Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

I see the same thing in the EC control run. Cold enters Montana then slides east across MN/WS and across the Great Lakes vs. down the Plains to Texas. The below-normal 850mb temps stop in northern OK. Above normal south of there. That GFS map is colder than the Euro but still has near normal temps for Houston and only 3-4C below-normal for Dallas. Nothing extreme there. The cold remains way to our north.

[TheProfessor]

I see the same thing in the EC control run. Cold enters Montana then slides east across MN/WS and across the Great Lakes vs. down the Plains to Texas. The below-normal 850mb temps stop in northern OK. Above normal south of there. That GFS map is colder than the Euro but still has near normal temps for Houston and only 3-4C below-normal for Dallas. Nothing extreme there. The cold remains way to our north.

What will stop that cold air from plunging south? A dreaded winter warm front?

[Portastorm]

I see the same thing in the EC control run. Cold enters Montana then slides east across MN/WS and across the Great Lakes vs. down the Plains to Texas. The below-normal 850mb temps stop in northern OK. Above normal south of there. That GFS map is colder than the Euro but still has near normal temps for Houston and only 3-4C below-normal for Dallas. Nothing extreme there. The cold remains way to our north.

What will stop that cold air from plunging south? A dreaded winter warm front?

A lot of things could ... potentially ... such as a progressive flow which is what we have seen much of this winter, or a screaming Pacific jet (which kinda helps the former), or a southeast US ridge retrograding towards the Southern Plains, or wxman57's Heat Miser magic weather maps.

[Big O]

I see the same thing in the EC control run. Cold enters Montana then slides east across MN/WS and across the Great Lakes vs. down the Plains to Texas. The below-normal 850mb temps stop in northern OK. Above normal south of there. That GFS map is colder than the Euro but still has near normal temps for Houston and only 3-4C below-normal for Dallas. Nothing extreme there. The cold remains way to our north.

What will stop that cold air from plunging south? A dreaded winter warm front?

A lot of things could ... potentially ... such as a progressive flow which is what we have seen much of this winter, or a screaming Pacific jet (which kinda helps the former), or a southeast US ridge retrograding towards the Southern Plains, or wxman57's Heat Miser magic weather maps.

Wxman57 is right in interpreting the model data. There is not progressive flow or a screaming Pacific jet. The trough holds in place across the eastern and central CONUS and actually retrogrades west; the only problem is that the cold air never fully makes it way south into Texas. It is cold, but nothing extreme. I suspect the models will begin trending towards colder air further south, but that's just a hunch. The Evil Emperor's dark side powers are impressive, but there is still hope.

[Portastorm]

If that's the case then we're talking about source regions and the depth of anomaly in those regions, correct? Because if you have a large trough, a full latitude trough, over the central and eastern US, it's going to encompass much of Texas. If the air mass from the source region is cold enough, it'll come south. Or if the flow is progressive, it'll graze Texas and move on, much like we have seen to date.

Another thing is if a cross-polar flow develops and is picked up by the operational model runs, you'll see those temp anomalies drop significantly.

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center has updated their Day 8-14 Outlook...looks like some colder air may return across our Region to end the month of January.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 28 2014

TODAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE GROWING POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE CONUS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE
MONTH. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH
A MEAN RIDGE FORECAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS THAT
THE SOURCE REGION FOR POST-FRONTAL AIR MASSES WILL BE GROWING COLDER AS
CROSS-POLAR FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES MAY BE
TOO CONSERVATIVE AND GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL ARE LIKELY GOING TO
EXPAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES. LATE IN THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR
MASSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL, WHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DRASTICALLY REDUCED FROM
YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK.

TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE MAJOR HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS (WEST COAST, EASTERN
CONUS, NORTH ATLANTIC) SUGGEST THE FORECAST WAVE PATTERN MAY CONTAIN
WAVELENGTHS THAT ARE TOO LARGE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN.
THIS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, WHERE
SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THOUGH IT'S
UNCERTAIN WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANY AMPLIFICATION
WOULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS; NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST AS A RESULT. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-DRY NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ENTERING THE MEAN TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME SNOWFALL, TO NEW ENGLAND,
WHERE ANY STORM TRACKS ARE FAVORED TO CONVERGE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

[Lagreeneyes03]

This is what Bastardi tweeted earlier today. Puts Texas pretty cold it seems.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Portastorm]

That's actually not all that cold. The green in the map covering roughly the northeastern half of Texas signifies temp anomalies of about 5 degrees below normal Celsius. That equates to about 10 degrees below normal Fahrenheit. That would probably mean highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s ... maybe highs in the 40s in far north Texas.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

That's actually not all that cold. The green in the map covering roughly the northeastern half of Texas signifies temp anomalies of about 5 degrees below normal Celsius. That equates to about 10 degrees below normal Fahrenheit. That would probably mean highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s ... maybe highs in the 40s in far north Texas.

