windy weather is just spreading the misery around exponentially. Once those wonderful rains fall this weekend we can clean out the atmosphere, at least for a little while.

I'm not sure how many other parts of Texas deal with this ... but I'm telling ya, it's a BIG deal here.

I saw that twitter video of them shaking a cedar tree and all the POLLEN flying off. Sweet Mother of God.

[orangeblood]

I will say this ... it cannot rain soon enough if you ask me. We are in the midst of the one of the worst cedar fever seasons here in south central Texas in decades! That is what the experts are saying. And considering all of the sick people I'm seeing daily ... and how crappy I feel ... this warm, windy weather is just spreading the misery around exponentially. Once those wonderful rains fall this weekend we can clean out the atmosphere, at least for a little while.

I'm not sure how many other parts of Texas deal with this ... but I'm telling ya, it's a BIG deal here.

No doubt Porta, it seems like every other person I come in contact with is affected by the Cedar

[gboudx]

I will say this ... it cannot rain soon enough if you ask me. We are in the midst of the one of the worst cedar fever seasons here in south central Texas in decades! That is what the experts are saying. And considering all of the sick people I'm seeing daily ... and how crappy I feel ... this warm, windy weather is just spreading the misery around exponentially. Once those wonderful rains fall this weekend we can clean out the atmosphere, at least for a little while.

I'm not sure how many other parts of Texas deal with this ... but I'm telling ya, it's a BIG deal here.

It's up here too. DFW NWS even has a graphic. I can't tell if I have a cold, or if it's this stuff. I've been doing allergy immunotherapy since May and I was hoping it would be working by now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don't experience Cedar and by the sounds of it, Thank God I don't!

My Allergy season is Spring time in Houston. I just pop a Zyrtec and I'm good to go.

[weatherdude1108]

I will say this ... it cannot rain soon enough if you ask me. We are in the midst of the one of the worst cedar fever seasons here in south central Texas in decades! That is what the experts are saying. And considering all of the sick people I'm seeing daily ... and how crappy I feel ... this warm, windy weather is just spreading the misery around exponentially. Once those wonderful rains fall this weekend we can clean out the atmosphere, at least for a little while.

I'm not sure how many other parts of Texas deal with this ... but I'm telling ya, it's a BIG deal here.

I feel blessed, because I'm one of the ones not affected by Cedar. Not even taking allergy medication. So sorry for all that are affected by it.

It is the Spring Oak pollen that does me in sometimes, when everyone else is feeling better when Cedar is done.

[Ntxw]

I feel the cedar. Pollen count is high and its all juniper ashei. It is worse on warm winter days with a southwest wind (for dfw folks) and I take otc pill everyday for it. But on very high count days, it can be miserable. Usually you know it is cedar fever if most of the symptoms is neck up

If you have ever seen those cedar trees release pollen..it can look like a coming plague

[weatherdude1108]

I feel the cedar. Pollen count is high and its all juniper ashei. It is worse on warm winter days with a southwest wind (for dfw folks) and I take otc pill everyday for it. But on very high count days, it can be miserable. Usually you know it is cedar fever if most of the symptoms is neck up

If you have ever seen those cedar trees release pollen..it can look like a coming plague

Oh yeah, it looks awful when you see it. I notice it as a nuisance in my throat and dryness in my nose at times, and it just feels different. The vehicles are constantly dusty.

[bubba hotep]

There is no SSW or MMW in the upcoming 10 days. Far from it actually. EPV indicates enhanced poleward heat flux, but it will be insufficient / well below the necessary threshold to induce zonal wind reversal down to 60N/10hpa. There is lingering wave 1 forcing from the earlier attack and current wave 2 which is converging on the vortex, but all it achieves is a virtual energy balance on either side of the pole because the amplitudes are grossly insufficient. So the resultant is a more elongated 10hpa vortex by day 10-12. Its future orientation will continue to preclude protracted blocking in the NAM/NAO domains. I wouldn't anticipate much help from those indices for at least 2-3 weeks.

I think there is a bit of underestimation regarding the upcoming medium term warm period. The positive EPO surge and contemporaneous low geopotential height field will empty North America of cold air for at least 10 days. January temperature departures will probably be at least +2 for our area.

Now, beyond that time frame, I have alluded to the possibility of February's mean pattern having the best opportunity of all three months to diverge into a genuine winter pattern. If we are being honest here, there has been no genuine, protracted winter pattern lasting more than 4 or 5 days so far thia winter.

However - and I believe this is partially related to the rapidly decaying Nina - I am noticing an alteration in the walker cell orientation, likely beginning Jan 25th, which should initiate an upper divergence pattern more reflective of an El Nino in the tropical Pacific. The resultant alterations will induce lowering geopotential heights in the N PAC with an increase in atmospheric angular momentum by Day 20.

The tropospheric pattern should therefore evolve into one which promotes more ridging in the areas that have seen troughing thus far -- British Columbia, NW US. These changes will take several days to realize, but the warm pattern should be mostly complete by the last 3 or 4 days of January. My opinion on snowfall remains that same, namely that it is hostile for the coast through late month. A light accumulation is possible.

February has an increasing probability of actually finishing normal or even below normal temp wise in the Northeast due mostly to anticipated changes upstream. The question becomes, can we force a SSW in February? I think it will be difficult, but not impossible, this year due to background conditions. With tha being said, I expect February will feature more transient neg NAO periods than winter thus far, due to rossby wave jet alteration in the NATL and changes w/ walker cells.

Overall, this is the most interested I have been in the winter pattern to date. The possibility exists for a sustained colder than normal regime in the Northeast for February. It should be Pacific driven with occasional Atlantic cooperation, and a low likelihood of SSW

This is from ISOTHERM who posts at American weather. His real name is Tom. Supposed to be good. Ntxw, what do you think about this?

ISOTHERM is a quality poster at AMWX and makes some of the most detailed post. I agree with him on the coming warm period but think he might be keying on some transient features as signs of a true pattern change. Only time will tell, but I am a bit skeptical that we will see any rapid changes to the Nina background state. Also, as NTWX pointed out, that post is pretty NEcentric.

He is one of the best imo. He is up there with the top forecasters. I actually have talked to him over the phone. Imo, I think if we get out of the niña background state , we will be much better. Walker cell is slowly weakening and a little help is better than nothing at this point. I personally don't want another transient pattern if it turns cold again. I think that would help to get some type of ssw or mmw event. Do you think we go back to cold Bubba? Will it be the same as we have seen already? Imo, I think it may be different with things changing in pacific, but I could be incorrect

We will certainly get cold again but obviously the duration is the question. I agree with many of the posters on here that are pointing towards the end of January for a return.

[Ntxw]

I have to say, Hudson Bay blocking is mildly interesting after the 20th. Starting to see subtle hints of Aleutian ridging late from the EPS end of the month

[orangeblood]

I have to say, Hudson Bay blocking is mildly interesting after the 20th. Starting to see subtle hints of Aleutian ridging late from the EPS end of the month

Somewhat interesting but according to the ENS Members, the Arctic Air is long gone by the time the block gets established...only cooler Pacific air involved in the pattern over the Lower 48 - massive positive anomalies in western Canada, which typically doesn't bode well for us (common theme last winter)