Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

WOW! GFS showing yet another winter storm moving through the Deep South one week from now. Should this come to fruition, this storm looks to be potentially more impressive than the early January Deep South winter storm as the thermal profiles will support ALL SNOW with this set up on the back side of the Low pressure system. There won't be any freezing rain with this set up I can say with confidence.

It will be very interesting as we watch the models these next several days leading into the next event.

[Stormcenter]

Unfortunately in the Deep South it's still the same song.
You don't believe it until you see it. By the way when
is the "Low" suppose to develop in the GOM today?

[northjaxpro]

Unfortunately in the Deep South it's still the same song.
You don't believe it until you see it. By the way when
is the "Low" suppose to develop in the GOM today?

Tonight in the Western GOM off the extreme SE TX coast off shore of Brownsville.

[northjaxpro]

Stormcenter, that's true, I assume most people really won't get focused on any of these events until the models gather a consenus within 48 hours off it happening.

However, I am paying attention to the models even 7 days out because based on the pattern we are current seeing with a very active southern branch of the jet stream, the set-up being depicted by GFS is certainly plausible. It's worth paying attention to for sure, especially considering that the Deep South has already been impacted a few times this winter season with the southern stream branch of the jet interacting with arctic air.

[Brent]

Decent sleet shower here. This was not forecast...

Not expecting much if any accumulation but still interesting.

As for Wednesday...

[stormy70]

Guess I better pay attention to next week event since we are leaving on Friday to go to central alabama. I would love to see snow but I do not want to be stuck up there past the weekend. And I have to laugh. My youngest daughter has a swim meet this weekend in Gulf Shores and they are calling it the Polar Bear...Perfect weather for it!

No rain here...Just cold and a little wind off of Mobile Bay.

[Brent]

It also has below zero temperatures into Central Alabama behind that... probably overdone a bit, definitely could be colder than anything we've seen.

[northjaxpro]

It also has below zero temperatures into Central Alabama behind that... probably overdone a bit, definitely could be colder than anything we've seen.

Yeah, Brent I noticed that as well. I don't think it will be that extreme hopefully, but it will still potentially bring down some of the coldest air into the region this winter season.

I think you have to consider that the snowpack in place across the Plains and Midwest is not going to moderate the airmass that much next week. But, it definitely appears that another arctic air invasion awaits the Southeastern U.S. by this time next week.

[stormy70]

I found this on weather.com when I clicked the 10 day forecast. Showers/Snow on Thursday for Fairhope.

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/36532?dayNum=7

[Brent]

Pouring sleet here at 32. Boy they sure missed this forecast... 2nd sleet storm in 3 1/2 weeks.

[timNms]

Yeah, the closures were probably not needed but I can't say I blame them. The forecast was simply too close to call and better safe than sorry. If they are predicting a cold rain and 33 degrees, who is to say it wont be 32? Heck, this still could turn into a surprise. I feel pretty sure the heavier precip will occur when temps are above freezing but you can't rule out the slim chance that they may surprise us and get to 32. EBR schools and LSU stayed open, though. I gave myself a snow day and skipped, it's much too cold to walk around campus today!

Schools and businesses are open here..... and I think they're going to get caught with their pants down if they don't get those buses running soon.

Yup. Several schools and business got caught with their pants down today. I just drove home from Magee after my school finally let us go at 12. It's nasty! Saw an accident on 49 in Magee across from Hudson's...SUV didn't make it across a bridge too well. Ended up in the ditch between the north and south bound lanes. At 10 am this morning we already had icicles on our vehicles.
NWS issued a winter storm warning...why in the world would those in charge of the schools not close the dang things down? They can make the day up but if one child or district employee loses their lives because of leadership's ignorance, there is nothing that can make that up!

[timNms]

Temp at my house is 27 with light freezing rain. I'm sure hoping we don't lose electric. I've grown quite fond of that stuff since Katrina

[TideJoe]

Temp at my house is 27 with light freezing rain. I'm sure hoping we don't lose electric. I've grown quite fond of that stuff since Katrina

I'm in Laurel right now and the ice is sticking to everything except the roads right now. I expect the roads will start freezing later on.

