Texas Winter 2016-2017

[ThunderSleetDreams]

ISOTHERM is a quality poster at AMWX and makes some of the most detailed post. I agree with him on the coming warm period but think he might be keying on some transient features as signs of a true pattern change. Only time will tell, but I am a bit skeptical that we will see any rapid changes to the Nina background state. Also, as NTWX pointed out, that post is pretty NEcentric.

He is one of the best imo. He is up there with the top forecasters. I actually have talked to him over the phone. Imo, I think if we get out of the niña background state , we will be much better. Walker cell is slowly weakening and a little help is better than nothing at this point. I personally don't want another transient pattern if it turns cold again. I think that would help to get some type of ssw or mmw event. Do you think we go back to cold Bubba? Will it be the same as we have seen already? Imo, I think it may be different with things changing in pacific, but I could be incorrect

We will certainly get cold again but obviously the duration is the question. I agree with many of the posters on here that are pointing towards the end of January for a return.

OH BUBBA YES!

[dhweather]

I will say this ... it cannot rain soon enough if you ask me. We are in the midst of the one of the worst cedar fever seasons here in south central Texas in decades! That is what the experts are saying. And considering all of the sick people I'm seeing daily ... and how crappy I feel ... this warm, windy weather is just spreading the misery around exponentially. Once those wonderful rains fall this weekend we can clean out the atmosphere, at least for a little while.

I'm not sure how many other parts of Texas deal with this ... but I'm telling ya, it's a BIG deal here.

It's a big deal here too, and it is killing me! Rain rain rain and stop this madness!

[wxman57]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

[JDawg512]

Austin lies just to the east from the heart of the largest Blueberry Ashe Juniper forest in the world. Anyone within the vicinity or downwind of whatever direction the wind is blowing over it will feel it's effects in some form or fashion allergic or not. The pollen grains themselves are ginormous.

Being on the ☔!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

Not me. I don't mind a 75-degree January day, but 20-30 mph winds are highly irritating.

[Tireman4]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

Sigh. Just dadgum sigh....

[wxman57]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

Sigh. Just dadgum sigh....

Cheer up, my "long-range guy" in the cubicle next to mine is touting a major pattern change near the end of January. Though we've been friends & coworkers for nearly 30 years, he's a cold-mongerer tried and true. He says not only is cold coming late January, but there may be an ice age coming as well.

[Portastorm]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

Sigh. Just dadgum sigh....

Cheer up, my "long-range guy" in the cubicle next to mine is touting a major pattern change near the end of January. Though we've been friends & coworkers for nearly 30 years, he's a cold-mongerer tried and true. He says not only is cold coming late January, but there may be an ice age coming as well.

I must say, I really enjoy it when you write the kind of stuff that talks about the coming "ice age" and "cold coming."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

Sigh. Just dadgum sigh....

Cheer up, my "long-range guy" in the cubicle next to mine is touting a major pattern change near the end of January. Though we've been friends & coworkers for nearly 30 years, he's a cold-mongerer tried and true. He says not only is cold coming late January, but there may be an ice age coming as well.

I see models saying the fridge opens up, what specifically are the teleconnections for this? Is it the SSW event i keep hearing about? I havent seen any good evidence of this though.

[gboudx]

Ice age huh? Gulf stream slowing? Abrupt weather change? Super arctic landcanes sucking cold air from the tropopause? If you see Dennis Quaid walking by in snowboots, head south.

[Golf7070]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

Sigh. Just dadgum sigh....

Cheer up, my "long-range guy" in the cubicle next to mine is touting a major pattern change near the end of January. Though we've been friends & coworkers for nearly 30 years, he's a cold-mongerer tried and true. He says not only is cold coming late January, but there may be an ice age coming as well.

Wxman57, were u being facetious when u said "ice age"? I think u was but wasn't sure. Out of curiosity, what's going on thats leading to a major pattern shift possibly ? If it's transient, it's not a real change imo. That's what we have seen so far. Was just curious. nice golfing weather I must say

[Ntxw]

Euro ensembles has below normal 850s and anomalous low heights to end this month. Looks chilly and stormy to me. May not be arctic air but cold polar air perhaps.

