TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

#361 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 2:03 pm

PineyWoods wrote:I don't know how to read charts much, but I do notice that the temps in Alaska and the Yukon are in the -35° to -45° range. That maybe normal for them this time of year, but just wondering if that is one of the ingredients, along with the upper flow to bring colder artic air down into Texas?

Doesn't that usually take ~7-10 days to build up and move southward under it's own weight?

Just wondering.

Maybe my Spring Branch buddy here can get a snow event like back in '73.

WE had 3, 1 in Jan. and 2 in Feb. Maybe we won't have to wait that long this time??? I can always dream can't I????

Furious George · #362 Postby **Furious George** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 2:19 pm

Forecast for Houston (IAH) on Christmas:

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

Average Temps on Christmas: 41 for the low and 63 for the high.

So yes, very seasonal temps for Christmas, but that's pretty rare. With all the fronts passing through this time of year, it will usually be decently above or below average for Christmas. I suppose calling this 'shorts weather' really depends on your tolerance for cold.

PineyWoods · #363 Postby **PineyWoods** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 3:01 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
PineyWoods wrote:I don't know how to read charts much, but I do notice that the temps in Alaska and the Yukon are in the -35° to -45° range. That maybe normal for them this time of year, but just wondering if that is one of the ingredients, along with the upper flow to bring colder artic air down into Texas?

Doesn't that usually take ~7-10 days to build up and move southward under it's own weight?

Just wondering.

Maybe my Spring Branch buddy here can get a snow event like back in '73.

WE had 3, 1 in Jan. and 2 in Feb. Maybe we won't have to wait that long this time??? I can always dream can't I????

You are just the one I was talking about! Think I had a conversation with you back when I joined about those 3 snowfalls in '73.

Cancelled school on the 1st one in Jan, 2nd one they didn't, so me and my best friend skipped school anyways, Got caught and had a 5 hour Saturday detention in Feb. Guess what is did during detention - snowed. By the time we got out you couldn't tell that it did anything.

Spring Oaks Jr High '73! :wink:

We moved that summer to Klamath Falls, Oregon. Only took my parents 10 months of the snow to say "enough" and back to Texas we came.

Seems like we had some good ice storms back in the mid to late 70's here in East Texas, and a couple of really good snows in the early '80's. Sure wish we could have a couple like that every winter.

Extremeweatherguy · #364 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 3:31 pm

Furious George wrote:Forecast for Houston (IAH) on Christmas:

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

Average Temps on Christmas: 41 for the low and 63 for the high.

So yes, very seasonal temps for Christmas, but that's pretty rare. With all the fronts passing through this time of year, it will usually be decently above or below average for Christmas. I suppose calling this 'shorts weather' really depends on your tolerance for cold.

This forecast is almost certain to be lowered later today. The 12z GFS MOS now shows highs only in the mid 50s for Christmas and the 12z operational GFS agrees.

Extremeweatherguy · #365 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 3:47 pm

As expected, the Christmas forecast was trended back downward. The NWS is not going as cold as the GFS or the GFS MOS, but they are now calling for a high of 60F again (instead of 62F). Christmas eve also looks quite chilly with a morning low near 40F and a high in the mid 50s (with rain)...

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 71. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 42.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

Extremeweatherguy · #366 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 4:25 pm

Interesting comment from the Dallas/Fort Worth AFD...

WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE COLD
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO ALL OF THE AREA. OUR CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME
IN.

Below N.O. · #367 Postby **Below N.O.** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 6:49 pm

The mother load of BITTER COLD is just sitting in Alaska right now!
-20's, -30's & -40's :cold:

and it usually gets flushed into the lower 48. We will need to watch out for this by the early part of January!

http://maps.wunderground.com/US/Region/ ... ature.html

Below N.O.

southerngale · #368 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 6:53 pm

Furious George wrote:Forecast for Houston (IAH) on Christmas:

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.

Average Temps on Christmas: 41 for the low and 63 for the high.

So yes, very seasonal temps for Christmas, but that's pretty rare. With all the fronts passing through this time of year, it will usually be decently above or below average for Christmas. I suppose calling this 'shorts weather' really depends on your tolerance for cold.

Yeah... I won't really wear shorts on Christmas, even if it is 65° - just saying it's not the bundle up, watch the sky, and hope for something interesting to fall like we always hope for.

But 65° isn't cold to me at all and I could wear shorts and probably would if I was just hanging around the house. That's only 5° away from a balmy 70°

With that said, the new NWS forecast now says 59° for a high on Christmas, so it did go back down some. Maybe that will be the new trend!

I wonder what tomorrow's forecast will be.

#369 Postby **Diva** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 6:40 am

Can someone please promise me that it will at least be cold-ish on Christmas day? I hate wearing Christmas sweaters when it's 70 degrees outside.

I'd order one up if I could! But I'm afraid the following would be my luck.....

Weather Queen Employee: "Hello and Welcome to Weather Queen. Can I take your order."

Diva: "Yes, I like a White Christmas, please."

Weather Queen Employee: "I'm sorry ma'am but we are out of White Christmases. Would you like to select another item from our menu?"

Diva: "What? Out of White Christmases? What kind of place calls itself "Home of the Blizzard" and can't deliver a White Christmas?"

