Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011312/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

Yeah. That’s what I’m concerned about. The 12z GEFS started showing the SE ridge extending into ETX around Jan 24th and extended it throughout the rest of its run till the 29th. That was about the 3rd run in a row it started showing something similar.

[Cpv17]

Also need it to become part of the ECR as well, the ECR is better for the cold here and towards Louisiana than the SE Ridge itself.

The thought of a McFarland Signature with some ECR would be crazy exciting. Not sure I’ve ever experienced a setup like that. Not sure when was the last time we experienced a McFarland Signature.

McFarland's signature is just a type of pattern. It's basically the pattern recognition of -EPO before we had indexes with a cold air source. Nothing too spectacular about it, he just noted a certain 500mb set up would send cold air south to deep south Texas. Most of our outbreaks of big cold are variations of it.

Gotcha. I just saw some deep digging towards the Baja and got excited about that. Doesn’t seem to last very long, though.

[869MB]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011312/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

Yeah. That’s what I’m concerned about. The 12z GEFS started showing the SE ridge extending into ETX around Jan 24th and extended it throughout the rest of its run till the 29th. That was about the 3rd run in a row it started showing something similar.

Even if modeled somewhat correctly at this range, I don’t think a SE Ridge would be strong enough to shunt an anonymously cold pool of air to the west of SE TX for too long. Eventually, I would believe the western edge of the ridge would erode enough to allow you to get some colder air eventually, though I understand that’s not guaranteed if it noses too far west. Plus, if the overall teleconnections cooperate, there may be a well-timed synoptic setup or two that will introduce moisture into the region corresponding with the colder air before it retreats. So like it has already been mentioned, a Feb 2021 or Dec 2022 air mass wouldn’t be necessary to deliver you the goods that will fulfill some of your winter weather needs.

Yeah I know that’s a lot of and, if, & buts this far out so we’ll just have to see if a weather pattern can deliver the cold air along with some lift over the state. I personally wouldn’t mind the SE Ridge to setup just to our east where mid/upper level disturbances can approach the region and slow down and deliver us some sufficient precipitation, frozen or liquid. I need more rain as does South Central TX.

[Itryatgolf]

What's interesting is people are really hyping this stratospheric warming event up more than ever. My concern is if it indeed happens, will it be too late to make a difference for us that late in the season? We can get ull's that are strong, but higher sun angle is a big factor later we go into winter.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What's interesting is people are really hyping this stratospheric warming event up more than ever. My concern is if it indeed happens, will it be too late to make a difference for us that late in the season? We can get ull's that are strong, but higher sun angle is a big factor later we go into winter.

Not uncommon to get Winter weather the first half of March and I’ve received some in April too. I think it was 2015?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023011312/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

Yeah. That’s what I’m concerned about. The 12z GEFS started showing the SE ridge extending into ETX around Jan 24th and extended it throughout the rest of its run till the 29th. That was about the 3rd run in a row it started showing something similar.

I don’t hate that look at all. Can you say baroclinicity? As the anomalous cold pushes east, it’s perfect.

[Cpv17]

What's interesting is people are really hyping this stratospheric warming event up more than ever. My concern is if it indeed happens, will it be too late to make a difference for us that late in the season? We can get ull's that are strong, but higher sun angle is a big factor later we go into winter.

I’ve been wondering about this as well because I’ve heard there could be a lag time of up to 2 months..

[Itryatgolf]

What's interesting is people are really hyping this stratospheric warming event up more than ever. My concern is if it indeed happens, will it be too late to make a difference for us that late in the season? We can get ull's that are strong, but higher sun angle is a big factor later we go into winter.

I’ve been wondering about this as well because I’ve heard there could be a lag time of up to 2 months..

They are hard to predict. It sometimes take alot of warming to fully split the pv but stretching is good enough I suppose but if Europe gets the cold, we screwed lol.

[Ntxw]

What's interesting is people are really hyping this stratospheric warming event up more than ever. My concern is if it indeed happens, will it be too late to make a difference for us that late in the season? We can get ull's that are strong, but higher sun angle is a big factor later we go into winter.

I’ve been wondering about this as well because I’ve heard there could be a lag time of up to 2 months..