[wxman57]

Wxman57, were u being facetious when u said "ice age"? I think u was but wasn't sure. Out of curiosity, what's going on thats leading to a major pattern shift possibly ? If it's transient, it's not a real change imo. That's what we have seen so far. Was just curious. nice golfing weather I must say

Well, we're not going to see an ice age in our lifetimes, but he does see a pattern shift in the 500mb height anomaly in the 15-day Euro. Big trof over Alaska weakens and is replaced by a ridge toward the end of January. Building ridge out west, deepening trof over the central U.S. to end the month = more cold air for much of the U.S.

Meanwhile, enjoy the pleasant 70s (and 80s).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Skiing in Colorado the week leading up to Super Bowl. Im ok with a little -PNA action #Greedy

[northjaxpro]

Wxman57, were u being facetious when u said "ice age"? I think u was but wasn't sure. Out of curiosity, what's going on thats leading to a major pattern shift possibly ? If it's transient, it's not a real change imo. That's what we have seen so far. Was just curious. nice golfing weather I must say

Well, we're not going to see an ice age in our lifetimes, but he does see a pattern shift in the 500mb height anomaly in the 15-day Euro. Big trof over Alaska weakens and is replaced by a ridge toward the end of January. Building ridge out west, deepening trof over the central U.S. to end the month = more cold air for much of the U.S.

Meanwhile, enjoy the pleasant 70s (and 80s).

Yes, long long range GFS (300 hours) is indicating a potential "Omega Block", stout ridges on both the West and East Coasts of the CONUS , with a deep trough through the heart of the country by the last week of January. Way, way out in LaLa Land though.......

[Snowman67]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

Sigh. Just dadgum sigh....

Cheer up, my "long-range guy" in the cubicle next to mine is touting a major pattern change near the end of January. Though we've been friends & coworkers for nearly 30 years, he's a cold-mongerer tried and true. He says not only is cold coming late January, but there may be an ice age coming as well.

And all the cold mongerers said - Amen!

[Snowman67]

Too bad this front isn't going to bring the cold air down here. I just watched a weather station in Liberal, KS (SW portion of the state that borders the Oklahoma panhandle) go from 73F to 44F in a matter of minutes. Reminds me of the front that came through in December.

[Ptarmigan]

I must say, I'm really enjoying the "winter weather" this week in Houston.

Sigh. Just dadgum sigh....

Cheer up, my "long-range guy" in the cubicle next to mine is touting a major pattern change near the end of January. Though we've been friends & coworkers for nearly 30 years, he's a cold-mongerer tried and true. He says not only is cold coming late January, but there may be an ice age coming as well.

I say bring it!

[Snowman67]

Looks like the front is moving quicker and temps are falling faster than was forecasted. Snippet from the NWS in Norman, OK.


National Weather Service Norman OK
821 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The front is moving more quickly than realized earlier during the
afternoon. Although a bit slow, the HRRR continues to have a good
forecast, and now it brings the cold front through Oklahoma City
about 1 AM. Forecast grids were updated with this wind shift
timing. Additionally, temperatures in the lower 20s are now
entering the southern half of Kansas on 10-15 kt and gusty north winds.
Hourly temperatures were accelerated downward, and early Thursday
morning minimum temperatures were lowered noticeably in northern
Oklahoma. Upper teens are expected along the northwest Oklahoma
border by Thursday morning. Forecasts for the Friday freezing rain
event remain unchanged.

[Brent]

Last third of January sure looking interesting... stormy and chilly. It all starts after next Friday

and btw... the front tomorrow appears to be moving faster than expected and the short range models plow it through DFW tomorrow evening with temps in the 40s Friday all day(a sharp gradient just east/SE of DFW)

It also appears rain could linger into the middle of next week