You have to consider that it is a 5 day average anomaly and not a single day. Also it is within a range where such ideas probably means much more significant values than what they actually show given the range of the guidance shown.

[Ntxw]

There is also a persistent cutoff low diving on the west side of the air mass across the great basin on several models. Wouldn't it be something if we could get it to round the base of the trough? No SE ridge to prevent it from digging. Split flow trend is our friend, rex block.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: CFSV2 on every run now has lots of snow around NYC around the time of the Super Bowl http://t.co/kHIS22QmMJ

[Ntxw]

I see the same thing in the EC control run. Cold enters Montana then slides east across MN/WS and across the Great Lakes vs. down the Plains to Texas. The below-normal 850mb temps stop in northern OK. Above normal south of there. That GFS map is colder than the Euro but still has near normal temps for Houston and only 3-4C below-normal for Dallas. Nothing extreme there. The cold remains way to our north.

If you get 580dm heights as a block in the Arctic and Northern Alaska, it's pretty much inferred an Arctic outbreak is imminent. Of course the control run is extreme, I would tone it down a little but still impressive nonetheless. It's definitely not an unfavorable flow and is not progressive. Not only that there is Aleutian ridging coming in, that signals both the WPO and EPO are ready to deliver them goods! Well for us cold mongerers at least . I will say this, the models and trends certainly do not look better for you as they did several days ago when winter was canceled. Encore!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS shows a more amplified Eastern CONUS trough at 183 hours than the 12Z GFS plus look at all those mid-level NW winds over the Central U.S. into Texas:

[TheStormExpert]

18Z GFS shows a more amplified Eastern CONUS trough at 183 hours than the 12Z GFS plus look at all those mid-level NW winds over the Central U.S. into Texas:
http://i1276.photobucket.com/albums/y47 ... 36c098.gif

Looks like we finally put an end to that pesky persistent SE/W. Atlantic ridge. (About time too!)

[Ntxw]

Something to follow will be the daily EPO index. Since the last outbreak we have climbed to 100s which is 1-2SD's above normal. Euro/GFS and especially the ensembles begins to tumble the index in the coming days. If we start to see the index fall precipitously it will validate what the models are showing at 500mb in this region. Of course the EPO has typically fallen as shown if not greater this winter thanks to that amazing warm pool.

Lower stratosphere and troposphere definitely has support for the EPO domain to control the global weather pattern.



Haven't forgotten about the WPO either, it's going to feed higher heights to the EPO for sure. This is where Aleutian ridging will come in.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose hints at possibly something in the long-term. Anything is better than this West Texas-like drying "wildfire" wind and humidity -- in south central Texas, thanks to a series of moisture-starved Canadian air mass fronts The dryness brings back memory flashbacks of 2011.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

"It will be interesting to watch weather developments toward the end of the month. Long-range solutions indicate the West Coast ridge will be weakening and breaking down, allowing Pacific storm systems to begin moving inland across the West. It’s possible some of these storm systems could potentially begin to affect Texas in early February. Stay tuned.

Bob"

[Portastorm]

Oh 6z GFS run, you're so beautiful that I cannot look upon you!

You promise my friends and I the world, but will you really deliver?!

[srainhoutx]

Looking toward the next week time frame and toward the end of January, the teleconnection indices continue to advertise a -EPO nearing the 3 to 3.5 range with a slightly negative WPO. The deterministic 06Z GFS as well as the 00Z Euro are suggesting a very stout Gulf of Alaska Ridge nosing well N into the Arctic Circle with abundant short wave energy dropping S from Canada. The trend the past couples of cycles has been to shift the colder air a bit further W. It will be interesting to see if the guidance continues this trend over the next 5-7 days. What raises an eyebrow is a noisy sub tropical jet that appears to be developing after the cold air arrives. The pattern does appear to be changing to a somewhat similar setup we saw back in late November/early to mid December where the trough axis was to our W and upper lows meandered near Southern California/Arizona as over running precip developed with cold air at the surface. We will see.

[Rgv20]

6zGFS says Snow for most of Texas by the end of the month..

[wxman57]

00Z Euro still has the dome of cold air moving south into MT/Dakotas then east across the Great Lakes to NE U.S., where it stays through 15 days. Only slightly below normal temps in Texas through the end of the month. Ensemble run has no freeze in Dallas through the 24th. The cold JB speaks of is for his part of the world, not ours. Of course, the coming pattern could provide another round of highs in the 30s/40s across SE TX with some rain.