Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

The wind makes it kind of hard to stay out there and look at it...

Edit: Light rain again sigh

[rainman31]

Still a blowing drizzle and I have 32.5 on my weather station.

[iorange55]

It's gonna be messy by rush hour if this continues. Areas to the west already reporting light icing.

[rainman31]

I would agree, If this drizzle keeps up then I would think rush hour could be messy.


Edit: What I am seeing as drizzle is most likely freezing rain because Corinith south of me is reporting freezing rain.

[rainman31]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
154 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

.UPDATE...

REGARDING 130 AM HEADLINES UPDATES...

07Z SFC OBS INDICATE FREEZING TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO NORTH TX
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS BEGAN
INDICATING LIGHT DRIZZLE SPREADING WEST OF OUR INITIAL ADVISORY
AREA IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING QUICKLY...SO
WENT AHEAD AND SPREAD THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WEST OF OUR
INITIAL ISSUANCE. THE ADVISORY NOW COVERS ALL AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS LINE THROUGH 8 AM CDT. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL END FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY 12Z. WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY ALL DAY IN THE 20S...IF ANY SFCS ICE UP THEY WILL NOT BE
MELTING UNLESS THE ROADS ARE TREATED OR UNTIL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
AND SUNSHINE IS ALLOWED TO WARM THE ACTUAL ROAD SFCS. CHOSE TO
KEEP THE ADVISORY OUT THRU 8 AM MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL FOR ICY SFCS
OF BRIDGES...OVERPASSES OR ANY OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS THRU THE
MORNING COMMUTE. AS OF 130 AM NO COUNTIES WERE REPORTING ROAD
PROBLEM AS YET EVEN WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM BOWIE TO DYESS
REPORTING FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
ACCUMULATE WITH SOIL TEMPS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 40S. THINK THAT
ELEVATED SFCS MAY BE THE ONLY ONES IMPACTED WHICH COULD CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN THE METROPLEX IF DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO FALL AS
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS THEY BECOME
AVAILABLE.

FOR THE WIND ADVISORY...MANY LOCATIONS WERE ALREADY REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS OF 07Z...SO WENT AHEAD AND MADE THE VALID
TIME FOR THE ADVISORY THE CURRENT TIME. WINDS MAY DIMINISH BEFORE
00Z BUT DID NOT CHANGE THE END TIME FOR NOW AS LATER SHIFTS CAN
CANCEL THE ADVISORY EARLY IF WINDS DO INDEED FALL BELOW CRITERIA
EARLY.

CAVANAUGH

[iorange55]

i wanna go outside to see if it's icy any, but it just looks sooooooooo cold. It's still wet that's for sure.

[pwrdog]

Has anyone been checking out the water vapor out in the east pacific... Off the coast of central western mexico??

It is moving north north east?

There is still a lot out over Baja... And a little twist to the moisture..?

Makes you go Hmmmmmm?

No doubt we are getting much more rain here around northern se texas than expected..

[rainman31]

26 degrees and frizzing drizzle, furniture on the back patio has a light coat of ice.

[severe]

Has anyone been checking out the water vapor out in the east pacific... Off the coast of central western mexico??

It is moving north north east?

There is still a lot out over Baja... And a little twist to the moisture..?

Makes you go Hmmmmmm?

No doubt we are getting much more rain here around northern se texas than expected..

You just may be on to something.
This is an interesting development.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
345 am CST Thursday Jan 7 2010


Discussion...
quite a bit more precipitation in/around southeast Texas than previously thought (all
courtesy of the overrunning moisture from the W/sw). Cold front is
currently making its way into the County Warning Area this morning...with a lot of
wind/frozen precipitation noted behind it over North Texas. And so given these
ongoing trends...will likely increase probability of precipitation for this morning and go
with the mention of sleet for a good part of the County Warning Area this morning/
tapering off its mention to the southern half (to all but the immediate
coast) during the afternoon. High temperatures today are occurring as we speak
and grids do reflect the falling temperatures throughout the day.


Of some concern still is the possibility of additional precipitation on Friday
(most likely in the form of snow!?). Model soundings still hinting
at this as another disturbance moves across/embedded within the SW
flow aloft. While available moisture will be the main drawback...a
look at the current WV imagery and all The Mess near the western mexi-
can coast does give pause.


Otherwise...the extended cold snap still prognosticated to linger through
the start of the weekend. As upper level ridging finally builds in
over the area...clearing skies/calm winds and the cold/dry airmass
could make for very optimal radiational cooling scenarios for both
Sat/sun mornings. Increasing clouds via the developing upper trough/
low near the Baja California peninsula Sun night should help US warm up a bit
at night. However...as expected...the further development/progres-
sion of this next system is causing a lot of wrinkles in the long-
range forecast. At this time will opt for a slower eastward track of the system to-
Ward the region (perhaps middle/late next week) which could then mean
a longer warming period for US as the Gulf flow returns. 41

[iorange55]

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS
MORNING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0 AND MINUS 5 DEGREES...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS LINE GENERALLY BEFORE SUNRISE
TODAY. ICING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. FOR SURFACES IN CONTACT
WITH THE GROUND MUCH OF THE DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM...
AND MAY EVAPORATE DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION.
ANY ROAD SURFACE NOT IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...SUCH AS
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS...MAY ACCUMULATE
A LIGHT ICY COATING MAKING FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

MORNING LOWS FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS. THE
COLD AIR COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES TO BE BETWEEN ZERO AND MINUS 5 DEGREES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO
THE COLD MAY RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.

