Texas Winter 2010-2011

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well I sure hope ya'll get all your winter wishes next week. If things do pan out as wxman and others are currently thinking, would you be so generous as to pass a little on over to us in LA if you don't mind. Our NWS has gone all in regarding the GFS with highs tues in the low 70's and in the upper 50's wed. I am sure they will change it as they always do but they pretty much threw out the EURO and Canadian models for now

[WacoWx]

i'm just glad Waco was even mentioned in that "forecast". I have one more week of work here and nothing would please me more than a couple of bad weather days to send me off in style.

[orangeblood]

Ok, folks, I wanted to take a look at the 12Z runs today to see how they agreed with or differed from last night's run (Euro and GFS in particular). Here's what I see. The GFS appears to be making a well-known error in hanging up the Arctic air along the Red River on Monday night, waiting for the upper-level disturbance to pass before driving the cold air south. The Euro and Canadian don't appear to be making this "mistake". They both drive the Arctic air straight south to the Texas coast by sunrise Tuesday.

There's cold air in place across Texas on Tuesday and it appears that there will be a disturbance moving across the state on Tuesday. The Canadian is weakest with the disturbance, indicating little post-frontal precip. GFS is strongest (and slowest) of the 3 main models, holding energy back well to the west. But this is a common error with the GFS. The Euro, while aligned with the GFS on the 00Z run is now about 8 hours or so faster than the GFS with the passing upper-level feature. This does look more reasonable than the much slower GFS

What does this mean for Texas? I think that Arctic air will be in place across the state with widespread precipitation on Tuesday. For us, it looks like most of that precip will be cold rain (temps in the 40s). But up north, say from the Hill Country through Waco to Dallas and eastward, temps may be sub-freezing. This could set the stage for a period of freezing rain changing to sleet and finally snow on Tuesday as the precip ends. Too early to estimate any amounts or precise locations of winter precip. I suppose we can't rule out the possibility that the Houston area could see some sleet and maybe (just MAYBE) a slight chance of a few snow flurries as the precip ends Tuesday afternoon/evening. By no means would I forecast such a thing at this time, though.

Now what happens after Tuesday? All 3 models drive the high center straight south to west-central Texas on Wed-Thu. Canadian and Euro are MUCH colder than the GFS. For example,
the GFS predicts 850mb (5000ft) temps over Houston around +3F Thursday morning. The Canadian forecasts -8C and the Euro about -11C. That's a tremendous difference. I think the GFS is probably a good bit too "warm" with that forecast but I really can't tell just how cold it might get until the cold air is actually on the move south down the Plains on Sunday.

With it's very cold 850mb temps, the Euro is forecasting 2 meter temps of 20F for Houston on Thursday morning. This is about 5 degrees colder than it forecast with the last front, when IAH reached 26 degrees. GFS only forecasts upper 20s. I think lAH may record a low on Thursday of between 19 and 24 degrees based on a combo of the Euro/CMC projected temps. Not a 1989 or 1983 event by far, but the coldest air of the season.

Up "north", it's interesting to note that the Euro 2m temps around Abilene are 0F to a bit below zero for Thursday morning. So you folks in Dallas/Ft. Worth could see some quite cold air (10-15 degrees). Just a possibility for now, not my forecast.

Thanks for the insight wxman57, glad you've jump on the bandwagon. Welcome aboard!!!

As has been mentioned before, it made no sense that the GFS was holding that kind of airmass up in Oklahoma and it appears the Canadian might be making a similar mistake. The arctic boundary should move out in front of the trough, with a storm moving along it's boundary. Everything to the north and west of this boundary should see significant accumulations of snow and/or ice.


[b] The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS product[b]

[gpsnowman]

CBS 11 here in Dallas updated their weather page forecast online. Huge changes compared to this morning. Positive signs all over. The met on Impactweather sounded like it was going to happen. Bring it on!

[benrayrog]

Just curious what the confidence level is for those of you on here reading the charts and models as to a winter weather event materializing. Let's say on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being the highest level of confidence.

[Brandon8181]

Just curious what the confidence level is for those of you on here reading the charts and models as to a winter weather event materializing. Let's say on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being the highest level of confidence.

I would say conservatively a 3 to 4.... but actually with the models and eveyrthing closer to a 4.

[Portastorm]

Just curious what the confidence level is for those of you on here reading the charts and models as to a winter weather event materializing. Let's say on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being the highest level of confidence.

25?

Just kidding ... this is a serious Portastorm Weather Center guess as it depends on your location. As of right now:

Panhandle -- 4
North Texas (Wichita Falls-DFW-Tyler) -- 3
San Angelo to Waco to College Station -- 2.5
Austin/San Antonio -- 2
SE Texas -- 1.5

[wxman57]

Just curious what the confidence level is for those of you on here reading the charts and models as to a winter weather event materializing. Let's say on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being the highest level of confidence.

