Texas Winter 2025-2026

[snownado]

And of course, the 00z NAM pushes a big fat dry slot in by 12z Sunday, with the storm being effectively over...

The max temp in the column is still above freezing at this time, BTW.

[orangeblood]

Through 12z Saturday, 00z NAM is warmer...

The trend is not friendly…

Hopefully the models bust and the cold is much colder than we expect. I don’t want ice, but I’m not a fan of sleet either…

NAM is a sleet-fest for most of I-20 into northern central TX, heavy snow along I-40, these are the expectations. I'm not sure what the tug is, if you're looking for a foot of snow down here, that's not in the cards, at the moment.

Yep, aligns perfectly with the WSW’s across the state. Frz rain down to Austin over to North Houston. And 5-7” sleet accumulations in DFW. Some 9-12” sleet in NE Texas

[snownado]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

[jaguars_22]

Thank goodness it’s the NAM… I just feel like the models do not have a good idea on this pattern… so it looks like a slower Baja low will cause more warmth instead of colder air… weird to me! I would think the shallow air mass would beat it… I’m guessing it’s not so shallow anymore lol… idk

[orangeblood]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

I’m confused, what consolation ? The latest NAM aligns with the FW NWS office forecast and arguably more aggressive with sleet accumulations

[Ntxw]

ICON up next.

[snownado]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

I’m confused, what consolation ? The latest NAM aligns with the FW NWS office forecast and arguably more aggressive with sleet accumulations

In other words, the sampling of the Baja low was not factored into the NAM's output, which means its solution may not be the most accurate (thus subject to changes) due to the missing data.

EDIT: I don't think most of us are looking forward to a sleet fest. I'm sure there's still some hope (albeit fleeting) that we can somehow pull off a snowier outcome and that the models will eventually reflect that.

[rwfromkansas]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

I’m confused, what consolation ? The latest NAM aligns with the FW NWS office forecast and arguably more aggressive with sleet accumulations

Yeah, since we often get sleet around here, I will honestly take anything that's relatively white at this point. I would much prefer snow, but 4 inches of sleet will look like snow. Good enough for me. Just will make driving hell.

[Quixotic]

If that much sleet falls over DFW… how do you deal with clearing all of that if you want to get out of your driveway before, like, Wednesday? You might need a sledgehammer to get through sleet like that once it solidifies.

So, 2003 was 3-5” of sleet area wide. 2013 Dec was also pretty widespread but there was freezing rain the. It turned into sleet. I can’t remember the amounts but overall totals were like 3-4” of packed ice and sleet. After three days in the house we got cabin fever and decided to go to the mall. My truck was a block of ice. After an hour I finally got one door open. I know you’re not supposed to do this but finally I got a pitcher and poured hot water on the windshield and voila! Can see now. Repeated on the other doors and got the wipers free. Clearing the sidewalk was not even attempted. The sleet was so heavy and the house had no gutters so there were 2-3’ drifts around the house but at the junctures, they were almost 4’. lol man owning your first home makes you realize what an idiot you are.

[Ntxw]

If that much sleet falls over DFW… how do you deal with clearing all of that if you want to get out of your driveway before, like, Wednesday? You might need a sledgehammer to get through sleet like that once it solidifies.

So, 2003 was 3-5” of sleet area wide. 2013 Dec was also pretty widespread but there was freezing rain the. It turned into sleet. I can’t remember the amounts but overall totals were like 3-4” of packed ice and sleet. After three days in the house we got cabin fever and decided to go to the mall. My truck was a block of ice. After an hour I finally got one door open. I know you’re not supposed to do this but finally I got a pitcher and poured hot water on the windshield and voila! Can see now. Repeated on the other doors and got the wipers free. Clearing the sidewalk was not even attempted. The sleet was so heavy and the house had no gutters so there were 2-3’ drifts around the house but at the junctures, they were almost 4’. lol man owning your first home makes you realize what an idiot you are.

I remember that event in 2013, I was out in northeast Tarrant county and there were drifts of sleet especially against structures, never seen anything like it before or since.

[Quixotic]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

I’m confused, what consolation ? The latest NAM aligns with the FW NWS office forecast and arguably more aggressive with sleet accumulations

He’s either trolling or trying to not get his hopes up. He’s “here for the rain.” If that’s true, why is his name snownado?

[TheAustinMan]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

Not sure where that information came from, but we can verify that recon data did make it into the 00Z NAM. That probably had something to do with the upper-level low on the NAM shifting a bit noticeably west on initialization (though how much of an impact recon had there is hard to quantify. As a general rule, a majority of model data input is satellite-based). The 00Z Euro and GFS will have the data (and we can verify that for the GFS). I'm not sure why the count is only 6 for the NAM compared to the all-25 that we got for the GFS, but that might be just how NAM assimilates data.

While this doesn't really help with temperatures aloft, one thing I have been noticing is that the AI-derived models are noticeably faster with the initial surface push of the cold air southward than their physics-based counterparts.... the EC-AIFS compared to the ECMWF, the GFS GraphCast compared to the GFS, and even the HRRRCast compared to the HRRR. Perhaps partly to do with how frequently the shallow cold outpaces models historically. Might make for a larger and earlier swath of freezing rain/sleet than some of these 00Z models are letting on, at least in the early phases of the event Friday/early Saturday.