I can't remember the last Wind Chill Advisory. Then earlier this winter there was a blizzard warning. Now all we need is one of our famous ice storms.

[rainman31]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 071019
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CST THU JAN 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE RUC HAS THE CURRENT TRENDS
ANALYZED BEST AND WILL FOLLOW IT CLOSELY IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND EXTENDS
ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH ARKANSAS TO TYLER TO TEMPLE TO SAN
ANTONIO. AS WITH MOST SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES THE WESTERN PUSH
IS FASTER DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION ON THE ESCARPMENT. THE SUB-
FREEZING AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND A BIT AND AS OF 4 AM THE FREEZING
LINE EXTENDS FROM PARIS TO DALLAS TO HAMILTON.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE ANALYSIS OF THE RUC ISENTROPIC SURFACES
SHOWED A POCKET OF MOISTURE IN THE 715 TO 740 MB RANGE AND WEAK
ASCENT IN THIS LAYER ON TOP OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE AREA OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WICHITA FALLS HAS A SURFACE DEWPOINT OF 10 AND
THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
GIVEN THESE TWO FACTORS...THINK THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
SHUT OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP A MENTION
OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH AND EAST OF A SHERMAN TO GRANBURY
TO CANTON LINE UNTIL 8AM.

WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF MINOR ICING ON AREA OVERPASSES
IN JACK...WISE...DENTON AND PALO PINTO COUNTY. TEMPERATURES IN
TARRANT COUNTY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED SOON IN DALLAS COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF
ICE ON AREA BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT
MAY NEED TO TRIM COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE THE 8AM
EXPIRATION.

THE MAIN STORY PAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS WILL BE THE BITTER COLD AIR
AND STRONG WINDS. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE CLOSE TO 5
MB PER 3 HOURS...CAUSING THE WINDS TO ALREADY MEET ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...BUT MAY NEED TO
BE EXPIRED BEFORE 6AM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AFTER
MIDDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT INCREASE TOO MUCH AFTER DAYBREAK AS STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MORNING CLOUD COVER CONTINUES. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS AND WITH NORTH WINDS
CONTINUING AT 15 MPH...WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO ENNIS TO CANTON LINE FROM 6Z TONIGHT
UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY.

CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED AND HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL NOT REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. STILL
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE NEXT
WEEK AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 28 14 25 13 32 / 10 0 5 0 0
WACO, TX 32 15 28 15 37 / 10 5 10 0 0
PARIS, TX 27 10 23 10 29 / 10 5 5 5 0
DENTON, TX 26 13 25 11 31 / 10 0 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 27 15 24 13 30 / 10 0 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 28 14 25 16 32 / 10 0 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 29 15 26 13 32 / 10 5 10 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 33 15 28 14 35 / 10 5 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 35 15 29 14 38 / 20 5 10 0 0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141.


&&

$$

69/85

[iorange55]

The GFS 06z is kind of interesting for early next week again. It looks like it develops some sort of low, but just doesn't develop a lot of moisture with it. It's doing something, and it pushed the activity further back towards Texas. It'll be interesting to see with the 12z runs later.

[pwrdog]

East Pacific - Water Vapor Loop Link


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-wv.html

It sure looks like something might happen... at least a chance to not waste all of this cold air.. That's better than it looked yesterday..

It looks like a disturbance headed toward Cabo and a huge chunk of moisture out in the east pacific expanding and some of it moving NE...

My -removed- has the vision of the perfect storm... but .25 of snow would be nice as well..

[iorange55]

The temp has went from 44 at midnight to 26 right now. So about a 20 degree drop. Windchills in the teens. I feel bad for mailman today.

[rainman31]

Local Storm Report


01/07/2010 0358 am

Denton, Denton County.

Freezing rain e0.01 inch, reported by law enforcement.


Numerous roads west of I-35 have icy spots. Many cars
have slid off the roads and into ditches.

[Diva]

Local Storm Report


01/07/2010 0358 am

Denton, Denton County.

Freezing rain e0.01 inch, reported by law enforcement.


Numerous roads west of I-35 have icy spots. Many cars
have slid off the roads and into ditches.

Yikes! And so the fun begins....

So, where is the leading edge of the front at this morning? I'm trying to decide when it will make it's way all the way down to us on the coast.

[Portastorm]

42 degrees and drizzle here in SW Austin as of 5:45 am. Temps dropped 10 degrees in last hour and the winds are really picking up from the north.

Lago Vista (just west of the city) is at 36 degrees and falling fast. Fredericksburg is already down to freezing at 32. Not surprised. This arctic airmasses seem to seep down into the Hill Country before they spread east.

Edit update: OK, this is wild. I'm literally watching the temps drop in front of my eyes on my electronic temp gauge. Now down to 40 as of 6 am. WeatherBug readings in the vicinity show upper 30s so the Portastorm House Heat Island Effect must be keeping me a bit warmer.

[rainman31]

Freezing drizzle stopped about an hour ago and it's 22 degrees.

[serenata09]

Local Storm Report


01/07/2010 0522 am

Dallas, Dallas County.

Freezing rain e0.01 inch, reported by dept of highways.

[gboudx]

Many ISD's closed this morning in DFW area. Here's a link:

http://www.wfaa.com/weather/closings/

My kids still have school here in Rockwall. Little ice, if any on the road in front of my house. But the grass has a nice glaze of ice on it. Drive friendly out there.