Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Brent]

I'm a little concerned about the lack of snow cover in the plains and midwest, although I don't think that in itself would prevent a surprise snow for our area, but it would help if those areas started seeing snow. Especially with any future cold air coming down. I am hoping something similar sets up like in January when snow cover was weak but in the days preceding the arctic outbreak, those areas got pummeled with snow. Waiting on the potential pattern flip is requiring some serious patience.

Yeah I just dunno about this winter anymore. It's been nothing like people expected here and I don't know if the end of February and March can make up for it at this point. We wasted so much climo and we're wasting it now in the first half of February. Should have snowed those times it was in Kansas

[txtwister78]

If you want a return to winter, then the CMC Ensemble is what you're rooting for. Definitely a colder trend and as mentioned yesterday with the active southern jet influence, now starting to show a winter precip signal around the 17th-20th timeframe.

[txtwister78]

GEFS getting there also. All kinds of potential with that presentation.

[bubba hotep]

Getting 2010 vibes on these ENS 5h charts

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1707026400/1708408800-eu9tYzPaZVs.png

That will be our best bet. At this point, it doesn't look like we will get any more severe cold, which is fine since it usually comes with a positive tilted longwave pattern that keeps Texas mostly dry.

[Brent]

Getting 2010 vibes on these ENS 5h charts

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1707026400/1708408800-eu9tYzPaZVs.png

That will be our best bet. At this point, it doesn't look like we will get any more severe cold, which is fine since it usually comes with a positive tilted longwave pattern that keeps Texas mostly dry.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2024020412/240/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

zero cold air on the apps

[Stratton23]

EPS 12z with a similar 500 mb height pattern, very impressive alaskan - greenland blocking linkage, also shows the first initial shot of colder air early next week, step down process

[jasons2k]

Meanwhile, the trees here are already starting to bloom.

[funster]

Winter lately either Polar Vortex or bust

[Stratton23]

Big changes in noaas 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, I suggest folks wait another month before planting things, I dont see severe cold, but with the teleconnections all staying negative for a long stretch of time, we could easily see freezes in this pattern or colder

[Brent]

Winter lately either Polar Vortex or bust

Yup I mean the jury is still out on the rest of winter but as of now this has been just like last year except the Christmas week last year was in January this winter. Same light snow total very similar how cold it was but also last year I never remember anything else after this date so we'll see but I'm not holding my breath til we see something within 5 days

[Itryatgolf]

I wanted to clarify that it will get colder. Can't deny it now. I just believe it will be cold but dry. I don't want it particularly to be that way, but we shall see.

[Itryatgolf]

Winter lately either Polar Vortex or bust

Yup I mean the jury is still out on the rest of winter but as of now this has been just like last year except the Christmas week last year was in January this winter. Same light snow total very similar how cold it was but also last year I never remember anything else after this date so we'll see but I'm not holding my breath til we see something within 5 days

I like your chances for a winter storm more than me for sure with this upcoming pattern. 12z euro is advertising it currently

[Stratton23]

Wouldnt be surprised to start seeing some crazy model runs in the week ahead, look at how the pattern really amplifies on the 18z GFS, very strong blocking signature over Alaska and Greenland, ridging extending into the arctic circle, thats a recipe for some very cold air to get dislodged

[Brent]

Winter lately either Polar Vortex or bust

Yup I mean the jury is still out on the rest of winter but as of now this has been just like last year except the Christmas week last year was in January this winter. Same light snow total very similar how cold it was but also last year I never remember anything else after this date so we'll see but I'm not holding my breath til we see something within 5 days

I like your chances for a winter storm more than me for sure with this upcoming pattern. 12z euro is advertising it currently

I don't think it's gonna be cold enough next weekend tbh unfortunately. I have highs in the 50s when the Euro is snowing lol

Also the Euro totally busted in January here so I take it with a grain of salt now. Its gonna be a long time before I forget it showed 8 inches here when we could barely get an inch

I think next weekend is too early anyway seems like it would be after Valentine's Day

[Itryatgolf]