Weather Queen Employee: "Our locations up north used up all the White Christmas supplies and our supplier hasn't caught up on the order backlog yet."

Diva: "That stinks! Okay then...I guess...just give me a Cold Christmas with a side of Low Humidity. At least I wanna have a good hair day! Do you have some of those left?"

Weather Queen Employee: "Yes ma'am...you're in luck. We've got one side order of Low Humidity left. Please pull forward and I'll have your total at the window."

Extremeweatherguy · #370 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:42 am

The NWS continues to cool our forecast here in Houston. They are now calling for 54F on Christmas Eve and 58F on Christmas Day.

#371 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 2:12 pm

PineyWoods wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:
PineyWoods wrote:I don't know how to read charts much, but I do notice that the temps in Alaska and the Yukon are in the -35° to -45° range. That maybe normal for them this time of year, but just wondering if that is one of the ingredients, along with the upper flow to bring colder artic air down into Texas?

Doesn't that usually take ~7-10 days to build up and move southward under it's own weight?

Just wondering.

Maybe my Spring Branch buddy here can get a snow event like back in '73.

WE had 3, 1 in Jan. and 2 in Feb. Maybe we won't have to wait that long this time??? I can always dream can't I????

You are just the one I was talking about! Think I had a conversation with you back when I joined about those 3 snowfalls in '73.

Cancelled school on the 1st one in Jan, 2nd one they didn't, so me and my best friend skipped school anyways, Got caught and had a 5 hour Saturday detention in Feb. Guess what is did during detention - snowed. By the time we got out you couldn't tell that it did anything.

Spring Oaks Jr High '73!

We moved that summer to Klamath Falls, Oregon. Only took my parents 10 months of the snow to say "enough" and back to Texas we came.

Seems like we had some good ice storms back in the mid to late 70's here in East Texas, and a couple of really good snows in the early '80's. Sure wish we could have a couple like that every winter.

My wife and both my children went through Sring Oaks and Spring Woods. Won't give the years for my wife for fear of extreme retribution!!!!LOL!! The kids were both there in the early and mid 90's.

Back to the weather. It is looking like we might actually have a coolish Christmas , which would be nice for a change!!! Up in NE TX, yes, in your area Piney Woods, I've heard at least one mention of some wrap around snow for the 26th, but I haven't seen the models since then.

Extremeweatherguy · #372 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 4:21 pm

The NWS has lowered the temperatures for tomorrow night and Sunday night by quite a bit. My current afternoon forecast calls for 35F on Sunday morning and 33F on the morning of Christmas Eve. :cold:

Extremeweatherguy · #373 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 5:44 pm

#374 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 8:08 am

Some rain is popping-up across the area, mainly the NW side. It looks like it will slide over us the next couple of hours with the front.

Looks like perfect holiday weather ahead (to me anyway). Not too hot, not too cold...

#375 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 10:26 am

The line is really organizing now as it pushes east of Houston & towards Baytown, etc.

#376 Postby **Diva** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:28 am

jasons wrote:The line is really organizing now as it pushes east of Houston & towards Baytown, etc.

Wow, I just looked and you're right! Looks as though it's pulling itself together. Heading my way....

Extremeweatherguy · #377 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 9:03 pm

Just in case somebody in north Texas missed this evening's short-term discussion...

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-230230-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
545 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

.NOW...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
LATER THIS EVENING. A SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN OR A SNOW FLURRY WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL OCCUR.

With temperatures currently in the lower to middle 30s and a dewpoint near 20F, a snowflake or two is definitely possible up in the Dallas/Fort worth region tonight! Be on the lookout!

Extremeweatherguy · #378 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 10:10 pm

I think the forecasted lows across the state may be too warm tonight. Temperatures are falling fast and dewpoints are still very low. Fort Worth, for instance, is already down to 31F with a dewpoint of 18F, and their low tonight was only forecast to reach 28F. With temperatures falling the way they are though and dewpoints still very low, I highly doubt they will only fall another 3 degrees. If the current trends continue, they could easily reach the lower to middle 20s, IMO. This is not just happening in Fort Worth though. Many cities continue to have quickly falling temperatures and steady or falling dewpoints. It seems very likely to me that quite a few places will break their current forecasted temperatures by at least a couple of degrees overnight, and I truthfully do not doubt that a freeze could occur as far south as parts of Houston.

Extremeweatherguy · #379 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 7:04 am

Wow, some pretty amazing and much cooler than expected numbers are coming in this morning statewide.

As of 6am, the temperatures looked like this...

Amarillo - 20F
Fort Worth - 23F
Dallas - 28F
Waco - 23F
Austin - 29F
Houston (IAH) - 33F
Beaumont - 34F
Lufkin - 28F
Victoria - 29F
Brownsville - 46F

My thermometer on the NW side of Houston - 29.7F (update: I am now down to 28.8F less than 10 minutes later)

...Before sunrise, it could still potentially even hit freezing at IAH and in Beaumont/Port Arthur too.

#380 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 7:22 am

Surprised the heck out of me!! We are at 31.4º here in downtown Spring Branch. Potentially, based on the fact the second night is usually the coldest of a cold spell here in this area we could get into the upper 20's in the morning. :eek:

edit: 7:15 am 30.6º

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