[Gotwood]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

I’m confused, what consolation ? The latest NAM aligns with the FW NWS office forecast and arguably more aggressive with sleet accumulations

He’s either trolling or trying to not get his hopes up. He’s “here for the rain.” If that’s true, why is his name snownado?

He has battered winter syndrome like most of us. We love snow yet live in Texas lol.

[Quixotic]

If that much sleet falls over DFW… how do you deal with clearing all of that if you want to get out of your driveway before, like, Wednesday? You might need a sledgehammer to get through sleet like that once it solidifies.

So, 2003 was 3-5” of sleet area wide. 2013 Dec was also pretty widespread but there was freezing rain the. It turned into sleet. I can’t remember the amounts but overall totals were like 3-4” of packed ice and sleet. After three days in the house we got cabin fever and decided to go to the mall. My truck was a block of ice. After an hour I finally got one door open. I know you’re not supposed to do this but finally I got a pitcher and poured hot water on the windshield and voila! Can see now. Repeated on the other doors and got the wipers free. Clearing the sidewalk was not even attempted. The sleet was so heavy and the house had no gutters so there were 2-3’ drifts around the house but at the junctures, they were almost 4’. lol man owning your first home makes you realize what an idiot you are.

I remember that event in 2013, I was out in northeast Tarrant county and there were drifts of sleet especially against structures, never seen anything like it before or since.

Yeah. It was bad. Third all time ice storm since I’ve been here. Great for sledding though. Grab some plastic crate lids and head for the nearest hill.

[rwfromkansas]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

Not sure where that information came from, but we can verify that recon data did make it into the 00Z NAM. That probably had something to do with the upper-level low on the NAM shifting a bit noticeably west on initialization (though how much of an impact recon had there is hard to quantify. As a general rule, a majority of model data input is satellite-based). The 00Z Euro and GFS will have the data (and we can verify that for the GFS). I'm not sure why the count is only 6 for the NAM compared to the all-25 that we got for the GFS, but that might be just how NAM assimilates data.

While this doesn't really help with temperatures aloft, one thing I have been noticing is that the AI-derived models are noticeably faster with the initial surface push of the cold air southward than their physics-based counterparts.... the EC-AIFS compared to the ECMWF, the GFS GraphCast compared to the GFS, and even the HRRRCast compared to the HRRR. Perhaps partly to do with how frequently the shallow cold outpaces models historically. Might make for a larger and earlier swath of freezing rain/sleet than some of these 00Z models are letting on, at least in the early phases of the event Friday/early Saturday.

A person on the flight just mentioned the Euro and GFS, so that's probably why.

[Ntxw]

Yeah. It was bad. Third all time ice storm since I’ve been here. Great for sledding though. Grab some plastic crate lids and head for the nearest hill.

During some of the melting ice falling from roofs was a thing around the apartment complexes.

https://youtube.com/shorts/KcFCySDZhIw?si=qIoZMeOBa5El1uVM

[txtwister78]

Per recon.... update basically saying while data is being loaded into the 0z runs of the GFS and Euro they caution that it will take a few runs of both models to get a better handle (lock in") on pattern/track.

More flights scheduled tomorrow

[Quixotic]

I’m confused, what consolation ? The latest NAM aligns with the FW NWS office forecast and arguably more aggressive with sleet accumulations

He’s either trolling or trying to not get his hopes up. He’s “here for the rain.” If that’s true, why is his name snownado?

He has battered winter syndrome like most of us. We love snow yet live in Texas lol.

Most of us are positive.

[Quixotic]

Yeah. It was bad. Third all time ice storm since I’ve been here. Great for sledding though. Grab some plastic crate lids and head for the nearest hill.

During some of the melting ice falling from roofs was a thing around the apartment complexes.

https://youtube.com/shorts/KcFCySDZhIw?si=qIoZMeOBa5El1uVM

Jerry Jones likes this video. It reminds him of why we will never host another Super Bowl. I rode around for about a week with my bed half full of sleet. Last stubborn bit blew off on the freeway.

[snownado]

If it's any consolation though, the RECON data is reportedly not included in the NAM (but it will be in the EURO and GFS)...

I’m confused, what consolation ? The latest NAM aligns with the FW NWS office forecast and arguably more aggressive with sleet accumulations

Yeah, since we often get sleet around here, I will honestly take anything that's relatively white at this point. I would much prefer snow, but 4 inches of sleet will look like snow. Good enough for me. Just will make driving hell.

I really fail to understand the appeal of sleet.

I mean, if it happens, then obviously it is what it is since none of us can control the weather. And I understand the allure to the extent that winter weather overall is uncommon in North Texas. But literally the only redeeming quality to sleet in particular is that it's not freezing rain. Everything else about it sucks (and it's easily a close 2nd worst weather type I can think of), and I just can't convince myself to enjoy it or be happy about it.

But that's just me.