[georgia_tech_swagger]

The margin between cold rain and ice storm tomorrow morning is razor thin for the Upstate of SC:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 PM EST THU FEB 3 2011

HOWEVER...EVEN THE UPSTATE ISN/T OUT OF THE WOODS...FOR AN EARLY
START TO THE PCPN COULD LOCK IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
MORNING. SO WHILE I HAVE LESS WINTRY PCPN OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA
THAN POINTS TO THE NORTH AS MY CONFIDENCE IS LOWER...THIS COULD BE
THE AREA THAT SEES THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD THE COLDER AND FASTER
GFS VERIFY. RATHER OMINOUSLY...THE LATEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE
BOTH FASTER WITH PCPN ONSET. I DO NOT LIKE THIS FASTER AND FARTHER
NORTH TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...BUT I/LL STILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO
THE SREF FOR THIS PACKAGE. KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENT AS
CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY LOW IN P-TYPE CONSIDERING HOW CLOSE WE ARE
TO THE ONSET OF PCPN.

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
151 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH
SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...

.AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ICE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...CHANGING OVER
MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOIL
TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT GLAZE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON OTHER SURFACES. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO MIX WITH THE
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST...OR NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM MILLPORT TO CORDOVA...WITH ACCUMULATIONS NEARING
TWO INCHES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALZ017>021-026>029-040600-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0003.110203T2000Z-110204T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KBMX.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110203T2000Z/
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...ANNISTON...CENTRE...
HEFLIN...PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...
ROANOKE
151 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.


$$

Snowing in Birmingham...

[Brent]

Birmingham again, where the schools did not close...

[Stormcenter]

Excerpt from HPC Long range discussion for this afternoon.

UPDATED PRELIM PROGS HAD INCORPORATED A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE
LATEST ECMWF MEAN INTO THE BLEND THAN THE EARLY PRELIM. WE LIKED
THE IDEA OF THE NEW ECMWF MEAN SOMEWHAT WEAKENING NRN STREAM
ENERGY VICINITY OF THE LAKES/NEW ENG DAYS 4-5...WHILE PLAYING UP
MORE SIGNIFICANT TROFFING AT 500MB OVER THE W CENTRAL CONUS THAN
THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOWED
HIGH SPREAD WITH THE FOLLOWING MAJOR SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE SRN
PLAINS OR GULF COAST REGION NEXT THU/DAY 7.

THE NEW DETERMINISTIC 12Z/03 GFS SHOWS A DISTINCT TREND TOWARDS
THE 00Z/03 UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BY TUE DAY 5...DROPPING A
SHARPENING SHORTWAVE SSE ON THE E SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE IN
THE ERN PACIFIC. THE 12Z/03 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE THIS FEATURE
TOO...AND ARE ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z/03
ECMWF RUN. THE NEW 12Z/03 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE SHARPER AND
ABOUT 18HRS SLOWER WITH THE AZ TROF WED THAN THAN THE
CORRESPONDING GFS....AND IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER. THE 00Z/03 ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ALL SHOWED
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHARPER TROF OVER THE GRT BASIN AND IT SEEMS
TO BE PANNING OUT.

WE INCORPORATED NEW DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS INTO THE FINAL
GRAPHICS. A MAJOR SYS IS MORE LIKELY NOW ALONG THE GULF/SERN COAST
THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE
6 AND 7 DAYS OUT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY NWWD WITH A
MAJOR STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU DAY 7.
AMIDST HIGH UNCERTAINTY...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SUBSEQUENT RUNS TREND EVEN FARTHER W WITH THIS STORM NEXT WEEK
TOWARDS THE FAVORED LA NINA TRACK THRU THE OH VLY/WRN FOOTHILLS OF
THE APPALACHIANS.

[Agua]

Bella, Lucedale is far enough north of the coast that accumulating snow is not completely out of the question. South of I-10, the only snow storms that occur are those that show up on the long range models.

Yes,but even the coast has some snow in the forecast!

Which was my point. The only place snow accumulates south of I-10 is in long range computer models.

[DEEDEE911]

hi everyone well i go to college in natchez mississippi and there is already ice accumulating on the roads and bridges on my way home one over pass loked like it had snow on it but it was nothing but ice pellets. I live in meadville mississippi and we are also accumulating ice on the roads and expecially cars my car is nothing but an ice cube with icecicles on it and it continues to come down and hard at times. everyone stay safe.

[BigB0882]

That map of the GFS already has the snow way north of where it was on the previous run. Still nice to see the general idea being there. I have been afraid that the one thing to hurt us along the coast will be temps coming in higher than originally thought. Plenty of time for things to change, though. My GFS text output is a little puzzling. It shows the temp about 48 around noon then 61 at 6pm when the storm comes through then quickly dropping to 30 by midnight. It gives .04 in snow on the backend but .50 rain before that. I have a feeling it will not get up to 61. That is well above the other readings and we will have highs in the 40's the 2 days before. I don't see it being right. JMO. Not a forecast.