If you're waiting for the stratwarm to deliver cold, you'll be waiting for the wrong reasons. It will never come with it, that's not its purpose here.

[Cpv17]

What's interesting is people are really hyping this stratospheric warming event up more than ever. My concern is if it indeed happens, will it be too late to make a difference for us that late in the season? We can get ull's that are strong, but higher sun angle is a big factor later we go into winter.

I’ve been wondering about this as well because I’ve heard there could be a lag time of up to 2 months..

If you're waiting for the stratwarm to deliver cold, you'll be waiting for the wrong reasons. It will never come with it, that's not its purpose here.

Well if that’s the case I can just toss everything I know about them out the window lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’ve been wondering about this as well because I’ve heard there could be a lag time of up to 2 months..

If you're waiting for the stratwarm to deliver cold, you'll be waiting for the wrong reasons. It will never come with it, that's not its purpose here.

Well if that’s the case I can just toss everything I know about them out the window lol

SSW’s affect the jet stream more than anything. As the r cold air sinks into the troposphere from the strat in a SSW it affects the path or shape of the jet hence changing our weather.

As the waves move up in the atmosphere, they reach the Stratosphere where easterly winds occur and they stop there. When they break, they give the easterlies steroids and bring them lower and this happens repeatedly until they reach the troposphere, where we get our weather triggers.

[Ntxw]

If you're waiting for the stratwarm to deliver cold, you'll be waiting for the wrong reasons. It will never come with it, that's not its purpose here.

Well if that’s the case I can just toss everything I know about them out the window lol

SSW’s affect the jet stream more than anything. As the r cold air sinks into the troposphere from the strat in a SSW it affects the path or shape of the jet hence changing our weather.

As the waves move up in the atmosphere, they reach the Stratosphere where easterly winds occur and they stop there. When they break, they give the easterlies steroids and bring them lower and this happens repeatedly until they reach the troposphere, where we get our weather triggers.

When talking about a major pattern changing SSW, what we are thinking of is ++AO. It gets shaken up by the stratwarm to get a -AO and change the jet stream configuration. However we're already in the -AO, doesn't do much more than keep the -AO the rest of the winter, which it looks like it's doing anyway. Everything has been driven by the troposphere.

[Quixotic]

Only thing to worry about is the EPO. Even if th AO and NAO is positive we would get quick shots.

[Iceresistance]

What's interesting is people are really hyping this stratospheric warming event up more than ever. My concern is if it indeed happens, will it be too late to make a difference for us that late in the season? We can get ull's that are strong, but higher sun angle is a big factor later we go into winter.

Not uncommon to get Winter weather the first half of March and I’ve received some in April too. I think it was 2015?

Yes, March 2015 had a LOT of snow in the early part.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Siberian plunge of air into southern regions of china a week out. Showing a huge high coming down.

This is good for -EPO, i think.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1614044765032689664

[Ntxw]

FYI several of the models are very close to a winter storm next weekend for the southern plains. Storm ejection, moisture return, and trough orientation matter.

Could be looking at several back to back to back.

[Iceresistance]

FYI several of the models are very close to a winter storm next weekend for the southern plains. Storm ejection, moisture return, and trough orientation matter.

Could be looking at several back to back to back.

The 12z GFS is clearly showing this, it could be bluffing though.

[Ntxw]

FYI several of the models are very close to a winter storm next weekend for the southern plains. Storm ejection, moisture return, and trough orientation matter.

Could be looking at several back to back to back.

The 12z GFS is clearly showing this, it could be bluffing though.

It isn't just the GFS. The overall digging western trough is ripe for our analogs of ULL snows. Magic is El Paso or Northern Mex ejection with some cold air, don't need a ton.

GFS is beautiful for us though .

[ThunderSleetDreams]

FYI several of the models are very close to a winter storm next weekend for the southern plains. Storm ejection, moisture return, and trough orientation matter.

Could be looking at several back to back to back.

The 12z GFS is clearly showing this, it could be bluffing though.

It isn't just the GFS. The overall digging western trough is ripe for our analogs of ULL snows. Magic is El Paso or Northern Mex ejection with some cold air, don't need a ton.

GFS is beautiful for us though .

I call it the Juarez Bowling Ball league and it’s JV sister, the Brownsville Coastal Lowcapades