Texas Winter 2012-2013

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my latest weather article! Rain chances return late next week!
http://www.examiner.com/article/spring- ... b_articles

[Portastorm]

I don't see anything in the overnight guidance which has changed my mind that ... speaking of change ... we'll see a pattern change in about eight days to a colder/stormier pattern. Both the 0z and 6z GFS show it and the 0z Euro suggests it as well although not as strongly as the former.

We shall see.

[Yukon Cornelius]

21-22 degrees this morning on the way to work, it was nice but I know it won't stick around.

[wxman57]

Who says I don't control the weather!

Really, perhaps some of the newer members here can't tell when we're fooling around. In the absence of any life-threatening weather event, we kid each other back and forth. Some of the members here pretend they really like cold weather, and I pretend I can control the weather. But we all share something in common - our love for the weather.

[amawea]

Well, we had a quick moving little clipper come trough last night. A few flurries and a cold 11.8° this morning at Horseshoe Bend, Ar on Crown Lake. Just across the Missouri line at West Plains they are at 8°. So there is some arctic air not too far from you guys.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

[HockeyTx82]

And to think just two years ago to the day we were watching an artic air mass plow south through the plains and put us into the deep freeze for a week. How I miss it.

[wxman57]

Not much excitement on the 12Z GFS. Seasonal to above-normal temps across Texas for the next 2 weeks.

[Portastorm]

Not much excitement on the 12Z GFS. Seasonal to above-normal temps across Texas for the next 2 weeks.

I would agree. Today's 12 GFS run is the least exciting (to me) of probably the last 6-7 GFS runs. Still a long ways to go though and I'm fairly confident we'll see a storm system around the time I've been squawking about. Remember, I didn't say it would snow. I said "colder and stormier" pattern.

[wxman57]

Colder than what? I don't see anything to indicate temps as warm as we saw over the past week or so. While the GFS hinted (sometimes strongly) at a significant discharge of Canadian air southward around mid month, later runs have backed off on that. The general upper-air pattern does look to be transitioning to one that might lead to a more active southern storm track beyond 10 days, but how much cold air will be around at that time?

[Portastorm]

Colder than what? I don't see anything to indicate temps as warm as we saw over the past week or so. While the GFS hinted (sometimes strongly) at a significant discharge of Canadian air southward around mid month, later runs have backed off on that. The general upper-air pattern does look to be transitioning to one that might lead to a more active southern storm track beyond 10 days, but how much cold air will be around at that time?

In my professionally uneducated opinion ... "colder" than the semi-zonal pattern temps we will have between now and then. I think the big question as you have laid it out is how much cold air will be around at that time? Will we have a big, cold core low to our west and moving east like some of the GFS runs and ensemble members have shown? I know one thing ... I certainly don't see any "Arctic outbreaks" coming, that's for sure.

[Ntxw]

Well at least it's official we are now in phase 8 of the MJO as of today's update. The big cold core low in about one and a half week from now will be in the thick of it and most likely will be dissected on every model run. Hope for the best!

[wxman57]

12Z Euro doesn't indicate any significant cool air moving into Texas through 10 days, though it does indicate a cold front passing just beyond 10 days, along with a change to more storminess across Texas around 10 days out. No significant Canadian air involved.

[orangeblood]

Still along ways out and getting late in the season but the GFS ensembles are finally showing a better blocking pattern in the 12-15 day range, with the Greenland Block connecting with the Alaskan Ridge...right about the time the MJO is getting into Phase 2, the coldest phase of them all for the US. Cross your fingers but Mid February will probably be the best chance we'll have all winter for winter weather

[Portastorm]

Still along ways out and getting late in the season but the GFS ensembles are finally showing a better blocking pattern in the 12-15 day range, with the Greenland Block connecting with the Alaskan Ridge...right about the time the MJO is getting into Phase 2, the coldest phase of them all for the US. Cross your fingers but Mid February will probably be the best chance we'll have all winter for winter weather

Good post and I would totally agree. I think around Feb. 8-10 we will begin a period of probably 10-14 days where the POTENTIAL will be there for a Texas winter event or two. After that climatology strongly suggests it will be time for spring. That's not to say there won't be a weird potential snow event for north Texas or certainly the Panhandle in early March. And we'll probably see a few strong cold fronts in March and early April. Always do ... but in terms of real winter excitement for a larger portion of the state, I think this mid February period is going to be it. Either it happens then or we pack up our bags and head into spring.

[orangeblood]

Ugghhh!! well 2/3rds of the way through the meteorological winter season, this is not what most of us were expecting for this winter. With the way the La Nina came back into play, I'll have to admit that I was definitely looking at the wrong analogs because I was not expecting anything close to this.....

[wxman57]

Still along ways out and getting late in the season but the GFS ensembles are finally showing a better blocking pattern in the 12-15 day range, with the Greenland Block connecting with the Alaskan Ridge...right about the time the MJO is getting into Phase 2, the coldest phase of them all for the US. Cross your fingers but Mid February will probably be the best chance we'll have all winter for winter weather

Good post and I would totally agree. I think around Feb. 8-10 we will begin a period of probably 10-14 days where the POTENTIAL will be there for a Texas winter event or two. After that climatology strongly suggests it will be time for spring. That's not to say there won't be a weird potential snow event for north Texas or certainly the Panhandle in early March. And we'll probably see a few strong cold fronts in March and early April. Always do ... but in terms of real winter excitement for a larger portion of the state, I think this mid February period is going to be it. Either it happens then or we pack up our bags and head into spring.

Agree - that's your last chance at some winter weather. Not looking TOO good, though, at this time. Only 27 more days until March.

[dhweather]

Today might have been the last below freezing day at my house for the year, we hit 29.


If it goes into a VERY rainy wet pattern, I'm good with that. I'll take lots of rain over wintry precip.

[Ntxw]

Today might have been the last below freezing day at my house for the year, we hit 29.


If it goes into a VERY rainy wet pattern, I'm good with that. I'll take lots of rain over wintry precip.

If this is true, it would be DFW's earliest last freeze ever on record. Quite a feat that would be!

[gboudx]

Today might have been the last below freezing day at my house for the year, we hit 29.


If it goes into a VERY rainy wet pattern, I'm good with that. I'll take lots of rain over wintry precip.

The year or the season? We'll probably get a freeze by late November or sometime in December.