I would say conservatively a 3 to 4.... but actually with the models and everything closer to a 4.

Depends on how you quantify an "event". If that's a significant freezing rain/snow event - icing of roads, travel significantly interrupted, then I'd be in the 2 or 2.5 range presently. Chance of any winter precip at all across Texas and I'd be in the 4.5 to 5 range (closer to 5).

[iorange55]

Wow CBS 11 here in DFW really going cold. Forecasting a low of 17 one day with highs not getting above freezing Wednesday or Thursday. Snow on Tuesday.

[benrayrog]

Wow CBS 11 here in DFW really going cold. Forecasting a low of 17 one day with highs not getting above freezing Wednesday or Thursday. Snow on Tuesday.

I just saw that. Intresting one of the local stations up here jumped on board so quickly.

[Ntxw]

FWIW, long range 18 NAM is faster with the shortwave and already more south.

[Longhornmaniac8]

FWIW, long range 18 NAM is faster with the shortwave and already more south.

Meaning that the moisture beats the cold air here?

[Ntxw]

FWIW, long range 18 NAM is faster with the shortwave and already more south.

Meaning that the moisture beats the cold air here?

Meaning the slow, lagginess of the GFS doesn't match.

[Rgv20]

Corpus afternoon discussion

ADDITIONAL STRONG S/WVS WILL MOVE OVER A WEST COAST/PACIFIC RIDGE
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS CARVES A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED JET PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGING UP THE WEST
COAST AND DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW AN ARCTIC FRONT
TO SPILL SOUTH NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL AND UPR S/WVS WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES SPILLING INTO THE REGION BY TUE...BUT ESP INTO WED WHEN
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S. AGAIN MODELS ARE HAVING SERIOUS
ISSUES DEALING W/ DETAILS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE
ARCTIC HIGH...AS WELL AS WHETHER IT WILL BE WET BEHIND THE FRONT OR
DRY OUT IMMEDIATELY. THINK AT LEAST WED WILL REMAIN DAMP SIMILAR TO
THE GFS PROGS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. TOUGH AT THIS POINT TO SAY
WHETHER WE WILL SEE A FREEZE GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE
GENERAL COLD PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK SEEMS LIKELY

[Metalicwx220]

We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1654/gfspcp240m.gif

I can't find this map this far out. Do you know where to access it?

Look here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml

Choose the model run time (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, or 18Z). Choose the panel size (course, medium or fine) according to your monitor size (medium works well for a 19-24" monitor). Then choose from either the "10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn" column or click the link at the top to go to the upper-air GFS graphics and choose from the "MSLP 1000 - 500mb" column.

I also like to look at the twister site for GFS snow accumulation maps. Go here:
http://www.twisterdata.com/

Click the "GFS" tab up top and open the "Winter" section in the left navigation frame. Choose "snow depth" from the list of winter panels then navigate to the hour you want to look at. In addition, this map is clickable to produce an atmospheric sounding for wherever you click on the map.

I was tired of going to page 155 to access this.

[Ntxw]

CBS forecast for those who didn't see. Talk about liberal of the bunch. (For DFW)



Metalic, you should bookmark those pages.

[Brandon8181]

CBS forecast for those who didn't see. Talk about liberal of the bunch. (For DFW)

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/8554/5day.jpg

Metalic, you should bookmark those pages.

Looks a lot like my forecast yesterday for Tuesday...

60% Rain changing to sleet, changing to all snow by 2 p.m. with temperature falling to 27 degrees by 5 p.m.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CaptinCrunch]

Wow CBS 11 here in DFW really going cold. Forecasting a low of 17 one day with highs not getting above freezing Wednesday or Thursday. Snow on Tuesday.

Let's see what WFAA CH8 does, knowing them they will add it into the forecast but say the ground temps wont support it sticking because it was in the 60's for 2 days.

[gboudx]

DFW NWS put this out. I don't know how long the web page will be around, so get it while you can.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=4

An arctic air mass will head south into the region next week with
temperatures turning sharply colder Monday night and Tuesday.
Meanwhile an upper level low will move in from the Pacific and
approach the region from the west. Precipitation is expected to
develop ahead of the upper low across Texas and Oklahoma Monday
Night and Tuesday. The atmosphere should be cold enough for a mix
of rain, sleet, or freezing rain on Tuesday for most of North Texas.
Snow will be possible, especially for locations across northwest
Texas and Oklahoma. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding the
strength and timing of the upper level low. A faster movement
would mean less wintry precipitation for North Texas, while a slower
movement would bring more. Keep checking back for updates on this
developing winter weather situation.

Let's see what WFAA CH8 does, knowing them they will add it into the forecast but say the ground temps wont support it sticking because it was in the 60's for 2 days.

Well Pete needs to hurry thru it so he can joke around with Hansen.

[srainhoutx]