Yup I mean the jury is still out on the rest of winter but as of now this has been just like last year except the Christmas week last year was in January this winter. Same light snow total very similar how cold it was but also last year I never remember anything else after this date so we'll see but I'm not holding my breath til we see something within 5 days

I like your chances for a winter storm more than me for sure with this upcoming pattern. 12z euro is advertising it currently

I don't think it's gonna be cold enough next weekend tbh unfortunately. I have highs in the 50s when the Euro is snowing lol

Also the Euro totally busted in January here so I take it with a grain of salt now. Its gonna be a long time before I forget it showed 8 inches here when we could barely get an inch

Typically when the euro shows a system two days in a row, there will be storm!! A -epo/nao combo will send the cold down or at least it should lol

[Brent]

I like your chances for a winter storm more than me for sure with this upcoming pattern. 12z euro is advertising it currently

I don't think it's gonna be cold enough next weekend tbh unfortunately. I have highs in the 50s when the Euro is snowing lol

Also the Euro totally busted in January here so I take it with a grain of salt now. Its gonna be a long time before I forget it showed 8 inches here when we could barely get an inch

Typically when the euro shows a system two days in a row, there will be storm!! A -epo/nao combo will send the cold down or at least it should lol

Well see but I think this is literally the first run showing it

Like I said above too I think it's always been later in the month not next weekend. I need more runs to change that narrative

[Itryatgolf]

I don't think it's gonna be cold enough next weekend tbh unfortunately. I have highs in the 50s when the Euro is snowing lol

Also the Euro totally busted in January here so I take it with a grain of salt now. Its gonna be a long time before I forget it showed 8 inches here when we could barely get an inch

Typically when the euro shows a system two days in a row, there will be storm!! A -epo/nao combo will send the cold down or at least it should lol

Well see but I think this is literally the first run showing it

Like I said above too I think it's always been later in the month not next weekend. I need more runs to change that narrative

The euro showed it at 0z, but further east. Wasn't as robust as this run is and further west

[Brent]

Typically when the euro shows a system two days in a row, there will be storm!! A -epo/nao combo will send the cold down or at least it should lol

Well see but I think this is literally the first run showing it

Like I said above too I think it's always been later in the month not next weekend. I need more runs to change that narrative

The euro showed it at 0z, but further east. Wasn't as robust as this run is and further west

Just have to wait and see but not much EPS support that I see there's a few with a little but nothing like January

[Stratton23]

The 500 mb height pattern in the ensembles continues to get even better, you cant get a better setup for cold air and potentially an active southern storm track than that

[Tammie]

Larry Cosgrove still set on a return of winter…
“A wake-up call for those who thought winter is over….”

https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/05/ ... r-is-over/

“The emergence of a triple blocking scenario on all of the numerical models, consistently, for the past seven days is an alert that what once was a benign weather pattern across North America is about to turn into something that is by turns stormy and a lot colder. When you see high latitude ridges across Alaska, far northern Canada and Greenland all at the same time, then cold pooling and a suppressed jet stream are just around the corner. Incredibly, the strongest portion of the upper flow will be forced to drop into Mexico, through the Florida Keys, then up along and off of the Atlantic shoreline. The interior of the continent gets treated to air mass that drop out of the Yukon and Northwest Territories (and sometimes originating on the Siberian side of the North Pole). This is the formula you need at this time of year, to counteract the rising sun angle. The critical time frame for a colder outlook (with the snow and cold across the Intermountain Region subsiding) looks to be February 12 to March 7.

There is still enough of an El Nino episode to juice the disturbances that are embedded within the southern branch flow. While cooler readings are seen around the Galapagos Islands, sectors 4 and 3.4 are still warm, and will have an impact on the atmospheric circulation. As the cyclonic energy rides along the rim of the cold air mass, precipitation potential will increase. And with cPk and cA regines involved, ultimately so will the chance for snow and ice. You might call this set-up the “last best chance for winter weather in the lower latitudes and East Coast”, since the analogs see the chances for widespread cold breaking up after the first week of March. The snow risks will start to shift into the West again, with a much warmer outlook showing up from the Midwest into the Eastern Seaboard as we march toward calendar Spring.”